10/20/2008 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/22

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully add to the profits from "Spa Babies."

Sunday's result:
Race 4: Last Martini finished eighth

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Race 5
About 7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Allowance (SALW $40,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $30,000

Analysis:
Both of HUG IT OUT's lifetime Beyer Speed Figures are better than anything the rest of the field have ever run, and she should be prominent from the outset under Robby Albarado. She promped the pace while three wide here 18 days ago, and tried all the way to the wire to finish behind a 13-10 favored winner while almost nine lengths clear of the third-finisher. She looms a deserving favorite.
SEISMIC SHIFT pulled off a 19-1 shocker here earlier in the meet,and she overcame the outside post at this demanding seven furlong distance to do it. She has a solid late kick, and may be the one charging at the chalk in the lane.
ORO GATITA rallied professionally to defeat maiden claimers over Arlington's polytrack, and has been given a pair of stamina-building five furlong workouts in preparation for her seven furlong debut. If someone runs with Hug It Out early, Oro Gatita may take full advantage from just off the pace.
ROMIN ROBIN adds Lasix after a green performance in the grassy Tippett Stakes at Colonial Downs. It's nice to see the string of five furlong workouts leading to her return, and the rider switch to Rene Douglas looks like a positive one. MOLEEN was a gate-to-wire winner over this trip, but may face more pace pressure breaking from the rail. SECRET SPELL needed a drop to $25,000 maiden claimers over Hawthorne's dirt course in order to win her maiden. Her previous synthetic starts were disappointments. FERVENT HOPE won by open lengths in her synthetic debut at Turfway, but that race was around two turns. She's quick from the gate, and may go after Hug It Out early. STONE RUNNER won her debut by 10 lengths at 34-1, but gets the acid test stepping up to face winners. MEGGIDO needs a slight Beyer boost to threaten the top pick.

Selections:
1. Hug It Out
2. Seismic Shift
3. Oro Gatita

The Play:
Hug It Out-Seismic Shift Exacta
Hug It Out - Oro Gatita Exacta

***

Race 6
1 1/8 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

1. Lydia's Smile (Maria's Mon - Lazy Slusan, by Slewvescent)
Trainer: Victoria Oliver
- Foaled February 24, 2006 in Kentucky
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner (7-4-1-1, $507,140, 4-5 at two, 2-3 in main track routes)
- sire is 106-779 (14%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a multiple Grade 1 winner (47-12-7-10, $1,150,410, 3-6 at two, 5-15 in main track routes)
- dam has three runners, one winner, three juvenile runners, one juvenile winner, at least one main track route runner
- second dam is stakes-placed Three Flights Up (28-3-4-2, $75,865, 1-2 at two, 0-5 in main track routes)
- trainer is 2-10 (20%, $1.62 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 0-3 over the past five years with second-time juveniles at Keeneland

2. With Touch (With Approval - Miss U Mama, by Minshaanshu Amad)
Trainer: Luis Seglin
- Foaled April 11, 2006 in Kentucky
- $6,500 short yearling (Keeneland January 2007)
- sire was a multiple Grade 2 turf winner (23-13-5-1, $2,863,540, 2-2 at two, 5-9 in main track routes)
- sire is 96-855 (11%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a route winner in the mud (17-2-2-0, $23,790, 0-5 at two, 2-8 in main track routes, cost $6,700 as a yearling)
- dam has six runners, three winners, five juvenile runners, one juvenile winner, six main track route runners, one main track route winner
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Mugassas is Queen (15-2-2-1, $16,910, 1-2 at two, 0-2 in main track routes)
- trainer is 1-11 (9%, $3.31 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles

3. True Bliss (Yes It's True - Brief Bliss, by Navarone)
Trainer: John Kimmel
- Foaled March 2, 2006 in Kentucky
- half-sister to multiple stakes-winning turfer Cherokee Triangle (11-4-2-1, $286,575, 2-6 at two, 0-1 in main track routes)
- $160,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner (22-11-2-3, $1,080,700, 5-9 at two, 0-4 in main track routes)
- sire is 104-693 (15%) with juvenile runners
- dam was Grade 3-placed at two (10-1-4-0, $50,678, 1-7 at two, 0-4 in main track routes)
- dam has three runners, two winners, three juvenile runners, one juvenile winner, two main track route runners, no main track route winners
- trainer is 39-237 (16%, $2.19 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles
- trainer is 1-8 (13%, $1.95 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles at Keeneland

4. More Than Grand (More Than Ready - Grandstone, by Grindstone)
Trainer: Byron Hughes
- Foaled April 1, 2006 in Kentucky
- $115,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner (17-7-4-1, $1,026,229, 5-7 at two, 0-8 in main track routes)
- sire is 98-642 (15%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a route winner (8-1-0-2, $39,053, unraced at two, 1-7 in main track routes, cost $170,000 as a yearling)
- dam has three runners, two winners, three juvenile runners, one juvenile winner, three main track route runners, one main track route winner
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winning router Wheelaway (7-2-1-1, $249,760, unraced at two, 2-6 in main track routes)
-trainer is 2-35 (6%, $1.33 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles
- trainer is 0-4 over the past five years with juveniles

5. Sweet Dahlia (Orientate - Dahlia's Image, by Lyphard)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
- Foaled March 16, 2006 in Kentucky
- $37,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- half-sister to stakes-placed River Image (67-6-9-7, $133,413, unraced at two, 1-17 in main track routes)
- half-sister to stakes-placed Dahlia's Krissy (19-5-3-3, $138,904, unraced at two, 0-1 in main track routes)
-sire was a multiple Grade 1 sprint winner (19-10-3-0, $1,716,950, 0-2 at two, 1-5 in main track routes)
- sire is 55-330 (17%) with juvenile runners
- dam was stakes-placed on turf in France (17-0-6-1, $52,341, 0-1 at two)
- dam has 10 runners, four winners, five juvenile runners, one juvenile winner, 10 main track route runners, two main track route winners
- dam a half-sister to Grade 1-placed Decadrachm (44-6-4-8, $231,581, 0-1 at two)
- dam a full sister to multiple Grade/Group 1 turf winner Dahar (29-7-6-4, $1,207,286, 0-1 at two)
- dam a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 turf winner Rivlia (41-9-2-8, $1,005,041, 1-3 at two, all races on turf)
- dam a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner Delegant (36-7-2-7, $623,941, unraced at two, 1-3 in main track routes)
- dam a three-quarter sister to Group 2 turf winner Wajd (13-4-0-4, $229,342, unraced at two, all races on turf)
- dam a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner Dahlia's Dreamer (22-5-7-3, $333,956, unraced at two, 1-2 in main track routes)
- dam a full sister to Grade 2 turf winner Llandaff (16-5-3-1, $245,365, 0-2 at two, 0-1 in main track routes)
- trainer is 142-556 (25%, $1.84 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 9-23 (39%, $2.91 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles at Keeneland

6. Ruth E (A.P. Indy - Ajina, by Strawberry Road)
Trainer: William Mott
- Foaled March 5, 2006 in Kentucky
- half-sister to stakes-winner Manchurian (9-3-2-0, $125,575, unraced at two, 1-6 in main track routes)
- full sister to stakes-placed turfer Jinni (13-3-2-1, $132,210, 1-2 at two, 1-4 in main track routes)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner (11-8-0-1, $2,979,815, 3-4 at two, 7-9 in main track routes)
- sire is 142-823 (17%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (17-7-3-2, $1,327,915, 3-4 at two, 6-14 in main track routes)
- dam has three runners, two winners, two juvenile runners, one juvenile winner, two main track route runners, two main track route winners
- dam a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 turf winner Rob's Spirit (14-4-1-2, $249,960, 1-1 at two, all races on turf)
- trainer is 30-182 (16%, $1.38 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 3-14 (21%, $1.19 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles at Keeneland

7. Gold Indy (A.P. Indy - Girl of Gold, by Seeking the Gold)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Foaled February 8, 2006 in Kentucky
- $500,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner (11-8-0-1, $2,979,815, 3-4 at two, 7-9 in main track routes)
- sire is 142-823 (17%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unraced
- dam has four runners, one winner, three juvenile runners, no juvenile winners, two main track route runners, no main track route winners
- A.P. Indy - Seeking the Gold 'nick' has produced juvenile stakes-winning router Catch the Thrill (12-3-3-0, $290,167, 2-5 at two, 2-6 in main track routes)
- A.P. Indy - Seeking the Gold 'nick' has produced multiple Grade 2 route winner Lu Ravi (26-11-8-3, $1,819,781, 0-2 at two, 11-25 in main track routes)
- A.P. Indy - Seeking the Gold has produced juvenile Grade 1 sprint winner Majestic Warrior (7-2-0-0, $239,229, 0-3 in main track routes)
- dam a half-sister to turf stakes-winner (Ireland) Bravo Fox (14-3-0-1, $30,997, 1-6 at two)
- dam a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Fantastic Look (23-7-8-2, $681,247, 2-4 at two, 5-16 in main track routes)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Fantastic Ways (14-4-2-4, $168,250, 2-2 in main track routes)
- dam a half-siter to stakes-winner Majestic Style (15-4-2-0, $135,275, 1-1 at two, 0-3 in main track routes)
- trainer is 75-314 (24%, $1.40 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 2-10 (20%, $1.52 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles at Keeneland

8. It's Tiffin Time (Najran - Asta Pasta, by Nijinsky's Secret)
Trainer: Larry Demeritte
- Foaled March 27, 2006 in Kentucky
- $27,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- half-sister to stakes-winner Lil Mitch (28-3-4-2, $152,382, unraced at two, 1-11 in main track routes)
- sire was a multiple Grade 3 winner (15-7-2-1, $483,448, 0-1 at two, 3-6 in main track routes)
- sire is 12-126 (10%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unraced (cost $5,000 as a yearling)
- dam has five runners, three winners, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners, four main track route runners, two main track route winners
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Justalittleshower (15-4-2-2, $108,109, 0-1 at two, 1-9 in main track routes)
- trainer is 9-136 (7%, $0.79 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles
- trainer is 0-20 over the past five years with juveniles at Keeneland

9. Sue's Update (Medaglia d'Oro - Sue's Good News, by Woodman)
Trainer: Steve Hobby
- Foaled January 23, 2006 in Kentucky
- first-crop sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (17-8-7-0, $5,754,720, 0-1 at two, 7-14 in main track routes)
- sire is 18-91 (20%) with juvenile runners in 2008
- dam was a Grade 3 winner (17-6-1-1, $218,078, unraced at two, 3-9 in main track routes, cost $45,000 as a yearling)
- this is dam's first runner
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Easyfromthegitgo (23-4-7-2, $695,056, 2-5 at two, 3-18 in main track routes)
- trainer is 7-110 (6%, $0.77 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles
- trainer is 0-6 over the past five years with juveniles at Keeneland

Analysis:
IT'S TIFFIN TIME returns to reality after an ill-advised run in the Jessamine Stakes on the grass. She broke from the far outside that day, and was outrun after moving to the rail on the backstretch. Her previous polytrack races look solid, and she can be closer to the expected moderate pace.
TRUE BLISS looms the horse to beat as her good tactical speed should have her forwardly-placed. She hasn't gained ground from the stretch call to the wire in her last four races, however, and this daughter of top sprinter Yes It's True must navigate nine furlongs here.
GOLD INDY ran on late for a minor award in her career debut at Saratoga, and is bred to appreciate this added distance. She wouldn't be a surprise for Team Pletcher.
RUTH E has a wonderful, stamina-based pedigree, and Bill Mott excels with second-time starters. SUE'S UPDATE just missed on the grass, and we've seen turf form successfully transfer to this polytrack. MORE THAN GRAND improved with the addition of Lasix at Kentucky Downs, but faces a tough bunch. LYDIA'S SMILE draws a good, ground-saving post, and she may not have cared for yielding turf in her debut. SWEET DAHLIA may have been just a bit short in her career debut, and can be expected to improve for top connections. WITH TOUCH may need weaker.

Selections:
1. It's Tiffin Time
2. True Bliss
3. Gold Indy

The Play:
It's Tiffin Time to Win at 2-1 or greater

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):
37-7-14 (+ $10.80)