10/23/2009 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/24

Email

Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet.  Hopefully, we'll end up with a tidy profit.

Friday's results:
Race 3:  PARK ACTION finished fourth
Race 5:  CHANTILLY NAYLA finished first
Race 6:  PROTESTING finished first

DETAILED STATISTICAL ANALYSIS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY'S CARD

Saturday, October 24, 2009

Race 1
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($80,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $29,000

Analysis:
REAGAN'S WILDCAT made career debut in a powerhouse maiden special weight that featured race winner Decelerator (next-out winner of Grade 3 Debutante at Churchill) and runner-up Hot Dixie Chick (returned to win three in a row including Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga).  Reagan's Wildcat broke slowly that day, and failed to change leads in the stretch over that sealed, sloppy track.  She goes out for a barn that is hitting on all cylinders with juvenile runners, drops a notch into a high maiden claimer, and switches to Robby Albarado. The dam was stakes-placed at two going a mile on turf with a 73 Beyer, and this $75,000 yearling can be a bit closer to the pace this afternoon.
GOLD DUST LADY finished ahead of four next-out winners when a very game second going a mile on grass at Ellis Park two back.  She battled on the lead with three other rivals, put them all away, and tried hard to the wire despite changing back to her wrong lead inside the sixteenth pole.  She disappointed as the chalk last time out at Turfway Park, but has hit the board in her last three races, owns valuable experience over polytrack, and the barn has amazing stats when adding blinkers for the first time (4-8, 50%, $7.79 ROI over the past year). 
THAT LUVIN FEELING makes career debut for good first-out barn (3-11 over past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic sprint maiden claimers), and is a half-sibling to stakes-placed turf performer South Beach Luv (finished second in the Hatoof at Arlington with a 76 Beyer).   The sire is only 1-28 with all debut runners in 2009, but That Luvin Feeling "went well under a nice snug hold," according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for October 19.  Six days earlier, the report noted that she went "in company with Life Begins, both were in restraint, difficult to separate."  Life Begins is an unraced juvenile filly by Unbridled's Song.  On October 6, she gave a "good energetic move, lightly ridden."  Expect a solid debut try.
SAINTLY WAYS and QUICKEN TEMPO are uncoupled stablemates trained by the underrated Rusty Arnold.  The latter was a $32,000 buyback as a yearling, draws a tough inside post, and has been in steady training since late June.  According to the Keeneland Clocker Report for October 12, Quicken Tempo was "going well at the finish, in company with Home Fries."  Home Fries is a maiden three year-old filly with a 66 Beyer top. 
Saintly Ways "was not asked for effort," according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for October 10.  Her dam, a $350,000 weanling purchase, is a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Polish Holiday.  LA BIEN ROSE was bet to favoritism for career debut at Ellis Park, but only finished evenly over the sloppy track.  The winner of that race returned to finish second in an entry-level allowance at Hoosier Park with a 57 Beyer. SOMEOTHERTIME, a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Jamie's First Punch (won Peter Pan with 110 Beyer), shows a bullet work out of the gate, and attracts Julien Leparoux.  She was bought back for $45,000 as a yearling.  LITEASAIRE shows some gaps in the worktab.  Her dam was a stakes-placed sprinter (third in the OBS Sprint with a 61 Beyer).

Selections:
1.  Reagan's Wildcat  2.  Gold Dust Lady  3.  That Luvin Feeling

The Play:
Reagan's Wildcat - Gold Dust Lady Exacta
Reagan's Wildcat - That Luvin Feeling Exacta


***

Race 5
1 Mile (Turf)
2-year-olds
Purse $52,000

Analysis:
LOST APTITUDE only finished 4 1/4 lengths behind eventual Dixiana Breeders' Futurity hero (Grade 1) Noble's Promise in career debut at Ellis Park, then showed improved speed when stretched out to this distance at Kentucky Downs.  He had that group strung out behind him over the soft going at Kentucky Downs (third-finisher was beaten 13 lengths, fourth-finisher beaten 19 1/4 lengths), and has a promising grass pedigree (dam finished second in the Grade 3 Mrs. Revere on grass with 96 Beyer while full sister ran third in the Grade 3 Regret with 93 Beyer).
SHOW THE WAY J was a speedy gate-to-wire winner going short in his turf debut at Belmont Park, but the son of sprint stallion Forest Camp and stakes-placed turf sprinter Unhurried will be tested in his initial two-turn appearance this afternoon.  Trainer Bill Mott has been heating up at the meet, and his charge seems to be finding his stride.  The Keeneland Clocker Report for October 20 noted that Show the Way J gave a "good performance, continues to train forwardly."  A week earlier, it was reported that he gave a "good energetic finish."  Expect him to be prominent when the real running begins. 
CAT PARK has turf bloodlines as his dam, Dynamic Cat, earned a 92 Beyer in winning the Mrs. Penny Stakes on the lawn at Philadelphia Park.  Cat Park adds blinkers for his first start off a short layoff, and may have to utilize rating tactics this afternoon.
EXHI coasted on an easy lead in his maiden win at Belmont two back, and then faced a tiger in uncoupled stablemate Interactif (Breeders' Cup-bound) in the Grade 3 Bourbon over this coruse 13 days ago.  He faces some other speeds in this spot, and may have to rate-and-finish in order to get his hoof raised.
OUR DOUGLAS goes out for shrewd barn, and picks up Leparoux after a popular maiden win at Arlington Park. He was "full of energy, in company with Keertana," according to the October 5 clocker report.  Keertana is a three-year-old filly that won the Grade 3 Regret on grass earlier in the year.  According to the Keeneland Clocker Report for October 12, he was "well restrained."  Don't sell him short.  MARATHON MOON finished behind JUSTAMATTEROFTIME in his only prior turf outing, and is a speed horse that may be compromised by the expected solid pace scenario.  Justamatteroftime's lone win came over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs.  LETSGETITONMON finished behind Family Foundation in his turf debut at Arlington, and was flattered somewhat when that rival returned to finish third behind Interactif in the Bourbon with an 80 Beyer.  He wouldn't be the worst longshot stab.  DOWNS AWARENESS must improve off low-figure win at Retama.  FLATTER THAN ME reportedly missed nine days of training before the Grade 2 Saratoga Special with a temperature, and he bombed in his two races since the illness.  He may be the controlling speed in his first turf try, but his sire is only 2-56 with first-time grass runners.  According to the October 12 clocker report, he gave a "good work in even splits."

Selections:
1.  Lost Aptitude  2.  Show the Way J  3.  Cat Park

The Play:
Lost Aptitude to Win and Place at 4-1 odds or greater (turf only)

***

Race 6
6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Starter Allowance ($40,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $29,000

Analysis:
WORKIN FOR HOPS dominated a maiden claiming field in his career debut at Arlington Park, and the runner-up that day came right back to graduate for a $50,000 tag at Keeneland with a 59 Beyer Speed Figure.  He went right to the front in that Chicago heat, but may have to work harder in the early stages of this tougher spot.  Still, he owns a huge edge in the Beyers, and the October 13 clocker report noted that he "went nicely under control." 
PERFECT DRIVE looked good winning his $40,000 maiden claimer at Arlington as he had to go fast early, and still drew away to win by nine over three next-out winners (including two that earned Beyers in the 70's).  Expect him to be up and on the pace once again.
HORST will make his synthetic track debut this afternoon, but his stalking style should fit nicely in this speed-laden heat, and he beat three next-out winners (and two next-out runner-ups) on July 26 at Ellis Park. 
CANOOK was no match for Horst at Ellis, but he went on to eventually defeat special weight company at Hoosier Park.  He's another stalker that would benefit from hot splits up front.  Note that three of the horses he beat on September 3 returned to finish second. 
MOON NISTLE was thrown in against some solid juveniles after winning his maiden three back over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs.  Two back, he was sent to Saratoga, where he gave an even performance in the slop behind entrymate, and eventual Louisiana Stallion Stakes winner, Red Rally.  Last time out, he went very fast early before succumbing to Liston, a Storm Cat homebred owned by Darley Stable that looks stakes-bound.  Moon Nistle should fit well against these lesser lights.
ZAVILL raced wide in the slop last time out, and can improve switching back to synthetics in his second start of the form cycle.  BETTER GO HIDE may be the main speed after setting quick splits on grass at Ellis Park last time out.  There's a good possibility that he'll face at least some pressure in this spot, and that could doom him to a minor trophy.  BLUERIBBONBREW tries synthetics for the first time after a tough trip on dirt at Monmouth Park.  This barn shows excellent stats with juvenile runners.  LON'S HONOR faltered badly in first start against winners, but may improve switching back to synthetics.  MAMOOSE earned some blacktype winning his maiden in the Iowa Stallion Futurity, and he ran into a strong bunch on turf at Arlington last time out.

Selections:  1.  Workin for Hops  2.  Perfect Drive  3.  Horst

The Play: 
Workin for Hops - Perfect Drive Exacta
Workin for Hops - Horst Exacta

***

Race 7
1 1/18 Miles (Polytrack)
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
LONESOME STREET made his career debut in a tough maiden special weight at Saratoga that included a pair of next-out winners as well as Aikenite, who returned to place in a pair of graded races, and is Breeders' Cup Juvenile-bound.  Most recently, Lonesome Street ran a game mile on the grass behind Lost Aptitude, the "Keeneland Baby" selection in today's fifth race.  There is some class in the female family as the dam, a $735,000 yearling by Storm Cat, is a half-sister to Grade 2 winner Union Avenue (95 Beyer in the American Derby on grass at 1 3/16 miles).  Lonesome Street gets a big rider switch to Julien Leparoux, and should be close by when the real running starts.
DROSSELMEYER couldn't overcome Exhi's pace advantage going 1 1/16 miles on turf at Belmont, but the $600,000 son of Distorted Humor had a pretty good trip himself, saving ground in the pocket position before finishing evenly along the inside for the place.  This is a half to Stage Luck, the winner of the Affectionately Handicap on dirt at 1 1/16 miles with a 91 Beyer. 
GOLD MEDALLION exits a quick turf race at the Meadowlands, but like Drosselmeyer, was able to save ground most of the way while racing in behind the leader.  This son of Medaglia d'Oro has some ability, but still seems a bit green as he flipped back to his wrong lead in the waning stages.  He has trained over a synthetic surface for Steve Klesaris, and should be among the pacesetters. 
HARRODS CREEK rallied belatedly for third in the $200,000 Cradle Stakes on dirt at River Downs, but may need a bit more pace to properly setup his late kick. 
INCREDIBLY GIFTED finished behind HEART BUTTE on October 4 at Turfway Park.  The former, kin to several blacktype earners, made a wide move before finishing evenly while Heart Butte, a Todd Pletcher-trained colt rallied well for second after a slow start.  Expect Heart Butte to do better with that experience under his girth. PSYCHIC INCOME made career debut in a quality turf race at Saratoga as the runner-up returned to impressively win the off-the-turf Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont with a 90 Beyer.  Psychic Income broke poorly that day, but has a stout pedigree, and can move forward for hot barn.  He reportedly was no match for stablemate Bridgetown during the October 17 workout.  Bridgetown won the graded Summer Stakes on turf at Woodbine in his most recent start.  ENON goes second off the layoff after finishing behind Heart Butte and Incredibly Gifted.  LOST SOUL is expected to show improved speed, but he has to successfully stretch out 3 1/2 furlongs in only his second lifetime start.  He worked "in company with Coffee Run, these two finished well as a team," according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for October 17.  Coffee Run, a Pletcher-trained filly, finished a well-beaten eighth on Friday afternoon.  LET'S DO IT tired badly in first start over the surface.  MAGIC BULLET draws a tough outside post position.  BODYNE was no match for Lonesome Street on grass.

Selections:
1.  Lonesome Street  2.  Drosselmeyer  3.  Gold Medallion

The Play:
Lonesome Street to Win at 2-1 odds or greater

***

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):  27-6-11 (+ $17.20)