10/20/2007 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/21

EmailWelcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully will add to the Keeneland Spring and Spa Baby profits.

Saturday’s results:
Race 3: Dynaffair finished sixth
Race 4: Isabull finished sixth
Race 5: Lady Hillingdon finished fifth

Detailed statistical breakdown will return for Wednesday's card.

Sunday, October 21, 2007

Race 1
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($50,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $22,000

Analysis: CHIEF MENA has devoured a lot of money during her short career, but she deserves one more chance dropping in for a tag for the first time on Sunday. She didn't break well last time out at Mountaineer, made a solid three wide move on the far turn, and was in a tad tight in upper stretch. She still rallied for the place that evening, and can work out an outside stalking trip in this spot.
CHASING DREAMS is by a hot first-crop sire out of a winning three-quarter sister to Flanders so we have to wonder why she only sold for $40,000 as a juvenile. You have to respect the pedigree, and she'll deserve extra attention if she takes early money at the windows. GETAHERO is working very well for her career debut, but trainer Dallas Stewart is only 1-33 with debut runners in 2007. She may have the bloodlines to succeed in polytrack sprints with a fairly-precocious sire (won career debut) on top of the pedigree, and a turf family on the bottom.
COURT APPARATION takes a needed drop in class after failing to ride a speed-biased Ellis Park strip to a winning effort. Perhaps she'll improve reverting to stalking tactics. FLEW PAST EM wasn't disgraced in her career debut at Arlington for a tag, then may have bitten off more than she could chew against special weights at Hawthorne. There are a few angles here as she drops for the second start off the bench for a win-early barn. PEEP SHOW chased a runaway winner en route to a much-improved showing in initial start over polytrack. Perhaps the daughter of Silver Deputy has finally found the surface of her dreams. She has some bomb potential.

1. Chief Mena
2. Chasing Dreams
3. Getahero

The play: Chief Mena to win at 5-2 or more

Race 5
1 1/8 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
Purse $50,000

Analysis: BOLD INITIATIVE raced far back in the early stages of his career debut before uncorking a five wide move on the turn. It's understandable that he flattened out a bit in the late stages, and trainer Eric Reed excels with second-time juvenile starters (14-36, 39%, $4.39 ROI over the past five years). The winner of that Presque Isle Downs heat returned to take a 'n1x' allowance here yesterday.
CELESTIAL COMET was late to change leads when the beaten favorite on Meadowlands sod, but it's possible that the addition of blinkers will allow him to focus better on the task at hand. He's stuck way outside, however, and must avoid being hung out wide going into the first turn. SIR JOCK raced very greenly at Saratoga, and then never got involved when placed in tough in the NATC Futurity. He makes the two sprints to a route move, and should be close to the early pace.
GREAT SHOT rallied despite trouble going short, and may show improved speed with the addition of blinkers. That race was the slower division of maiden special weights at Turfway Park that day, but trainer Dallas Stewart does better wtih second-time starters than with firsters. WHAT A PLACE has a race over the surface, but his apparent lack of early speed may work against him in this spot. STORM CATCH raced greenly at Saratoga, but the $600,000 yearling purchase faced a salty group that day, and he should move forward with that experience under his girth.

1. Bold Initiative
2. Celestial Comet
3. Sir Jock

The play: Bold Initiative to win and place at 9-2 odds or more

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager): 34-7-16, (-$5.40)