10/12/2007 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/13

EmailWelcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully will add to the Keeneland Spring and Spa Baby profits.

Thursday’s results:
Race 4: Anachini finished first
Race 6: Word Gets Around finished sixth
Race 7: Victory by Blue finished eighth

Saturday, October 13, 2007

Race 3
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Starter Allowance ($50,000)
2-year-olds
Purse $35,000

Analysis: U.S. CAVALRY took advantage of a speed-favoring Turfway surface when breaking his maiden on the front end. He was overmatched at Saratoga against the highly-regarded Maimonides in the faster division of maiden special weights in his career debut, but seems to have found his footing, and should be prominent from a strong attack post.
The beaten favorite in MAUI STORM’s maiden win returned to score in a special weight at Mountaineer...by a whopping 18 3/4 lengths. Maui Storm showed good speed that day, and really kicked it into gear once he changed leads in midstretch. He’ll face more pace pressure in this spot, but seems comfortable on the polytrack. DOUBLE FINESSE showed strong tactical speed to win his debut at Turfway, then never got involved on grass at Kentucky Downs. Some horses just don’t like that turf course, and Double Finesse may sit a nice stalking trip off several speed-types.
SOCKS finished ahead of Double Finesse at Kentucky Downs, and his late-running style should be suited by the expected solid pace up front. He owns a win over the Arlington polytrack.

Selections:
1. U. S. Cavalry
2. Maui Storm
3. Double Finesse

The play: No play

Race 6
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

1. The Rare Commander (Deputy Commander - Rare Rascal, by Rare Performer)
Trainer: George Arnold
- Foaled March 19, 2005 in Kentucky
- half-brother to stakes-placed Mr Bassett (15-3-1-4, $108,935, unraced at two)
- sire was a Group 1 winner on turf in France at two (10-3-1-1, $644,235, 3-5 at two, won debut)
- sire is 9-182 (5%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 2-55 (4%, $0.20 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was a sprint winner (7-2-0-0, $18,598, 0-1 at two, cost $25,000 as a yearling)
- dam has six runners, five winners, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner She’s Good N’ Bad (34-4-5-5, $29,024), multiple stakes-winner Country Hick (95-17-18-12, $186,640), and stakes-placed Jacklyn the Ripper (54-7-11-7, $57,445, unraced at two)
- Rare Performer is 3-15 (20%, $3.65 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 0-6 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- September 15 workout matches barn’s juvenile Clod Buster (finished fifth in 50K maiden claimer at Turfway on September 19 with 55 Beyer)

2. Identical (Peaks and Valleys - Identify, by Halo)
Trainer: Nicholas Zito
- Foaled April 12, 2005 in Kentucky
- half-brother to multiple stakes-winner Distinguish (19-6-2-3, $152,186, 1-3 at two)
- full brother to stakes-winner Pinpoint (12-3-1-0, $143,702, unraced at two)
- withdrawn yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (16-9-3-2, $1,589,270, 3-4 at two, won debut)
- sire is 17-178 (10%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 2-13 (15%, $1.89 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was a sprint winner (9-2-0-0, $38,075, unraced at two, cost $60,000 as a yearling)
- dam has six runners, six winners, three juvenile runners, two juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed Stonehearted (9-3-2-0, $54,153, unraced at two)
- Halo is 3-48 (6%, $0.44 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 24-188 (13%, $1.85 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 1-16 (6%, $0.75 ROI) with debuting Keeneland Babies
- trainer is 6-47 (13%, $3.25 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- September 25 workout matches barn’s juvenile Truth Rules (80 Beyer)
- September 17 workout matches barn’s juvenile Da’Tara (finished second in career debut at Belmont on September 21 with 78 Beyer)
- September 3 workout matches barn’s juvenile Z’s Pitch (finished fifth in career debut at Delaware on October 7 with 41 Beyer)
- July 21 workout matches barn’s juvenile I Am Awesome (finished ninth in career debut at Saratoga on August 18 with 49 Beyer)

3. Hidden Leader (Belong to Me - Sabathani, by Major Impact)
Trainer: Eric Reed
- Foaled January 29, 2005 in Kentucky
- withdrawn yearling (Fasig-Tipton July 2006)
- sire was a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (16-7-3-2, $261,166, 1-3 at two, won debut)
- sire is 31-260 (12%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 2-37 (5%, $1.49 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was a stakes-winner on turf (14-4-1-2, $97,105, unraced at two)
- dam has one runner, one winner, no juvenile runners
- dam a full sister to Grade 3 winner Minor Wisdom (44-10-7-6, $559,560, 0-2 at two)
- Major Impact is 2-9 (22%, $2.98 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 11-79 (14%, $1.52 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 2-26 (8%, $1.97 ROI) with debuting Keeneland Babies
- trainer is 4-37 (11%, $1.17 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- October 1 workout matches barn’s three-year-old Catman Running (88 Beyer top)

4. Bartletts (Mr. Greeley – Prior Park, by Silver Deputy)
Trainer: Anthony Reinstedler
- Foaled February 16, 2005 in Kentucky
- sire was a multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (16-5-6-0, $474,452, 2-6 at two)
- sire is 103-758 (14%) with juvenile runners
- Mr. Greeley – Silver Deputy ‘nick’ produced Grade 1 mile winner El Corredor (10-7-1-0, $727,920, 1-2 at two), and multiple Grade 2 winner Miraculous Miss (13-6-1-2, $569,170, 3-3 at two)
- dam was unraced (cost $150,000 as a yearling)
- dam has two runners, one winner, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- female family of Grade 2 winner Exile King (8-4-1-1, $138,920), Grade 2 route winner Hail Bold King (28-7-7-4, $767,312), and Grade 3 winner Metfield (12-4-1-0, $94,842, 0-1 at two)
- trainer is 0-6 over the past five years with juveniles adding Lasix and blinkers

5. Terryhowieandjimmy (Honour and Glory - Razawan, by Eastern Echo)
Trainer: Frank Springer
- Foaled March 1, 2005 in Kentucky
- $77,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner (17-6-5-2, $1,202,942, 2-4 at two)
- sire is 132-822 (16%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a sprint winner (21-2-3-2, $46,530, unraced at two, cost $22,000 as a yearling)
- dam has three runners, one winner, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winning router Raglan Road (23-4-6-2, $133,998, 1-5 at two), stakes-placed sprinter Surprise Girl (20-1-2-2, $48,250, 1-7 at two), and juvenile stakes-placed router Venturi Effect (36-4-1-4, $61,360, 1-7 at two)
- trainer is 6-15 (40%, $4.41 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 0-1 with second-time juveniles

6. Maite Empire (Empire Maker - Saturday’s Child, by Storm Cat)
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
- Foaled March 23, 2005 in Kentucky
- $425,000 RNA weanling (Keeneland November 2005)
- $395,000 RNA yearling (Fasig-Tipton July 2006)
- first-crop sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (8-4-3-1, $1,985,800, 1-2 at two)
- sire is 3-18 (17%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a sprint stakes-winner at two (5-2-0-0, $34,920, 2-3 at two)
- dam has two runners, no winners, one juvenile runner
- second dam is juvenile stakes-winning sprinter Bashful Charmer (7-2-0-0, $57,225, 2-5 at two)
- trainer is 2-12 (17%, $0.85 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix
- trainer is 0-2 with second-time Keeneland Babies adding Lasix

7. Easy to Remember (Sligo Bay - Holy Lightning, by Holy Bull)
Trainer: Elvie Cobb
- Foaled April 19, 2005 in Kentucky
- $5,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- half-brother to Grade 2 route winner Going Ballistic (16-5-2-3, $671,242, 3-7 at two)
- first-crop sire was a Grade 1 winner on turf (17-4-6-2, $484,695, 1-5 at two)
- sire is 7-48 (15%) with juvenile runners
- dam was sprint placed (5-0-0-1, $6,220, 0-2 at two)
- dam has three runners, two winners, three juvenile runners, one juvenile winner
- second dam is juvenile stakes-winning turfer Blazing Hot (7-2-1-1, $96,170, 2-4 at two)
- trainer is 1-12 (8%, $0.85 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile runners

8. Tizzy (Tiznow - Danzig Til Dawn, by Danzig)
Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
- Foaled January 26, 2005 in Kentucky
- $170,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- half-brother to juvenile stakes-winner Forest Danz (7-3-2-0, $94,820, 2-4 at two, won debut)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (15-8-4-2, $6,427,830, unraced at two)
- sire is 8-89 (9%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 7-64 (11%, $2.02 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was unraced
- dam has three runners, one winner, one juvenile runner, one juvenile winner, one juvenile debut winner
- second dam is stakes-placed sprinter Aly Tigress (13-2-2-2, $58,774, unraced at two)
- Danzig is 7-52 (13%, $1.67 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 14-153 (9%, $1.83 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 4-31 (13%, $1.76 ROI) with debuting Keeneland Babies
- trainer is 4-38 (11%, $1.85 ROI) with all debut runners this year
- September 21 workout matches barn’s juvenile Hard Strike (finished third in career debut at Keeneland on October 6 with 77 Beyer)
- October 5 workout matches barn’s three-year-old Nosybody (73 Beyer top)

9. Moon Tiger (Syncline - Gruda, by Strawberry Road)
Trainer: Del Loveland
- Foaled April 12, 2005 in Kentucky
- sire was a stakes-winner (11-5-3-0, $172,290 0-1 at two)
- sire is 1-11 (9%) with juvenile debut runners
- dam was a sprint winner (10-1-1-2, $3,325, unraced at two)
- dam has three runners, one winner, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- female family of multiple Grade 1 turfer Fraise (34-10-5-6, $2,613,110, unraced at two)
- Strawberry Road is 1-32 (3%, $0.23 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 0-5 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners

10. Escrow (Carson City - Deed I Do, by Alydeed)
Trainer: William Mott
- Foaled April 6, 2005 in Kentucky
- $190,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- sire is a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (15-6-2-0, $306,240, 2-5 at two)
- sire is 302-1505 (20%) with juvenile runners
- dam was Grade 2-placed (15-5-2-2, $216,648, 1-2 at two, cost $210,000 as a juvenile)
- dam has two runners, one winner, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- female family of multiple Grade 3 winner Raja’s Revenge (25-6-4-3, $298,865, 4-9 at two)
- trainer is 28-158 (18%, $1.42 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 2-5 (40%, $2.32 ROI) with second-time Keeneland Babies

11. Cadet Gold (Malabar Gold - Knock On Gin, by Go for Gin)
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
- Foaled April 13, 2005 in Kentucky
- $20,000 short yearling (Fasig-Tipton Winter 2006)
- $67,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select October 2006)
- withdrawn juvenile (OBS Select February 2007)
- sire was a Grade 3 winner (15-6-2-2, $325,622, 1-3 at two)
- sire is 3-42 (7%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 2-36 (6%, $0.74 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was unraced (cost $40,000 as a yearling, and $2,600 as a juvenile)
- dam has one runner, one winner, no juvenile runners
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed turfer Cotopaxi (25-2-5-6, $176,220, unraced at two)
- Go for Gin is 4-21 (19%, $1.47 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 11-113 (10%, $0.88 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 2-25 (8%, $0.68 ROI) with debuting Keeneland Babies
- trainer is 1-29 (3%, $0.23 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007

12. Revenge Is Sweet (Vindication - Urbane, by Citidancer)
Trainer: Paul McGee
- Foaled February 14, 2005 in Kentucky
- half-brother to multiple Grade 2 route winner Suave (27-7-6-2, $1,348,423, 1-5 at two)
- first-crop sire was a Grade 1 winner at two (4-4-0-0, $680,950, all races at two)
- sire is 13-61 (21%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a multiple Grade 1 winner (18-8-4-4, $1,018,568), 2-3 at two, cost $25,000 as a yearling)
- dam has five runners, three winners, three juvenile runners, one juvenile winner
- dam a half-sister to Irish Group 1-placed turfer Karsavina (12-2-3-2, $113,226, 0-2 at two)
- trainer is 6-36 (17%, $1.77 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix
- trainer is 1-4 (25%, $1.10 ROI) with second-time Keeneland Babies adding Lasix

Analysis: HIDDEN LEADER shows a pair of bullet workouts leading to his debut try, and the Keeneland Clocker noted that the son of Belong to Me drilled “in company with Catman Running, these two finished full of run” on October 1. Catman Running won the Battaglia Memorial earlier this year for trainer Eric Reed so that workout looks promising indeed.
ESCROW finished with a flurry in the career debut at Turfway, and earned a very competitive Beyer for the red-hot Bill Mott. The Keeneland Clocker noted that he “was off slowly, and finished with good energy” in his September 28 workout. BARTLETTS had the misfortune to tackle a runaway winner at Presque Isle Downs, but adds Lasix and blinkers for this assignment, and should show good speed in this spot. He shows some quick recent works, and we can presume that he was wearing his new blinkers during those much-improved drills.
MAITE EMPIRE was bought back for big money on two occasions at public auction, and almost vindicated those business decisions with a hard-charging finish in his debut at Turfway. Ian Wilkes has much-better numbers with second-timers than with firsters, and Maite Empire gets Lasix and more ground to work with.

Selections:
1. Hidden Leader
2. Escrow
3. Bartletts

The play: Hidden Leader to win at 7-2 or more

Race 8
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Allowance (N2L)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $52,000

Analysis: SCHOOL GIRL bled in her career debut when finishing just behind the promising Dreaming of Liz, and then was life and death to hold off the runner-up when taking a special weight with the addition of Lasix. She owns a slight Beyer edge, and the bullet workout on September 23 allays fears of a major regression. She rates a narrow selection in a contentious allowance.
Blinkers were just what the doctor ordered for EASY PROFIT as she showed improved early speed, and drew away in the lane. She still looked a bit green drifting in the stretch, but her gate zip should have her in the hunt from the get-go. DO THE TIGER pressed a quick second quarter-mile en route to her victory at Louisiana Downs, but early speed, and pace pressers seemed to do very well that day. The New York-bred may work out a nice outside stalking trip under Calvin Borel.
VALENTINE FEVER closed with a rush to win her maiden over the Turfway polytrack, and a quick early pace would work to her advantage. RUMARI has the most experience of these juvenile fillies and it’s possible she just didn’t take hold of that Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs. She has a favorable stalking style, will go out for top connections, and her numbers put her right in the mix.

Selections:
1. School Girl
2. Easy Profit
3. Do the Tiger

The play: No play

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager): 18-3-8 (-$11.00)