10/16/2009 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/18

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet.  Hopefully, we'll end up with a tidy profit.

Friday's results:
Race 4:  Apple Charlotte scratched;  second choice Wyn Jyn finished sixth
Race 8:  Star Recruit finished second

DETAILED STATISTICAL ANALYSIS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Race 9
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
EXXEL shows solid workouts, a classy pedigree, and will debut for a barn that does well with first-time starters on synthetic surfaces.  Notable siblings include Lindsay Jean (Grade 3 winner of grassy Brown Bess Handicap at 1 1/16 miles with 97 Beyer), Crozet (Bay Meadows Oaks winners at 1 1/16 miles on grass with 85 Beyer), and Honour Colony (Lady Canterbury winner at 1 mile on turf with 94 Beyer).  Bought back for $45,000 as a weanling, he sold to Padua Stables last year for $180,000, and "finished well, a bit better than workmate Blue Whistler," according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for October 11.  Blue Whistler is a three-year-old colt with an 86 Beyer top on his record. 
AMERICAN LION, a WinStar Farm homebred from the family of Grade 1-winning juvenile City Band, raced three wide and in between horses during the early stages of his career debut at Arlington Park.  He made a three wide bid to get into contention on the turn, but was under a heavy drive a long way out, and was a bit late to change leads in the stretch.  That was the faster division of a pair of juvenile maiden special weights, and the winner of that race returned to finish second here in a 'n2L' allowance with an 82 Beyer.  American Lion has caught the attention of the Keeneland Clockers.  He "continues to train forwardly" (October 1), "was just galloping" (October 7), and "gets the edge on stablemate Kettle River, both went nicely in hand" (October 13).  Juvenile colt Kettle River finished sixth with a 66 Beyer in his lone start to date at Saratoga.
TRUCHAN finished ahead of a next-out winner when second to well-meant firster Raging Wit (next-out fourth in the Grade 3 Bourbon on turf at Keeneland), and the son of Stephen Got Even should go better with that experience under his girth.  Expect some more early speed in this spot. 
Barring a quick first-time starter, KEY LARGO may assume the role of pacesetter.  He comes out of the slower division of maiden special weights at Arlington on September 13, but runs for hot connections, and should be prominent when they turn for home. The dam is kin to Grade 1 sprint winner Mass Media.
MT. FUGI just missed going two turns at Presque Isle Downs, and the quick blowout work at Thistledown shows that he is being trained for more speed as he cuts back in distance.  A half-brother to Grade 3 sprint winner Cashel Castle, Mt. Fugi needs a Beyer boost to contend for win honors.  DOC THUNDERBOLT only finished 2 3/4 lengths behind eventual Dixiana Breeders' Futurity winner Noble's Promise in his career debut during the Keeneland Spring Meeting, and it's possible that he didn't care for the wet tracks he faced in his last two races.  He can be a forward factor with an alert break.  BAYOU PALACE is a half to a pair of multiple stakes-placed runners.  Bought back for $130,000 as a September yearling, and for $45,000 the following month, the workouts fail to entice, and he may need a race.  POSITIVE SPLIT finished well to be second behind even-money debut winner Kera's Kitten at Kentucky Downs, and receives a solid rider switch to Robby Albarado.  This barn has done very well with young horses at this meet.  ROMAN RACECAR gets the Lasix and blinkers makeover after bombing as the favorite in his career debut on dirt at Churchill Downs.  The winner of that race returned to finish third in the Grade 2 Sanford at Saratoga.  With his pedigree (dam a Grade 1 winner, half-sibling to multiple stakes-placed runner), it's too early to give up on him.  RADICAL SWING and SCHWARTZBEWITHYOU may need a race.

Selections:
1.  Exxel  2.  American Lion  3.  Truchan

The Play:
Exxel to Win and Place at 6-1 odds or greater

***

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):  18-3-6 (+ $22.80)