Updated on 09/13/2011 9:25PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/20

EmailWelcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully will add to the Keeneland Spring and Spa Baby profits.

Friday’s results:
Race 2: Workinonthrailroad scratched; second choice Targe finished first
Race 4: Bob's Star finished second
Race 6: Cambridge Blue finished fifth

Detailed statistical breakdown will return for Sunday's card.

Satuday, October 20, 2007

Race 3
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis: DYNAFFAIR'S dam won the Group 1 Fillies' Mile at two with a 111 Racing Post Rating, and trainer Ronny Werner is showing a flat-bet profit with his debut runners in 2007. While this pedigree leans strongly towards success on the grass, we've seen babies with turf bloodlines succeed on polytrack. It's possible she may want a bit more ground, but she'll offer value considering the connections and pedigree.
MY SWEET VALOR goes out for an Asmussen barn that has already sent out 32 debut runners to victory this season. A daughter of top first-crop sire Vindication, My Sweet Valor shows long workouts in preparation for her career debut, and her dam cost $1,000,000 as a yearling. Like the top selection, AMARETTA'S WAY has a strong turf pedigree. Her sire was a multiple Group 1 winner in Europe, and the dam was Grade 3-placed on grass. Trainer David Carroll is an underrated debut trainer, however, and his charge should offer plenty of value.
ONE FOR THE ROSES is marooned way outside, but her female family is chock-full of quality sprinters. The dam won six races at under a mile in distance, and One for the Roses is a half-sister to sprint stakes-winner Sleetwood Mac (18 sprint wins, 287K in earnings), and Grade 1-placed juvenile Heavyweight Champ. PICARDIE is bred both sides for speed, and half-sister Trick's Pic placed twice in Grade 3 company. The inside post is somewhat concerning, though. MOTHER JOAN has the experience edge over her main competition, and she figures among the pacesetters in this spot. She exits a key race won by Tequilas Dayjur, who came right back to win at Keeneland with an 80 Beyer. KID SOUP adds Lasix for the second start, and that is a very potent angle in maiden races. She faced three next-out winners, including Arlington-Washington Lassie heroine Dreaming of Liz, at Arlington, and wouldn't be a surprise.

1. Dynaffair
2. My Sweet Valor
3. Amaretta's Way

The play: Dynaffair to win and place at 5-1 odds or more

Race 4
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Allowance (N1X)
Purse $52,000

Analysis: ISABULL showed vast improvement with the addition of Lasix for his second lifetime start. He tracked the early leader while saving ground, then split horses to take command midway on the far turn. He stayed straight in the stretch, earned a solid Beyer Speed Figure, and projects for a nice ground-saving, pace-tracking trip in this two-turn test.
HORSE DOCTOR raced three wide going into the first turn of the Kentucky Cup Juvenile, then was spun widest turning for home. He loomed a threat in midstretch before flattening out, and should benefit from that experience. He drops in class here, switches to Calvin Borel, and should save some ground. There seems to be enough pace to setup his late kick. BIG GLEN showed a nice stretch surge to win his career debut, and trainer Frank Brothers has given him a pair of stamina-building works leading up to his route debut. He may work out a nice stalking trip while in the clear.
TEJANOS ELIMINATOR raced greenly in the stretch of his maiden win at Presque Isle Downs, but showed good tactical speed that day, and Ken McPeek has sent out some live runners at this meet. MOTION TO STRIKE dominated Delaware maidens when sent around two turns for the first time. He shows a bullet workout over this surface, and looms a solid contender for extremely capable barn.

1. Isabull
2. Horse Doctor
3. Big Glen

The play: No play

Race 5
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis: LADY HILLINGDON's workouts on September 4, and September 11 match up with Steve Asmussen's Diamondaire, a recent juvenile debut winner at Remington Park. A half-sister to juvenile debut winner Shimmering Crystal out of Grade 3-placed juvenile sprinter Tricky Elaine, Lady Hillington shows a solid string of five-furlong workouts for this assignment.
ELUSIVE SPARKLE is a half-sister to Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Street Sense, and she's been working in company for her debut. She may want a bit more ground, and must avoid a wide trip from the far outside post, but her sire, Elusive Quality, does good work with firsters. SHEZA BOTHA OURS worked swiftly from the gate here on October 6.
FAUZETA popped and stopped on Saratoga turf, but that field kicked on strongly for home, and she simply couldn't keep pace late. Expect her to be in contention once again when they turn for home. The dam was a stakes-winner on the main track. BALLET D'AMOUR raced on a deep rail in her career debut at Turfway, and may try to carve out the fractions here. She's a half to stakes-winner Taletobetold (226K in earning). MAGGER BAGS was stymied by a speed-favoring track in the slower division of maiden special weights at Saratoga. She put in a quick half-mile move from the gate over the surface, and Dallas Stewart does better with second-time starters than with debuters. NADESHIKO is a full sister to crack sprinter Battle Won.

1. Lady Hillingdon
2. Elusive Sparkle
3. Sheza Botha Ours

The play: Lady Hillingdon to win at 9-2 or more

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager): 31-7-16, (+$0.60)