10/13/2008 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/15

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully add to the profits from "Spa Babies."

Sunday's result:
Race 6: Afleet Deceit finished eighth

Detailed analysis will return later in the week.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Race 1
6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($40,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $21,000

Analysis: Yet another tough, tough maiden race at this meet. SAINT ALI was a vet scratch on August 31, and the worktab is spotty to say the least. Still, the $3,000 yearling purchase breezed fairly quickly out of the gate here five days ago, and should be a big price for a barn that scored with a pair of older winners over Turfway's polytrack in 2008. Simply a longshot stab.
SKINNY LEGS N ALL goes out for a trainer/jockey combination that already has three winners at this meet (two in maiden claimers), and the dam ($125K yearling) is a half-sister to Grade 3 sprint winner True Direction. Skinny Legs N All's sire, El Corredor, is only 2-52 with debut runners in 2008, however.
CREPE has plenty of experience, and she faced a promising young turf filly in Abbott Hall two starts back. Last time out, she finished evenly on grass against $15,000 maiden claimers at Kentucky Downs, and should be legged up for this elongated sprint.
RECKLESS BETTY takes the biggest drop in the game - from maiden special weight to maiden claimers - and this trainer/jockey combination used that move successfully earlier at the meet with Runway West at 13-1 odds. Reckless Betty, a $120,000 yearling RNA, hasn't shown much speed to date, but the drop should really move her forward. She's probably the horse to beat. CLIQUE, a $27,000 yearling RNA, also drops out of special weights. Trainer Tom Amoss is clicking at almost 30% for the year, and his charge shows an improved half-mile workout on October 11. Expect this daughter of Cape Town to be a forward factor early. BLACK MYSTIC hit the board against special weights at Keeneland, and she's kin to several good winners including the multiple stakes-winner Tammi's Pal (110,206 in earnings). She doesn't show a published workout in over a month, however, and the inside post can be an intimidating place for a youngster at this distance. CLASSIC GAIT, a $10,000 weanling RNA, and $27,000 yearling RNA, is by the underrated Mutakddim (19% first-out juveniles) out of a stakes-placed mare (100K in earnings). She's a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Johnny Utah, and needn't have much quality to win this race. BIZZEE MIZZEE also tries maiden claimers for the first time. She faced a pair of runaway winners at Delaware, and should appreciate the class relief. WINTERTIME cost $75,000 as a yearling, but debuts for only $40,000 today. She's a half to several blacktype earners including Grade 3-placed router Consort Music. LUCYS SULTRY MOVES is a full sister to multiple stakes-placed juvenile Golem, and shows a bullet work at Churchill Downs. AIN'T BEHAVIN' doesn't show a published work in over two weeks, but goes out for excellent connections, and the second dam was stakes-placed. She sold for $52,000 as a weanling, but was a $37,000 RNA the following year, and a $42,000 RNA in 2008. SUZY HOO HOO is a half-sister to stakes-placed Kenta Kun (earned blacktype at age seven). She is by first-crop sire Governor Hickel, a multiple graded stakes-placed sprinter, and may need a race or two.

Selections:
1. Saint Ali
2. Skinny Legs N All
3. Crepe

The Play:
Saint Ali to Win and Place at 8-1 or more

***

Race 7
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
KOPITAR is out of an unraced half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner Frankly Perfect, and those grass and stamina bloodlines may serve him well in this seven furlong heat over the polytrack. Rusty Arnold has struggled with debut runners in 2008 (1-26), but it's good to see Robby Albarado accept the mount, and the broodmare sire, Quest for Fame, is having a wonderful year as the damsire of first-time starters (4-15, 27%, $6.56 ROI). Kopitar shows a couple of quick gate works over this surface, and may have a bit of early speed.
TINTIM POR TINTIM is a half-brother to top Hong Kong turfer Good Ba Ba (won Group 1 Hong Kong Mile, Citi Stewards' Cup, and Queen's Silver Jubilee Cup). Bill Mott is only 1-68 with debut runners in 2008, however, and the outside post may force this homebred a bit wide down the backstretch.
FLORENTINO sold for over a million dollars to Sheikh Mohammed as a weanling in Japan, but raced very greenly in his debut at Saratoga, then bombed in his second start at Belmont. The blinkers return, and the switch to polytrack may be just what the doctor ordered.
UNO MAS, a $150,000 yearling purchase, was a $140,000 RNA earlier this year. He showed good speed in both starts at Arlington, and should be a forward factor for the always-dangerous Steve Asmussen barn. BUZZIN AND DREAMIN didn't have an easy trip at Saratoga, and that race produced a couple of next-out winners. He hasn't shown much early speed to date, though, and it must be noted that the $170,000 yearling buy was a $50,000 RNA in March. STARGLEAM failed to parlay an outside closers bias to victory in his most recent start at Turfway Park. The half-sister to turf stakes-winner Forest Shadows may want additional distance. COUNTRY FLAVOR is the first foal from Grade 3 winner Allspice. As a daughter of Empire Maker, she may do better with distance and experience. POINTING HOME chased the promising Munnings two back at the Spa, then lost all chance at the break on August 15. COLD FEET is a half-sister to stakes-winning router Saratoga Blues. Trainer Dallas Stewart does better second-out than with firsters. AU MOON goes out for high-percentage barn, and the second dam is juvenile stakes-winner Princess Tru. INDYGO MOUNTAIN, a $600,000 yearling by the great A.P. Indy, is out of a stakes-winning sprinter, and the barn wins with a high percentage of first-time starters. Demand value.

Selections:
1. Kopitar
2. Tintim Por Tintim
3. Florentino

The Play:
Kopitar to Win and Place at 9-2 odds or greater

***

Race 8
1 Mile (Turf)
Allowance (N2L)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $52,000

Analysis:
SAXXY ROSE LEE outran her 88-1 odds in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies at this mile distance, and has the tactical speed to work out a pace-tracking, ground-saving trip under Tracy Hebert. She has some turf breeding as her sire, Bernstein, was a multiple Group 3 winner at two in Ireland.
LOVEYOU EVERYBODY goes out for the powerful Ken McPeek barn, and she was a very impressive debut winner sprinting over Turfway's polytrack. She made a big wide sweeping move on the turn, and drew off in the stretch despite failing to switch leads. McPeek has amazing stats with first-time turf runners as well as second-time starters, and this daughter of Five Star Day wouldn't be a surprise.
DEFINITIVE WHIM has some grass in her pedigree as she's a granddaughter of the great European sire Sadler's Wells. She rallied from just off the pace to win her maiden at Turfway, and goes two sprints to a route for a solid barn. Saxxy Rose Lee's uncoupled entrymate should show good early speed on the stretchout.
OCULANA is a full sister to Miami Ali, a stakes-placed turf performer that has done very well around a route of ground. The daughter of Century City, a multiple Grade/Group 2 winner on turf, shows some solid works for this, and should appreciate the added distance. She's an intriguing sleeper although she was a vet scratch at Arlington on September 19. DYNA'S GREELEY is a half-sister to a first-turf winner, and her sire, Dynaformer, is known for his grass progeny. Dyna's Greeley was bet hard for her debut on dirt at Louisiana Downs, and did not disappoint with a "ridden out" victory. She shows a pair of stamina-building works for Team Borel, and should factor from just off the pace. WITCH PRINCESS, a half-sister to the quality juvenile performer Tiz Wonderful, took her turf and route debut in gate-to-wire fashion, but she may have to work a lot harder if she is to obtain a similar trip here. BANKER'S CHOICE was all-out to score going this distance over the Turfway polytrack. She may get a nice pace setup from near the rear of the field, but I didn't like how she switched back to her wrong lead in the waning stages of her lone turf start at Saratoga. INNOVATIVE and MAJESTIC FELINE are two of the three grass winners in the field (along with Witch Princess). The former should show speed stretching out off three sprint tries, but is marooned in the far outside stall. Majestic Feline won her lone start on turf, but that Beyer came back a bit light. KEERTANA tries turf for the first time, but her sire, Johar, won the Breeders' Cup Turf, and she shows a pair of sharp bullet workouts in preparation for her first start against winners.

Selections:
1. Saxxy Rose Lee
2. Loveyou Everybody
3. Definitive Whim

The Play:
Saxxy Rose Lee to Win at 7-2 odds or greater

***

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):
21-5-10 (+ $2.00)