10/15/2008 12:00AM

Keeneland Babies for 10/16

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully add to the profits from "Spa Babies."

Wednesday's results:
Race 1: Saint Ali finished eighth
Race 7: Kopitar finished first
Race 8: Saxxy Rose Lee scratched; second-pick Loveyou Everybody finished second

Detailed analysis will return later in the week.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Race 2
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Claiming ($25,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $24,000

Analysis:
An unappetizing race for claimers features BOOT CUT, a Storm Boot gelding taking a suspicious drop in class following a 'n1x' optional claiming win over the Kentucky Downs sod. He's already earned blacktype status with his second-place finish in the B L's Sweep Stakes at Calder earlier this year so why the drop? Well, most of these horses have question marks, and if Boot Cut repeats his most recent Beyer Speed Figure (72), he should be very tough to handle in this spot.
SABINO was no match for Boot Cut on grass, but perhaps the son of first-crop sire Stroll will appreciate switching to synthetics. The drop looks deserved for this one, and he should be a forward factor for the always dangerous team of John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher.
PAIUTE felt handsome in blinkers as evidenced by his maiden special weight win over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs. Tom Amoss is overdue for a winner, and this colt seems very nicely placed at this level.
PERFECT VACATION showed a good deal of professionalism in beating weaker $14,000 maiden claimers at Ellis Park when splitting rivals for the score. He's certainly capable of improvement, but must deal with the testing inside post position. JIMMIES needed a big drop to $7,500 maiden claimers at Turfway to register his first victory, but he did improve with the addition of Lasix and switch to polytrack. He needs a Beyer boost as he faces tougher foes here. UNETHICAL steps up after an all-out win against $10,000 maiden claimers. He's slowly figuring the game out, but may be in a bit steep. DO DROP IN ended up in the winner's circle following his first start on synthetics, and the half-brother to multiple Grade 3 route winner Radical Riley should be rallying in the lane. CODEOFTHEBAYOU was claimed by low-profile barn after scoring for $7,500 at Turfway. MR. ALDO, a half-brother to Grade 2-placed juvenile sprinter Solar Fire, went gate-to-wire when dropped in for a tag at Presque Isle, but may face more pace pressure here.

Selections:
1. Boot Cut
2. Sabino
3. Paiute

The Play:
Boot Cut - Sabino Exacta;
Boot Cut - Paiute Exacta

***

Race 6
1 Mile (Turf)
Allowance (N1X)
2-year-olds
Purse $52,000

Analysis:
TAMBORIM hopped at the start of his polytrack allowance race 12 days ago, and then was hung out 3-4 wide going into the turn. He now switches to turf for grass guru Bill Mott, and the dam was a first-turf winner from the family of grass champion Sunshine Forever. Tamborim takes the worst of it from a post position perspective, but adds blinkers, and has enough tactical speed to find a decent forward spot going into the first turn without losing too much ground.
EXTREME WARRIOR is kin to two blacktype earners including stakes-winner Bronze Autumn (159K in earnings), and she took to turf beautifully in her maiden win at Kentucky Downs. She seems like a new horse with blinkers, and can move forward despite the rise in class.
DEPOSER raced wide when an even fourth behind stablemate Square Eddie in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity over polytrack. He adds Lasix, and should receive a solid pace to attack if he decides to rate kindly for Jesus Castanon. In Europe, Deposer had an annoying tendency to pull hard coming out of the gate.
TAR BEACH's second dam is Christiecat, a Grade 1 turf winnner, and those bloodlines should help him in his move to the grass course. He showed some moxie by bulling through a hole to win his maiden at Saratoga, then may have been in a bit steep in the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile over polytrack. ROCKIN' JOE has done little wrong in his short career, and is bred to be a nice one on the grass. By Breeders' Cup Turf hero Johar, Rockin' Joe is a half-brother to juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Five Star Holding, and Grade 3 winner Sindy With an S. Rockin' Joe came from well off the pace to win his maiden at Kentucky Downs, but lugged in during the final stages. He'll need to be a bit more professional if he is to repeat. JUST LIKE BISCUIT drops out of the Bourbon Stakes 11 days ago, and he was picking up some tired horses in the lane that day. He should get a strong pace to attack, and has been keeping strong company. Demand value. GALLATIN FOREST is out of a full sister to Grade 2 turf winner Mr. Bluebird, and he rallied nicely going short at Presque Isle. The two sprints to a route move is a powerful one with young horses, and this colt can show stretchout speed. COOL C NOTE may have been too close to the pace last time out over Arlington's polytrack. Don't be surprised if he reverts to the stalking tactics that produced his maiden win on grass two back. DA BEAR FACTS is out of a dam that enjoyed the turf, but the son of first-crop sire Congraree needs Beyer improvement to take this. HIGH SPIRIT is a half to the multiple stakes-winning turf performer Swingit, but gets a big test stepping up from maiden $30,000 claimers at Turfway.

Selections:
1. Tamborim
2. Extreme Warrior
3. Deposer

The Play:
Tamborim to Win and Place at 5-1 or greater

***

Race 7
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
Lots of excellent pedigrees in what should be a fun maiden special weight. UNO PESO is by a hot debut sire (Macho Again is 10-48, 28% winners, $4,10 ROI with debut runners in 2008), and the dam placed in the Grade 1 Spinaway as a two-year-old. The gray filly has really picked up the pace of her workouts since beginning her training over the Keeneland surface, and the trainer/jockey combination of Eddie Kenneally and Corey Lanerie are already responsible for a debut winner in 2008.
RCUNADRY boasts a beautiful pedigree as a daughter of A.P. Indy. The dam has already thrown such stalwarts as Grade 3 winner Cuando Puede, multiple stakes-winner Cuando (329K in earnings), Grade 3-placed Cuando Es, and multiple Grade 1 turf winner Honey Ryder. Trainer David Carroll is an underrated source of debut winners.
FORWARD SAIL is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning turf runner Rapid Proof (506K), and stakes-placed Second Offense (215K). Those turf bloodlines may work to her advantage as she debuts over polytrack.
WORDEDGEWISE is out of a half-sister to Grade 3 turf winner Polonius, but the first-crop sire has struggled with debut runners (1-27), and there are no published workouts in the last 24 days. ZANILLA originally sold for $55,000 as a yearling, but went for $150,000 earlier this year. The half-sister to stakes-winning sprinter Sparkling Sabia (282K) showed good speed in her debut, and can be a forward factor once again. WAR KILL is out of a dam that was Grade 3-placed on grass. By Breeders' Cup Mile winner War Chant, she may want a bit more ground to work with. ONE FOR JIM, a $240,000 yearling RNA, is by the good sire Distorted Humor, and the second dam was the fleet, multiple Grade 1 winner Jersey Girl. The recent works look much improved, and Steve Asmussen excels with first-time starters. AWESOME FLEET, a $1,400,000 yearling purchase, is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Afleet Alex, and stakes-winner Unforgettable Max. This barn does good work with firsters, and they sent out an expensive baby to finish second here on Wednesday. PERFECT FOR YOU's second dam is Grade 2 winner Dream Scheme, and she hails from the family of Grade 1 winner Clear Mandate. Rusty Arnold sent out a longshot debut winner here on Wednesday. OUR DAHLIA shows some quick works, and is from the female family as Grade 1 turf winners Dahar, Rivlia, Delegant, and Dahlia's Dreamer. The inside post may cause her problems, though. MILLION SELLER, a $500,000 yearling RNA, boasts a wonderful pedigree. She's by A.P. Indy out of a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Sky Beauty. NOLIN LAKE is out of a multiple stakes-winning dam (268K), but Friends Lake hasn't done well with debut runners from his first crop (1-27).

Selections:
1. Uno Peso
2. Rcuandry
3. Forward Sail

The Play:
Uno Peso to Win and Place at 4-1 or more

***

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):
24-6-11 (+ $35.00)