10/14/2009 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/16

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet.  Hopefully, we'll end up with a tidy profit.

Thursday's results:
Race 1:  Southern Causeway finished sixth
Race 6:  Coral Canyon finished fourth
Race 8:  Smart Seattle finished second

Friday, October 16, 2009

Race 3
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Allowance (N1X)
2-year-olds
Purse $52,000

Analysis:
UPPERLINE is a filly tackling males, but the girls are often just as precocious as the boys, and Upperline has done little wrong in two polytrack appearances.  She beat a pair of next-out winners despite breaking slowly in her career debut on July 15, and then came right back to finish second in stakes competition behind She Be Wild, a filly that returned to win the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Lassie with an 85 Beyer before finishing second as the favorite in the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland with an 88.  Perhaps she'll break better without blinkers, and she seems to have found a nice spot for her two-turn debut.
CONGAR looked good breaking his maiden going five furlongs at Presque Isle Downs as he was hounded every step of the way on the lead before gamely re-rallying along the inside to grab the win.  We can safely throw out his last two races as he didn't seem to handle the turf on August 15, and was no match for next-out Dixiana Breeders' Futurity (Grade 1) winner Noble's Promise in the Fitz Dixon Jr. Memorial Juvenile at Presque Isle Downs.  Expect better speed from Congar as he drops in class.  Congar "went well within himself," according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for the October 9 workout.
LOOKS PURRRFECT will make his first start around two-turns, but he handled a one-turn mile nicely over Arlington's polytrack for the dangerous Steve Asmussen barn.  He beat a pair of next-out winners in that September 6 heat, and three other horses returned from that race to finish second. 
VAMOS A VER got the job done in his first start over a synthetic surface, but he was lugging in during the stretch drive, and the Beyer Speed Figure came back quite low.  He's proven around two turns, but don't think he beat much in Pennsylvania, and these should be tougher. 
HERECOMESBERT received a perfect ride en route to winning his maiden around one-turn at Arlington Park, and he then failed to fire in a slow running of the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity.  It's Asmussen, and he should get some pace to run at late. According to the Keeneland Clocker Report for October 8, Here Comes Bert was engaged in a "competitive work with P L Henry, both were in hand and hard to separate at the finish."  P L Henry ran fifth in a maiden special weight at Keeneland on October 14 with a 55 Beyer.  SUCCESSFUL SCORE was no match for a pair of highly-regarded colts in the Grade 2 Futurity at Belmont, but he has some questions to answer this afternoon.  He has yet to race beyond seven furlongs, has yet to run around two turns, and has yet to race on a synthetic surface.  He's capable, but may be an underlay as the morning line favorite.  VIVID COLORS, like the top pick, is another filly tackling males, but she has yet to race beyond six furlongs, and is another that has no experience racing over synthetics.  She looks like a strong pace presence.  EDDIE SET GO set a pressured, fast pace in the $200,000 Cradle Stakes over dirt at River Downs, and wasn't disgraced despite faltering in the lane.  The barn removes the blinkers, but the only lifetime win came at 4 1/2 furlongs at Prairie Meadows.

Selections:
1.  Upperline  2.  Congar  3.  Looks Purrrfect

The Play: 
Upperline to Win and Place at 4-1 odds or greater

***

Race 6
6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

1.  OCTAVO (Forestry - Juke, by Mr. Prospector)
TRAINER:  Frederick Seitz
JOCKEY:  Robby Albarado
DATE FOALED:   February 15, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Kentucky
AUCTION:   $80,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland, September 2008); $150,000 juvenile (Keeneland, April 2009)
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  HAKA (half-sister, Grade 1-placed, 6-1-3-2, $124,150, 1-3 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 sprint winner (11-7-1-2, $591,225, unraced at two, 4-7 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   90-483 (19%) with juvenile runners
NICKING INFORMATION:  DEVEREUX (multiple stakes-winning sprinter, 16-4-2-3, $219,695, 1-4 at two, 4-15 in main track sprints)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Stakes-placed sprinter (11-4-1-2, $151,879, 1-1 at two, 4-11 in main track sprints)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  3 runners, 2 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 2 main track sprint runners, 0 main track sprint winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  AMERICAN CHANCE (half-brother, multiple Grade 2 winner, 37-10-8-4, $847,977, 3-5 at two, 8-19 in main track sprints); OPHIDIAN (half-sister, stakes-winning sprinter, 6-4-1-0, $97,128, unraced at two, 4-6 in main track sprints)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-1 over the past five years with juvenile runners going dirt to synthetic off 31-60 day layoff in sprints
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  Worked 2 furlongs in 20.4 prior to the April auction

2.  CELERITAS PLUS (Value Plus - Private Funds, by Private Terms)
TRAINER:  Kenneth McPeek
JOCKEY:  Kent Desormeaux
DATE FOALED:   February 2, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Kentucky
AUCTION:   $110,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Summer, July 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Stakes-winning sprinter (15-3-4-1, $414,595, 1-4 at two, won debut, 3-8 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   4-27 (15%, $3.24 ROI) with juvenile debut runners in 2009 (first crop)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Route winner (25-2-2-4, $18,042, 0-3 at two, 0-11 in main track sprints, cost $26,000 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  3 runners, 2 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 3 main track sprint runners, 0 main track sprint winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  DEADLINE (half-brother, stakes-winning sprinter, 91-13-14-15, $247,673, 1-3 at two, 13-77 in main track sprints); CHEIRON (half-brother, multiple stakes-winner, 31-6-8-3, $636,487, 0-4 at two, 1-7 in main track sprints); FORTUNATE EVENT (half-sister, multiple stakes-placed, 34-3-10-5, $321,516, 0-5 at two, 0-6 in main track sprints)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  3-40 (8%, $2.27 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (1 juvenile debut winner)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  5-37 (14%, $2.21 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic sprint maiden special weight (3-27, 11%, $2.47 ROI at Keeneland); 11-69 (16%) with all debut runners in 2009 (6 juvenile debut winners, 1 at this meet with Kent Desormeaux aboard, 2 other older runners with Desormeaux, 10 winners with Lasix)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  July 24 workout matches barn's five-year-old mare COWGIRLS DON'T CRY (finished twelfth in Kentucky Cup Ladies Turf Stakes at Kentucky Downs on September 19 with 17 Beyer); July 31 workout matches barn's juvenile SOUTHERN CAUSEWAY (finished seventh in career debut on turf in maiden special weight at Ellis Park on August 29 with 50 Beyer, 63 Beyer on synthetics); August 14 workout matches barn's juvenile FIST OF RAGE (finished first in career debut in maiden special weight over Keeneland's polytrack on October 14 with 68 Beyer); August 28 workout matches barn's juvenile POSITIVE SPLIT (finished second in career debut on turf in maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs on September 21 with 63 Beyer)

3.  ENCHANTED CIRCLE (GB) (A.P. Indy - Magic Mission, by Machiavellian)
TRAINER:  Eoin Harty
JOCKEY:  Julien Leparoux
DATE FOALED:   March 29, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Great Britain
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 route winner (11-8-0-1, $2,979,815, 3-4 at two, 1-2 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   40-340 (12%) with juvenile debut runners; 7-43 (16%, $2.79 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (one older winner out of a Machiavellian mare, 1 juvenile winner on synthetics)
NICKING INFORMATION:  FLASHING (Grade 1 sprint winner, 8-5-0-2, $452,560, 1-1 at two, won debut, 3-4 in main track sprints); JILBAB (Grade 1 route winner, 9-3-2-2, $347,880, 1-4 at two, 0-2 in main track sprints)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Grade 3 winner on turf (24-4-6-5, $398,111, 0-4 at two, unraced in main track sprints)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  1 runner, 1 winner, 1 juvenile runner, 0 juvenile winners, 0 main track sprint runners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  Third dam is CAPO DI MONTE (Grade 3 turf winner)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  1-7 (14%, $2.03 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (older winner by A.P. Indy)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  2-32 (6%) with juvenile debut runners in synthetic sprint maiden special weights (0-6 at Keeneland); 1-24 (4%) with all debut runners in 2009 (older winner on synthetics with Lasix and blinkers)

4.  SWASHBUCKLER (Orientate - Deaconess Bonnie, by Pulpit)
TRAINER:  D. Wayne Lukas
JOCKEY:  Christopher Emigh
DATE FOALED:   February 3, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $165,000 weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); $27,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008); $100,000 juvenile (OBS Select, February 2009)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 sprint winner (19-10-3-0, $1,716,950, 0-2 at two, 8-11 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   63-414 (15%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD:   Unraced
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  This is first runner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:   DIABOLICAL (half-brother, Grade 2 sprint winner, 32-9-8-5, $1,467,401, 1-5 at two, 5-15 in main track sprints)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  1-2 (50%, $4.40 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile runners going dirt to synthetic off 31-60 day layoffs while adding blinkers in sprints (1-1, 100%, $8.80 ROI at Keeneland)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  Worked 2 furlongs in 20.4 prior to the February sale; September 22 workout matches barn's three-year-old filly STONE LEGACY (73 Beyer top on synthetics, 82 on dirt); October 10 workout matches barn's juvenile NORTHERN GIANT (49 Beyer top on dirt)

5.  BRENTSVILLE ROAD (New Trieste - Jane April, by Distant Ryder)
TRAINER:  Matt Frazier
JOCKEY:  James Graham
DATE FOALED:   February 25, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Louisiana
AUCTION:   $2,000 RNA yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select, October 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Unplaced (1-0-0-0, $1,500, unraced at two, 0-1 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   0-15 with juvenile debut runners (0 debut winners in 2009)
DAM RACE RECORD:  Stakes-placed (14-3-2-2, $33,182, 2-9 at two, 3-11 in main track sprints)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  1 runner, 1 winner, 0 juvenile runners, 1 main track sprint winner
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  0 winners as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic sprint maiden special weight; 0-2 with all debut runners in 2009

6.  THOMAS J (Purge - Chocolate Mauk, by Cozzene)
TRAINER:  Michael Tomlinson
JOCKEY:  Corey Lanerie
DATE FOALED:   March 30, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Kentucky
AUCTION:   $105,000 RNA short yearling (Keeneland, January 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 route winner (15-6-1-2, $905,434, 1-1 at two, 2-2 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   8-77 (10%) with juvenile runners (first crop)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Unplaced (1-0-0-0, $300, unraced at two, unraced in main track sprints)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD: 2 runners, 1 winner, 2 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winners, 2 main track sprint runners, 0 main track sprint winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  WOODMAN'S DANCER (half-sister, Grade 2-placed, 19-5-6-5, $298,486, unraced at two, 5-14 in main track sprints); SEATTLE PATTERN (half-brother, stakes-winning router, 18-5-3-5, $206,993, unraced at two, 0-2 in main track sprints)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-1 over the past five years with juvenile runners going dirt to synthetic off 61-180 day layoff in maiden sprints
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  October 11 workout matches barn's four-year-old filly ARCHMANI (66 Beyer on synthetics, 69 on dirt)

7.  PAPA JIGGS (Yes It's True - Impolite, by Two Punch)
TRAINER:  Ronald Kahles
JOCKEY:  John McKee
DATE FOALED:   February 22, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Kentucky
AUCTION:   $85,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008); Withdrawn juvenile (OBS Open, March 2009); $140,000 juvenile (OBS Open, June 2009)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 sprint winner (22-11-2-3, $1,080,700, 5-9 at two, 11-18 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   132-879 (15%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD:   Multiple stakes-winner (16-5-1-2, $174,860, 1-2 at two, 1-3 in main track sprints, cost $68,000 as yearling, $170,000 as juvenile)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD: 3 runners, 1 winner, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 3 main track sprint runners, 1 main track sprint winner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  GOOD CONDUCT (full sister, stakes-placed sprinter at two, 5-1-2-1, $61,740, 1-5 at two, 1-5 in main track sprints)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-6 over the past five years with juvenile runners in synthetic sprint maiden special weights (0-1 at Keeneland)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  Worked 2 furlongs in 21.0 prior to the June auction

8.  J P SLAMMER (Grand Slam - La Gomera, by Hamas)
TRAINER:  David Carroll
JOCKEY:  Miguel Mena
DATE FOALED:   April 19, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Kentucky
AUCTION:   $50,000 weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); $115,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 winner at two (15-4-5-2, $971,292, 3-5 at two, won debut, 1-4 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   40-313 (13%) with juvenile debut runners; 3-57 (5%, $0.34 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (1 juvenile winner on synthetics)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Winner on turf in France (5-1-2-2, $25,283, unraced at two, unraced in main track sprints)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD: 1 runner, 1 winner, 1 juvenile winner, 1 main track sprint winner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  CAFFE LATTE (half-sister, Grade 1 winner on turf, 15-5-3-0, $676,885, unraced at two, unraced in main track sprints); AUTONOMY (half-brother, stakes-winner on turf, 49-10-6-9, $200,427, 2-3 at two, won debut, 3-4 in main track sprints)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  0 winners as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-18 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic sprint maiden special weights (0-10 at Keeneland); 1-12 (8%, $1.18 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (older winner with Lasix)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  August 3, October 5 workouts match barn's juvenile filly BABY SISTER (finished second in career debut over Turfway's polytrack surface in maiden special weight on September 11 with 52 Beyer); August 10, September 28 workouts match barn's juvenile DRINK WITH PRIDE (finished fourth in career debut over Arlington's polytrack in maiden special weight on September 13 with 49 Beyer); August 24 workout matches barn's juvenile CORNELL (finished first in $30,000 maiden claimer over Turfway's polytrack on September 20 with 49 Beyer); August 24 workout matches barn's three-year-old filly AMAZON LILY (finished seventh in 'n1x' allowance over Turfway's polytrack on September 20 with 50 Beyer); August 24 workout matches barn's juvenile filly QUICK BREEZE (finished first in maiden special weight over Arlington's polytrack on September 11 with 61 Beyer)

9.  MONARCHOS BOY (Monarchos - Susan's Surprise, by Pleasant Tap)
TRAINER:  William Fires
JOCKEY:  Jon Court
DATE FOALED:   March 19, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Kentucky
AUCTION:   $16,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  SURPRISED HUMOR (half-sister, Grade 3-placed sprinter, 9-3-0-1, $127,788, 0-1 at two, 0-3 in main track sprints)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 route winner (7-5-1-0, $480,969, 1-1 at two, 2-3 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   13-93 (14%) with juvenile debut runners; 6-24 (25%, $4.45 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (2 juvenile debut winners, 1 on synthetics)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Unraced (cost $26,000 as weanling, $24,000 as weanling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  3 runners, 2 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winners, 3 main track sprint runners, 1 main track sprint winner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  EXCLUSIVE STORY (half-sister, stakes-winner on turf at two, 9-2-0-1, $50,481, 2-5 at two, 0-2 in main track sprints); COLONIAL SAGA (three-quarter sister, stakes-winning router, 54-7-6-7, $133,630, unraced at two, 0-3 in main track sprints); PLEASANT TANGO (three-quarter brother, stakes-winning router, 24-4-2-4, $281,879, unraced at two, 0-5 in main track sprints)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  6-31 (19%, $2.31 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (all older runners)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-5 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic sprint maiden special weights (0-1 at Keeneland); 2-11 (19%, $5.33 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (both juvenile debut winners with Lasix on and Jon Court aboard, 1 for this onwer)

10.  MOE MAN (Yes It's True - Maya, by Capote)
TRAINER:  Ian Wilkes
JOCKEY:  Calvin Borel
DATE FOALED:   May 16, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Kentucky
AUCTION:   $80,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  AL KHALI (half-brother, Grade 3 winner, 11-4-2-1, $158,724, 2-3 at two in Peru, unraced in main track sprints)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 route winner at two (9-2-1-0, $822,484, 2-3 at two, unraced in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   38-259 (15%) with juvenile debut runners; 8-59 (14%, $0.98 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (4 juvenile debut winners, 1 older winner on synthetic)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Route winner (12-2-4-1, $76,475, 0-1 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  1 runner, 1 winner, 1 juvenile winner, 0 main track sprint runners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  Third dam is CHIC SHIRINE (Grade 1 route winner, 16-3-2-3, $237,944, 1-3 at two, 1-7 in main track sprints)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  10-90 (11%, $1.19 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (4 juvenile debut winners, 1 on synthetics, 2 other older winners on synthetics)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-25 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic sprint maiden special weights (0-11 at Keeneland); 3-28 (11%, $3.41 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older winner on synthetics, 1 winner with Lasix and front wraps)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  September 22 workout matches barn's three-year-old SANDECKER (65 Beyer top on synthetic)

11.   BROTHER STUART (Arch - Stewper, by Crafty Prospector)
TRAINER:  Dallas Stewart
JOCKEY:  Jamie Theriot
DATE FOALED:   April 8, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $45,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:  Grade 1 route winner (7-5-1-0, $480,969, 1-1 at two, 2-3 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:    42-328 (13%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD:  Sprint winner at two (3-1-0-0, $16,800, 1-3 at two, 1-3 in main track sprints)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  This is first starter
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  INCOGNITO (half-brother, stakes-winner, 38-4-7-5, $154,255, 2-9 at two, 2-10 in main track sprints); BIG FOOT KID (half-brother, multiple stakes-winner at two, 17-5-3-1, $211,937, 5-6 at two, 3-12 in main track sprints); MC HENRY CO. KID (half-brother, multiple stakes-placed at two, 55-5-11-10, $162,958, 1-8 at two, 0-5 in main track sprints)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  2-9 (22%, $2.46 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles going dirt to synthetic in maiden special weight sprint (1-4, 25%, $1.75 ROI at Keeneland)

12.  GROUNDWORK (Action This Day - Miss Jealous Sword, by Crusader Sword)
TRAINER:  Paul McGee
JOCKEY:  Jesus Castanon
DATE FOALED:   April 2, 2007
STATE FOALED:  Kentucky
AUCTION:   Withdrawn yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 route winner at two (9-2-1-0, $822,484, 2-3 at two, unraced in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   1-48 (2%) with juvenile debut runners; 1-32 (3%, $0.31 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (older winner)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Winner (3-3-0-0, $91,200, unraced at two, 1-1 in main track sprints, cost $150,000 as juvenile)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD: 1 runner, 1 winner, 1 juvenile debut winner, 1 main track sprint winner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  MISS JEALSKI (half-sister, multiple stakes-winner, 41-9-8-3, $651,795, 3-6 at two, won debut, 2-6 in main track sprints); JEALOUS CRUSADER (full brother, Grade 3-placed sprinter, 26-7-7-2, $183,597, 1-1 at two, 6-21 in main track sprints); APPEALING SKIER (half-brother, multiple Grade 2 winner, 26-8-7-3, $579,610, 3-4 at two, won debut, 6-17 in main track sprints); TRIPPI (half-brother, Grade 1 sprint winner, 14-7-1-2, $666,220, unraced at two, 6-11 in main track sprints); JEALOUS FORUM (half-sister, multiple stakes-winner, 12-4-2-1, $306,736, 2-6 at two, won debut, 2-4 in main track sprints)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  1-19 (5%, $2.47 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (juvenile debut winner)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-22 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in synthetic sprint maiden special weights (0-1 at Keeneland); 0-8 with all debut runners in 2009
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  September 22 workout matches barn's three-year-old JUJU (finished second in $5,000 'n2L' claimer over Turfway's polytrack on September 30 with 54 Beyer)

Analysis:
SWASHBUCKLER ran into a talented juvenile named Aspire in his career debut at Saratoga, and then broke poorly in his first start with Lasix.  Mr. Lukas adds the blinkers for his first start over a synthetic surface, and perhaps the new eyewear will help him get out of the gate in quicker order. 
CELERITAS PLUS goes out for trainer/jockey combination that sent out "Keeneland Baby" selection Fist of Rage to a debut win on Wednesday's card.  The August 14 bullet workout matches up with Fist of Rage.
THOMAS J may fall into a nice stalking trip just off the speeds.  He was bet to favoritism last time out at Ellis Park, but just couldn't get to Don't Put It Back, a colt that returned to win a 'n2L' allowance at Ellis with a 66 Beyer.  Another horse from that race came back to win, and two others were next-out runner-ups. 
MOE MAN is by a precocious sire, and the workouts look okay.  Trainer Ian Wilkes usually does better second-out than with debut runners, however. 
GROUNDWORK'S sire and trainer are slumping with debut runners, but the female family is chock-full of precocious types.  Groundwork "went well from the gate, easily better than Church Camp," according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for October 10.  Church Camp is an unraced juvenile filly.  J P SLAMMER may do best on grass at longer distances down the road.  PAPA JIGGS blew a clear early lead last time out at Turfway Park, but was going way too fast for the first half mile.  He looms a pace factor once again.  OCTAVO looks like the horse to beat based on his quick runs over dirt at Ellis Park.  He may have to deal with Papa Jiggs early, however, and has no racing experience over a synthetic surface.  Octavo "is holding form well," according to the Keeneland Clocker report for October 3.  ENCHANTED CIRCLE boasts a strong pedigree, but the barn is struggling with debut runners, and the A. P. Indy colt may want more distance.  MONARCHOS BOY and BRENTSVILLE ROAD both may need a start.

Selections:
1.  Swashbuckler  2.  Celeritas Plus  3.  Thomas J

The Play:
Swashbuckler to Win and Place at 9-2 odds or greater


Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):  14-2-4 (+ $28.80)