10/13/2007 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/14

EmailWelcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully will add to the Keeneland Spring and Spa Baby profits.

Saturday's results:
Race 3: U. S. Cavalry finished first
Race 6: Hidden Leader finished first
Race 8: School Girl finished third

Detailed statistical analysis will return next week.

Sunday, October 11, 2007

Race 4
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

Analysis: NIGHTNIGHTNIGHT bulled her way between horses to press the pace last time out at Saratoga, but wasn't able to pass the pacesetting winner over a speed-favoring track. She finished ahead of three next-out winners that day, and fifth-place finisher Backseat Rhythm recently ran second in the Grade 1 Frizette. Nightnightnight has the early speed to be right there in the early stages, and she owns the best last Beyer Speed Figure to boot. FLUFF gave 1-2 favorite Mim's Eppi a fight last time out at Ellis Park, and that foe came back to finish second in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies. She adds Lasix for this, and looms a dangerous contender in this tough heat.
STAR OVER MALIBU rallied nicely for second in her career debut, and she adds Lasix for her second start (often a potent angle in juvenile maiden contests). She's bred to relish this added distance, and this barn is 6-12 (50%, $5.35 ROI) with second-time starters over the last 18 months. PALACE SECRET suffered from traffic trouble in her career debut on grass at Saratoga, and then lugged in badly over Kentucky Downs sod in her second start. Rusty Arnold has sent out some live runners at this meet, and his charge should be rallying in the lane.
THE MIZZUS ran consistently good races over Arlington's polytrack, and should offer value in this spot. She'll need to work out a track from the inside post.

1. Nightnight
2. Fluff
3. Star Over Malibu

The Play: Nightnightnight to win at 2-1 odds or more

Race 6
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old filly
Purse $50,000

Analysis: SWEETNESS 'N LIGHT professionally rated in behind the leader during the backstretch run of her career debut, kept on nicely in the stretch to just miss behind School Girl (finished third here yesterday in an allowance race), galloped out beautifully, and ended up 15 lengths ahead of a next-out winner. She gets a rider switch to high-percentage jock Bejarano, and has the speed to be right there when the gates open.
COY CAT showed marked improvement in his first start off the short break, and the $200,000 weanling purchase may finally have figured this game out. She'll break from an intimidating inside post, but may work out a nice inside-out trip from midpack. CAPE COD BAY acts like she'll appreciate this added distance, and she didn't seem very comfortable on the Saratoga main track. Perhaps this nicely-bred filly will improve over a synthetic surface.
MISS TRISS boasts an improving Beyer pattern, and Rusty Arnold has sent out a bunch of live juvenile runners in 2007. This filly has some tactical speed, and there is enough stamina on the bottom of the pedigree to indicate she'll handle the slight step up in trip. NEWPORT HARBOUR failed to parlay a perfect stalking trip to victory two back at Monmouth despite having the length of the stretch to reel in the leader. Last time out, she was overbet to even money, and once again came up short. She shows a quick work over polytrack, but may prove a bit of an underlay.

1. Sweetness 'n Light
2. Coy Cat
3. Cape Cod Bay

The Play: No play

Race 7
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Allowance (N2L)
Purse $52,000

Analysis: SARATOGA SEVEN was stacked out six wide every step of the way after breaking from post 12 at Turfway last time, and still grinded out a solid victory. The $340,000 yearling ran into a top juvenile in J Be K at Saratoga, and seems to be improving rapidly for the Lukas barn.
Perhaps MR. FLAMBOYANT didn't appreciate the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs. He didn't show much early speed there after an impressive gate-to-wire score over conventional dirt at Mountaineer Park. He deserves a chance to turn things around at a nice price. P. BASS didn't show much speed at Presque Isle Downs after forcing the pace in three starts at Ellis, but at least she rallied a bit late over the Tapeta footing. She may sit a nice stalking trip from closer to the front in this spot.
VINNY V. may have some distance limitations as he was tiring rapidly going six at Turfway, then dropped out of it after a half-mile at Presque Isle. He must avoid a prolonged pace battle with IMPERIUM. MEAL PENALTY goes out for the always-dangerous Pletcher barn, and the $350,000 juvenile purchase was a professional debut winner over sloppy going at Monmouth. He must deal with the synthetic surface and an outside post for his first start against winners. PULASKI RUNNER takes a comfortable class drop after facing some traffic in the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile. He'll appreciate the fast pace up front, and should be rallying late for a piece at the very least.

1. Saratoga Seven
2. Mr. Flamboyant
3. P. Bass

The play: Saratoga Seven to win at 5-2 odds or more

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager): 21-5-11 (+$4.60)