10/16/2007 12:00AM

Keeneland Babies for 10/17

EmailWelcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully will add to the Keeneland Spring and Spa Baby profits.

Sunday’s results:
Race 3: Nightnightnight finished eighth
Race 6: Sweetness ‘n Light finished first
Race 7: Saratoga Seven finished fifth

Week 1 recap: Nistle’s Crunch’s $11 place price on Opening Day kept us in the hunt for a profitable meet, but it would be nice to actually isolate a winner for a change (9-0-3, -$1.00)

Week 2 recap: Hidden Leader’s debut win at 8-1 sparked a comeback, but somewhat conservative play cost me further profits (24-6-12, +$2.60)

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Race 2
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($50,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $22,000

1. Swinging Silver (Silver Charm – Swing City, by Carson City)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
- Foaled February 20, 2005 in Kentucky
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (24-12-7-2, $6,944,369, 2-3 at two)
- sire is 53-430 (12%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a sprint winner at two (1-1-0-0, $9,600)
- dam has two runners, one winner, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed Got That Swing (63-7-13-6, $168,225, unraced at two)
- trainer is 4-15 (27%, $1.97 ROI) over the last five years with juveniles dropping into maiden claimers
- trainer is 1-2 (50%, $4.40 ROI) with Keeneland Babies dropping into maiden claimers

2. Pish Posh (Mutakddim – Sweet Sultana, by Shadeed)
Trainer: Eddie Kenneally
- Foaled April 2, 2005 in Kentucky
- half-sister to stakes-placed Sultan of Spin (42-6-7-4, $153,102, 0-4 at two)
- sire was a stakes-winner on turf in England (17-5-3-2, $126,174, 1-3 at two)
- sire is 98-573 (17%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a turf winner (19-3-4-4, $107,201, unraced at two, cost $50,000 as a yearling)
- dam has six runners, three winners, three juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Chaztains Glotan (62-10-12-12, $114,159, 0-8 at two), and Grade 3-placed Pach to Batan (36-5-12-2, $101,662, 1-6 at two)
- trainer is 2-9 (22%, $1.16 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping into maiden claimers

3. First Lady Glenna (Talk Is Money – Afleet Fatale, by Afleet)
Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
- Foaled May 6, 2005 in Kentucky
- $52,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Steiners Baby Girl (13-2-0-3, $53,250, 0-1 at 2)
- sire was a stakes-winner (7-2-1-1, $104,110, 1-1 at two, won debut)
- sire is 6-53 (11%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 2-22 (9%, $1.20 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was stakes-placed (22-2-3-4, $88,863, 0-6 at two)
- dam has four runners, four winners, three juvenile runners, one juvenile winner
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Hardly (19-1-6-3, $31,049), multiple stakes-winner Rock Softly (49-6-8-10, $346,925), and Italian stakes-placed juvenile The Quiet Don (12-3-2-3, $20,575, 3-8 at two)
- Afleet is 2-38 (5%, $1.75 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 13-152 (9%, $1.82 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 3-30 (10%, $1.73 ROI) with debuting Keeneland Babies
- trainer is 4-39 (10%, $1.80 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007

4. Southern Devil (Devil His Due – Run Caroline Run, by Pentelicus)
Trainer: Dale Romans
- Foaled March 4, 2005 in Kentucky
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (41-11-12-3, $3,920,405, unraced at two)
- sire is 116-980 (12%) with juvenile runners
- dam was placed sprinting at two (3-0-0-1, $2,690, all races at two, cost $25,000 as a juvenile)
- dam has two runners, no winners, one juvenile runner
- trainer is 3-21 (14%, $1.14 ROI) over the past five years dropping into maiden claimers
- trainer is 0-4 with Keeneland Babies dropping into maiden claimers

5. Kayla Do (Silver Charm – Weepnomoremylady, by Summer Squall)
Trainer: Hugh Robertson
- Foaled April 6, 2005 in Kentucky
- $25,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (24-12-7-2, $6,944,369, 2-3 at two)
- sire is 53-430 (12%) with juvenile runners
- dam was stakes-placed on turf (13-5-1-1, $118,380, 1-3 at two)
- dam has two runners, one winner, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Lovat’s Lady (8-3-2-2, $97,905, unraced at two)
- trainer is 8-41 (20%, $1.66 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles

6. Birdgirl (Stravinsky – Sign Here, by Private Terms)
Trainer: William Mott
- Foaled February 22, 2005 in Kentucky
- $15,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2005)
- $14,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- sire was a Group 1 winner on turf in England (8-3-1-1, $361,450, 1-3 at two)
- sire is 28-242 (12%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a sprint winner (6-1-0-0, $27,938, 0-1 at two, cost $140,000 as a yearling)
- dam has two runners, one winner, two juvenile runners, one juvenile winner
- dam a half-sister to British Group 3-placed juvenile turfer Missel (14-1-0-3, 1-3 at two), and turf stakes-winner Royal Shyness (18-5-2-3, $193,660, 1-4 at two)
- trainer is 1-5 (20%, $1.00 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles dropping into maiden claimers

7. Silver Lullaby (Najran – Million Stories, by Exclusive Native)
Trainer: Helen Pitts
- Foaled March 22, 2005 in Kentucky
- half-sister to Grade 3 winner Tubrok (41-5-12-8, $317,930, 1-6 at two)
- first-crop sire was a multiple Grade 3 winner (15-7-2-1, $483,448, 0-1 at two)
- sire is 5-49 (10%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a winner on turf in France (9-1-0-0, $13,632, 0-1 at two)
- dam has nine runners, seven winners, seven juvenile runners, three juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to French Group 3-placed turfer Sugar Walls (3-1-1-0, $22,773, all races at two), French Group 1 winner Pearl Bracelet (2-1-0-1, $168,399, 0-1 at two), and multiple stakes-placed European turfer Forest Buck (23-7-3-3, $145,643, 1-1 at two)
- trainer is 1-6 (17%, $1.13 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles dropping into maiden claimers
- trainer is 0-1 with Keeneland Babies dropping into maiden claimers

8. Tiz Only Fair (Tiznow – Lady Fair, by Sea Hero)
Trainer: Manuel Uriza
- Foaled February 2, 2005 in Florida
- $18,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (15-8-4-2, $6,427,830, unraced at two)
- sire is 39-221 (18%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a route winner (11-4-0-1, $30,070, unraced at two, cost $9,500 as a yearling, and $35,000 as a juvenile)
- dam has four runners, three winners, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Woodman’s Kris (30-2-4-6, $132,100, unraced at two), and stakes-winner Camp On Wood (24-5-2-4, $161,833, unraced at two)
- trainer is 0-3 over the past five years with juveniles adding blinkers

9. Rodella Bolero (Lido Palace – Flashy Bold Lady, by Bold n’ Flashy)
Trainer: Wayne Martin
- Foaled January 20, 2005 in Florida
- $14,000 weanling (OBS Fall October 2005)
- withdrawn short yearling (OBS Winter January 2006)
- withdrawn yearling (OBS Open August 2006)
- first-crop sire was a multiple Grade/Group 1 winner (23-11-7-2, $2,705,865, 3-6 at two)
- sire is 1-28 (4%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unraced (cost $7,500 as a yearling)
- dam has two runners, one winner, two juvenile runners, one juvenile winner
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Katherine of Ascot (28-7-1-5, $307,500, 1-2 at two)
- trainer is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juveniles

10. Bar Fly Blues (Hold for Gold – Connie Bar, by Conquistador Cielo)
Trainer: Michael Tomlinson
- Foaled April 24, 2005 in Kentucky
- full sister to stakes-placed sprinter Medicine Eyes (40-10-4-4, $179,044, 1-1 at two)
- sire was unraced
- sire is 14-141 (10%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a route winner (19-2-1-2, $34,720, 0-7 at two)
- dam has six runners, three winners, three juvenile runners, one juvenile winner
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed Mr. Chris Bar (27-5-3-4, $73,530, 2-5 at two)
- trainer is 0-4 over the past five years with juveniles in first start following trainer switch

11. Partners R Due (Devil His Due – Hazy Prospect, by Fortunate Prospect)
Trainer: Vince White
- Foaled April 28, 2005 in Kentucky
- $18,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- half-sister to stakes-winner (Jamaica)
Formally Gold (37-10-19-3, $30,041, 2-5 at two)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (41-11-12-3, $3,920,405, unraced at two)
- sire is 116-980 (12%) with juvenile runners
- sire is 17-117 (15%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a winner (24-4-4-3, $78,495, 3-10 at two, cost $40,000 as a juvenile)
- dam has five runners, four winners, four juvenile runners, one juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Hyperactive (62-15-11-8, $402,366, 1-5 at two), stakes-placed juvenile sprinter Ira Senz (14-5-1-2, $38,521, 1-2 at two), stakes-winner Starion (80-6-7-4, $139,108, 0-4 at two), juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Little Shocker (39-6-6-6, $179,467, 2-6 at two)
- dam a full sister to juvenile stakes-placed Current Jelly (85-8-11-12, $114,809, 1-8 at two)
- trainer is 0-5 over the past five years with juveniles adding Lasix

12. Ellen’s Lady Tiger (Hold That Tiger – Wonderously, by Awesome Again)
Trainer: William Million
- Foaled March 11, 2005 in Kentucky
- $50,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- first-crop sire was a Group 1 winner on turf at two in France (10-3-1-1, $644,235, 3-5 at two)
- sire is 17-117 (15%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unraced (cost $175,000 as a yearling)
- this is dam’s first runner
- dam a half-sister to Grade 3 juvenile sprint winner Shooter (15-3-1-2, $168,874, 2-3 at two), and Grade 2 sprint winner Forest Music (18-6-1-5, $370,566, 1-4 at two)
- trainer is 1-4 (25%, $4.25 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles dropping into maiden claimers

Analysis: SOUTHERN DEVIL has valuable experience around two turns, and the ascending Beyer pattern is encouraging indeed. The daughter of Devil His Due makes her maiden claiming debut in this spot, and shouldn’t be too far off the early pace.
BIRDGIRL adds Lasix for the second lifetime start, and that’s often a strong angle in maiden races. She exits the slower division of maiden special weights at Arlington on September 7, but the barn is red-hot right now, and she will face slower early fractions in this spot. KAYLA DO raced greenly in her career debut at Arlington, but is bred to run all day, and should appreciate stretching out in distance. She shows stamina-building works in preparation for this race, and the barn does good work with young runners.
SILVER LULLABY didn’t do much on grass in her first two tries, but she deserves another chance dropping into maiden claimers for her polytrack debut. She was forced to rally into trotting-horse fractions at Kentucky Downs last time out, and the pace may be more honest here. ELLENS’ LADY TIGER makes first start for a tag after an even effort against maiden special weights at Turfway. She receives a major rider switch to Bejarano, but must avoid a wide trip from the far outside post. PISH POSH exits a key race won by next-out 80 Beyer earner Tequilas Dayjur. She is by an underrated source of juvenile winners, drops in class, and should receive a nice ground-saving, pace-tracking trip under Leparoux.

Selections:
1. Southern Devil
2. Birdgirl
3. Kayla Do

The play: No play

Race 6
About 7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

1. This Very Day (More Than Ready – Dixie Jewel, by Dixieland Band)
Trainer: Paul McGee
- Foaled February 20, 2005 in Kentucky
- $95,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2005)
- $325,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select August 2006)
- sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner (17-7-4-1, $1,026,229, 5-7 at two)
- sire is 77-492 (16%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a winner (11-2-1-2, $32,590, 0-3 at two)
- dam has three runners, two winners, three juvenile runners, one juvenile winner
- dam a half-sister to French stakes-placed juvenile turfer Wild Jewel (16-2-3-3, $87,081, 1-3 at two), and multiple stakes-winner Swift Appraisal (36-13-3-4, $272,705, 1-2 at two)
- trainer is 6-37 (16%, $1.72 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix
- trainer is 1-5 (20%, $0.88 ROI) with second-time Keeneland Babies adding Lasix

2. Stungbythestorm (Vindication – Instinct, by Thunder Gulch)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen
- Foaled March 27, 2005 in Kentucky
- out yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- $115,000 juvenile (OBS Spring April 2007)
- half-brother to stakes-winner Ballado’s Thunder (15-4-1-3, $211,400, unraced at two)
- first-crop sire was a Grade 1 route winner at two (4-4-0-0, $680,950, all races at two)
- sire is 8-34 (24%, $1.69 ROI) with juvenile debut runners
- dam was a stakes-winner (20-4-8-2, $204,430, 0-1 at two, cost $90,000 as a weanling, and $75,000 as a yearling)
- dam has one runner, one winner, no juvenile runners
- dam a half-sister to Grade 2-placed router Alyten (53-5-11-7, $274,884, unraced at two), and French Group 2 winner Montjoy (40-7-6-9, $668,871, 1-5 at two)
- Thunder Gulch is 2-28 (7%, $1.02 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 123-588 (21%, $2.06 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 20-72 (28%, $2.96 ROI) with debuting Keeneland Babies
- trainer is 31-150 (21%, $1.77 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- worked a quarter-mile in 22.40 prior to the April sale

3. Pershing (Deputy Commander – Naskra Colors, by Star de Naskra)
Trainer: Nicholas Zito
- Foaled January 15, 2005 in Kentucky
- out yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- half-brother to Grade 2 sprint winner Sir Shackleton (20-7-2-3, $1,051,500, unraced at two)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (13-4-3-2, $1,906,640, unraced at two)
- sire is 62-568 (11%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a Grade 1-placed router (28-5-8-7, $411,437, 1-3 at two, cost $60,000 as a yearling)
- dam has four runners, two winners, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to Grade 3-placed juvenile Mollie Creek (15-3-2-4, $97,919, 1-4 at two), and Grade 3-placed Ide Be a Lady (18-4-1-2, $136,645, 1-3 at two)
- trainer is 0-4 over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding blinkers for the first time

4. Go Swiftly (Gone West – Dance Swiftly, by Danzig)
Trainer: Shannon Ritter
- Foaled January 30, 2005 in Kentucky
- withdrawn yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- half-brother to stakes-winner Paiota Falls (5-4-1-0, $177,354, unraced at two)
- full brother to stakes-winner West Coast Swing (3-3-0-0, $80,100, unraced at two)
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner (17-6-4-2, $682,251, 1-4 at two)
- sire is 102-543 (19%) with juvenile runners
- Gone West – Danzig “nick” has produced juvenile Grade 2 route winner Supremo (7-2-2-1, $228,250, 2-6 at two)
- dam was unraced
- dam has four runners, two winners, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Secret ‘n Classy (16-4-5-4, $183,104, unraced at two), Grade 1 route winner Smart Strike (8-6-1-0, $337,376, unraced at two), Grade 2 winner Strike Smartly (15-5-2-4, $470,310, unraced at two), and Grade 1 turf winner Full of Wonder (14-5-2-1, $368,150, unraced at two)
- dam a full sister to Grade 1 route winner Dance Smartly (17-12-2-3, $3,263,835, 3-5 at two)
- trainer is 0-8 over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 0-2 with second-time Keeneland Babies
- Keeneland Clocker noted that he “was not under pressure, in company with Great Shot for the first half-mile” of the October 10 workout

5. Capital Park (Doneraile Court – Electrostat, by Dynaformer)
Trainer: William Fires
- Foaled April 7, 2005 in Kentucky
- $75,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- half-brother to Grade 3-placed juvenile Run Alex Run (8-3-1-3, $130,721, 1-2 at two)
- sire was a Grade 2 route winner (16-6-3-2, $361,410, 2-5 at two)
- sire is 82-581 (14%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a route winner in the mud (15-1-1-2, $14,378, unraced at two)
- dam has six runners, four winners, four juvenile runners, two juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to Grade 1 route winner Weber City Miss (40-17-11-6, $687,109)
- trainer is 6-29 (21%, $3.90 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs
- trainer is 1-5 (20%, $2.92 ROI) with Keeneland Babies returning from 31-60 day layoffs

6. Stone Bird (Grindstone - Bird Cage, by Kris S.)
Trainer: D Wayne Lukas
- Foaled April 27, 2005 in Kentucky
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner (6-3-2-0, $1,224,510, 1-2 at two)
- sire is 52-376 (14%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a sprint winner in the mud (23-1-4-5, $23,581, 0-4 at two)
- dam has five runners, four winners, five juvenile runners, two juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to Grade 2-placed Mountain Bird (18-2-5-5, $147,838, 0-4 at two), multiple Grade 1 winner Bird Town (12-4-6-1, $871,251, 1-4 at two), multiple Grade 1 winner Birdstone (9-5-0-0, $1,575,600, 2-3 at two), and stakes-placed sprinter So Long Birdie (5-2-1-1, $60,020, 1-2 at two)
- trainer is 22-157 (14%, $1.67 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs
- trainer is 6-26 (23%, $6.11 ROI) with Keeneland Babies returning from a 31-60 day layoff

7. Monba (Maria’s Mon – Hamba, by Easy Goer)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Foaled March 16, 2005 in Kentucky
- $200,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select August 2006)
- half-brother to stakes-placed turfer Gijima (9-1-3-1, $59,037, unraced at two)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner at two (7-4-1-1, $507,140, 4-5 at two, won debut)
- sire is 27-238 (11%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 6-38 (16%, $1.96 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was a sprint winner (5-2-2-0, $47,500, 0-1 at two)
- dam has five runners, four winners, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to Grade 2 juvenile route winner Silent Account (37-10-5-2, $480,475, 3-7 at two, won debut), British Group 3 juvenile winner Hadif (34-8-7-4, $403,412, 3-6 at two, won debut), Grade 1 juvenile route winner Secret Hello (22-6-3-6, $784,259, 3-4 at two, won debut), and stakes-winning router By Your Leave (9-4-2-0, $84,185, unraced at two)
- Easy Goer is 4-18 (22%, $1.53 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 98-434 (23%, $1.58 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 11-36 (31%, $1.61 ROI) with debuting Keeneland Babies
- trainer is 21-131 (15%, $0.99 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- September 19 workout matches barn’s juvenile Greystone Warrior (62 Beyer)
- October 13 workout matches barn’s juvenile filly Sayitnpayit (51 Beyer)

8. Tip Top H. A. T. (Storm Boot – Timeless Girl, by Whitesburg)
Trainer: Michael Thompson
- Foaled February 16, 2005 in Kentucky
- full brother to multiple Grade 3 sprint winner Bourbon Belle (40-16-11-5, $1,152,223, 4-8 at two)
- sire was a stakes-placed sprinter (14-4-3-1, $70,510, unraced at two)
- sire is 156-1058 (15%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a route winner (10-2-1-0, $29,050, 0-1 at two)
- dam has five runners, four winners, three juvenile runners, one juvenile winner
- trainer is 0-2 over the past five years with second-time juvenile runners

9. Due Date (El Prado – Hidden Assets, by Mt. Livermore)
Trainer: Steve Margolis
- Foaled April 1, 2005 in Kentucky
- sire was a Group 1 winner on turf at two in Ireland (9-4-1-0, $236,987, 4-6 at two, won debut)
- sire is 25-256 (10%) with juvenile debut runners
- dam was a Grade 3 sprint winner (13-5-3-1, $298,313, 0-1 at two, cost $230,000 as a juvenile)
- dam has two runners, two winners, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to Grade 3 turf winner Smooth Runner (24-7-7-0, $402,963, 0-1 at two), and Japanese stakes-placed Daiwa Ripples (12-3-0-1, $369,068, 2-4 at two)
- Mt. Livermore is 7-71 (10%, $1.93 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 0-46 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-3 with debuting Keeneland Babies
- October 9 workout matches barn’s three-year-old filly Ally (72 Beyer)

10. Foolish Promise (Broken Vow – Maggie’s Pearle, by Bright Launch)
Trainer: Rick Hiles
- Foaled April 1, 2005 in Kentucky
- $75,000 short yearling (Keeneland January 2006)
- $110,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Summer July 2006)
- out yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- withdrawn juvenile (Fasig-Tipton February Select 2007)
- $32,000 juvenile (Keeneland April 2007)
- sire was a Grade 2 route winner (14-9-2-2, $725,296, unraced at two)
- sire is 51-346 (15%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unplaced (4-0-0-0, $690, 0-3 at two, cost $5,700 as a yearling, and $4,000 as a juvenile)
- dam has two runners, no winners, two juvenile runners
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Red Spider (67-15-13-8, $77,465), and Italian Group 3-placed Manduria (13-1-6-0, $61,096, 1-4 at two)
- trainer is 1-11 (9%, $0.33 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- worked one furlong in 10.80, and another furlong in 10.80 prior to the April sale

11. Coosa (Dixie Union – Senita Lane, by Ascot Knight)
Trainer: William Mott
- Foaled March 22, 2005 in Kentucky
- $35,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- $70,000 RNA juvenile (OBS Open March 2007)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner (12-7-3-0, $1,233,190, 4-6 at two, won debut)
- sire is 12-126 (10%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 4-42 (10%, $1.59 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was a stakes-winning sprinter at two (16-2-4-3, $54,732, 2-5 at two)
- dam has four runners, three winners, four juvenile runners, one juvenile winner
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Bartholomew Bandy (69-11-12-6, $342,342, 1-9 at two)
- Ascot Knight is 2-39 (5%, $0.45 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 27-244 (11%, $1.04 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 1-7 (14%, $0.63 ROI) with debuting Keeneland Babies
- trainer is 15-93 (16%, $1.50 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- worked one furlong in 11 flat, and another furlong in 10.40 prior to the March sale
- August 8 workout matches barn’s juvenile Court Vision (finished second in career debut on September 7 at Turfway with 68 Beyer)
- August 15 workout matches barn’s three-year-old Astute (finished fifth in career debut on turf at Kentucky Downs on September 25 with 58 Beyer)
- August 23 workout matches barn’s juvenile filly Birdgirl (finished third in career debut at Arlington on September 7 with 60 Beyer)

12. Cape of Storms (Cape Town – U R Theweakestlink, by Mountain Cat)
Trainer: Donnie Kelly
- Foaled February 23, 2005 in New York
- $13,500 RNA yearling (Fasig-Tipton Open August 2006)
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner (12-5-1-1, $795,817, 3-6 at two)
- sire is 60-327 (18%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unplaced (1-0-0-0, $0, unraced at two, sold for $35,000 as a yearling, and $13,000 as a juvenile, 1-2 in mud/slop)
- this is dam’s only runner
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Mellow Roll (24-7-4-4, $555,775, 5-7 at two)
- trainer is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile runners
- trainer is 0-1 with Keeneland Babies

Analysis: STUNGBYTHESTORM is by a hot first-crop sire out of a stakes-winning mare, and trainer Steve Asmussen is one of the best in the world at having his babies ready to fire first time out. The October 5 workout at Churchill Downs looks quick, and the $115,000 juvenile purchase seems primed for a sharp run.
CAPE OF STORMS was the beaten favorite last time out at Turfway, but he’s put up some good numbers in his short career, and may work out a nice stalking trip while in the clear. He has already faced promising juveniles Rated Fiesty, Ready’s Image, Pyro, and Big Truck, and those experiences should serve him well in this spot. THIS VERY DAY took some money for his career debut, and he finished evenly for third. He picks up Lasix for his second start, but must deal with the sometimes-intimidating inside post.
STONE BIRD was up against a speed bias in his career debut, then passed a tired runner in a very fast maiden heat at Belmont. This well-bred colt is capable of improvement. DUE DATE is well-bred, but trainer Steve Margolis doesn’t have a strong record with his debut performers. MONBA cost $200,000 at auction, and goes out for the always-dangerous Todd Pletcher barn.

Selections:
1. Stungbythestorm
2. Cape of Storms
3. This Very Day

The play: Stungbythestorm to win at 3-1 odds or more