10/12/2009 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/14

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet.  Hopefully, we'll end up with a tidy profit.

Sunday's results:
Race 7 - Andrea Louise finished twelfth
Race 8 - Asphalt finished ninth

Week 1 Recap:  8-1-2 (+ $19.00)

The horrible handicapping carried over from the final week of "Spa Babies," but Noble's Promise's win at 12-1 in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity has us in the black for the time being.  One win does not a meet make, however, so we have tons of work still to do.


***DETAILED STATISTICAL ANALYSIS WILL RETURN LATER THIS WEEK***

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Race 2
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Claiming ($50,000)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $21,000

Analysis:
OFFLEE SWEET finished ahead of next-out winner Safe (took $30,000 maiden claimer over Kentucky Downs sod with 52 Beyer) when chasing 43-1 longshot victress Fillyocity in most recent start at Hoosier Park.  The lack of synthetic experience is a bit worrisome, but Offlee Sweet should be one of the stronger pace runners in this maiden claimer.  The sire adds stamina to the mix as he won the Grade 1 Suburban at 10 furlongs in 2005.  The "first time maiden claimer" angle is a big one.  Offlee Sweet gets a very tepid nod in a tough race.
SWEET N SOUR NINA looms the one to beat after chasing a favored gate-to-wire winner over a speed-favoring Arlington polytrack.  She didn't break very well from the inside post that day, but saved ground, and professionally ran on for the place.  The dam was a Grade 3 winning sprinter, but she did successfully stretch her speed to nine furlongs.  Her previous synthetic experience is a big plus.  The Keeneland Clocker Report for the October 5 workout noted that Prytania (Tom Proctor-trained multiple winner on grass) started "3-4 lengths behind stablemates Sweet N Sour Nina and Dixie Causeway early in the work, easily moved by these two at the finish."
THEWIFEDOESNTKNOW exits a race that produced a pair of next-out winners, but that was way back in May over the dirt course at Churchill Downs.  The stamina pedigree should help her navigate this distance, but she is stretching out three and one-half furlongs in her first start in almost five months. 
ZORI'S EYE is a half-brother to My Snoookie's Boy, a winner of over 400K that placed in the 2003 Haskell Invitational at nine furlongs.  She takes a big drop in class from maiden special weight company, has experience over polytrack, and will go out for a red-hot barn.  Needless to say, she wouldn't be a surprise.
BRAIN TRUST was likely overmatched against winners when racing evenly in an Ohio-bred stakes race last time out at Thistledown.  She has valuable two-turn experience, and draws a comfortable inside post position.  The dam was stakes-placed at 1 1/16 miles.  SHE BE CLASSY has some angles in her favor despite being forced to break from the far outside post.  She goes two sprints to a route in the third start of the form cycle, owns synthetic experience, and her trainer is having a big year.  She's also a half-sister to Storm Mesa, the winner of the Grade 2 San Clemente Handicap going a mile on turf.  Expect improvement as she drops in for a tag for the first time.  POORTOWN PRINCESS passed some tired rivals in her career debut at Kentucky Downs, and wheels back in sixteen days for barn that had a winner earlier in the meet.  She was beaten by Safe, the horse that finished beind Offlee Sweet at Hoosier.  BETABELLE took some money for her debut at Turfway Park, but really didn't threaten under seven-pound bug rider.  There's a major rider switch to James Graham for this race, and the dam was stakes-placed at one mile.  MISS NEPAL may improve with the addition of Lasix, and she will get the services of top rider John Velazquez.  The dam won at 1 1/4 miles so it's possible that the added distance is just what the doctor ordered.  The Keeneland Clocker Report for the October 7 move noted that Miss Nepal "went well on her own."

Selections: 
1.  Offlee Sweet  2.  Sweet N Sour Nina  3.  Thewifedoesntknow

The Play:
Offlee Sweet to Win at 2-1 odds or greater

***

Race 4
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
COSMIC TRANSIT's workout on September 26 matches up with trainer Ken McPeek's three-year-old Moon Town, a second-time starter that graduated here on October 9 with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure.  By a 15% debut sire that had a pair of juvenile first-out winners at the Keeneland spring meet, Cosmic Transit may be precocious enough to overcome the far outside post.  McPeek has already sent out ten debut winners this season.
RAINCATCHER's dam, Aud, was a multiple Grade 3 winner going nine furlongs on turf, but the sire should impart at least some speed.  Raincatcher worked a furlong in 10.2 prior to selling for $48,000 in June (originally a $45,000 buyback).  The inside post may pose somewhat of a problem, but the turf bloodlines on the bottom may be tailor-made for polytrack, and Raincatcher should offer a nice price.
CHEAPER TO SETTLE is a half-brother to multiple stakes-placed sprinter Ghost Wrestling, and the first-crop sire has already clicked with 6 of 24 debut runners.  Cheaper to Settle has worked quickly at Highpoint Farm and Training Center for his debut.  The colt sold for $40,000 as a short yearling before going for only $10,000 as a yearling.  He was bought back for $17,000 in April after working a furlong in 10.3.
STORMING STORMYE was bet down to favoritism for his career debut on the turf at Arlington Park, and he didn't have an easy trip.  He finished behind a promising winner named Harken Up, and that one returned to run third here in a 'n2L' allowance over the polytrack with a 76 Beyer Speed Figure.  The dam was stakes-placed at 1 1/16 miles, and one must always respect a Steve Asmussen-trained juvenile. 
DOWN WITH DIXIE was "well within himself" according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for October 8.  The winner of his last race, Call Shot, returned to finish second here with an 82 Beyer Speed Figure, but Down With Dixie hasn't shown much in two lifetime starts. HENCEFORTH is out of Mil Kilates, a mare that won a pair of Grade 3 races around two turns.  This barn usually has better numbers second-out than with debut runners, but Henceforth may want a bit more ground.  FISH took money for his debut, but was no match for runaway debut winner Z. I. Zipp.  He can improve after chasing those fast fractions.  SOLIDER FIELD, a $70,000 yearling that resold for the same amount in February after working a quarter-mile in 21 seconds, goes out for barn that usually takes it easy with their young horses. ROMAN SOLIDER finished just ahead of Fish at Turfway Park on September 12, and he gave a "strong effort, galloped out in 1:00" according to the Keeneland Clocker Report for October 10.  Expect some improvement for underrated barn. THEY CALL HIM EL was bought back for $95,000 last year, but found a home after selling for $165,000 in March.  He worked a furlong in 10.1 at the auction, is a half-brother to stakes-placed router Vivacious Suzi, and will debut for high-percentage connections.  SPICER's dam won the Grade 3 Sixty Sails Handicap at nine furlongs with a 99 Beyer Speed Figure.  The homebred son of Ghostzapper may want a bit more ground to work with.  LIVINGTHEGOODLIFE only sold for $1,500 as a yearling, and then was bought back for $14,000 in April after working a furlong in 10.1. 

Selections:
1.  Cosmic Transit  2.  Raincatcher  3.  Cheaper to Settle

The Play: 
Cosmic Transit to Win and Place at 9-2 odds or greater

***

Race 6
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

Analysis:
Here's hoping trainer Ken McPeek has a big day at Keeneland.  FIST OF RAGE, a $55,000 yearling by first-crop sire Consolidator, shows some intriguing workouts leading up to his career debut.  The August 1 drill matches up with McPeek's juvenile Noble's Promise, the winner of last week's Grade 1 Dixiana Breeders' Futurity.  The September 24 mud work matches McPeek's older colt Fitzaslew, a runner with an 88 Beyer top. 
SILVER CRAFT adds Lasix for the second start, and that's a huge angle in maiden races.  Also, his crafty high-percentage trainer confidently steps him out of the maiden claiming ranks for his first crack at the Keeneland polytrack.  Silver Craft finished ahead of two next-out maiden claiming winners in his debut, but has been away since early July. 
GENTLEMAN JOHN, a full brother to Grade 3 winner Deputy G (won the Bashford Manor going six furlongs as a juvenile), has yet to run to his pedigree, but does own big early speed.  He has yet to gain ground from the stretch call to the wire, however, and may face other early types this afternoon.
GOOD LORD took tote action for his debut at Ellis Park, and didn't have a great trip when beaten less than one length.  That race hasn't produced much, however, and Good Lord has been away since mid-August. 
WESTSHORE is a half-brother to Gresham, who placed in the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile going 1 1/16 miles over Turfway Park's polytrack surface as a juvenile.  Westshore wasn't disgraced in his debut at Saratoga, and may work out a nice outside stalking trip under Robby Albarado.  He's certainly not out of this.  P. L. HENRY battled it out with EXCHANGE IN MOTION for a half-mile at Arlington before finding himself in a tight spot.  He figured to have gained a world of experience in that one race.  Exchange in Motion pressed the pace in his debut at Arlington before tiring late.  Those were some solid fractions he contested, but he must avoid another duel with P. L. Henry, Gentleman John, and Westshore.  SPOOKY HOLLOW is out of a dam that was stakes-placed going a route of ground, and he ran a solid second in a decent, albeit slow, debut at Turfway.  He needs a Beyer boost to reach the winner's circle.  FORGOTTEN TALES is a half to the good runners Hot Storm (multiple stakes-winning sprinter with 103 Beyer top), and Unforgotten (route stakes-winner that just ran second in the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Distaff).  The inside post may be a hindrance, the barn is so-so first out, and the workouts don't entice.  GENESIS ONE is a $35,000 yearling that reportedly didn't look as good as older maiden stablemate Vol O when both worked a half in 47.40 out of the gate on October 2.  GAMEBOOK sold for $97,000 as a yearling, and is a half to Dixiewink, a Grade 2-placed sprinter at two.  He's been in training since June, however, and the workouts don't excite. MR. RICOCHET draws outside, and only shows one published workout in the last month.  The dam was a stakes-winning sprinter.

Selections:
1.  Fist of Rage  2.  Silver Craft  3.  Gentleman John

The Play:
Fist of Rage to Win and Place at 5-1 odds or greater