10/10/2008 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/12

Email

Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully add to the profits from "Spa Babies."

Saturday's result:
Race 6: Double Pittsburgh finished third

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Race 6
6 1/2 Furlongs
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

1. Cherokee Star (Cherokee Run - Spanked, by Deputy Minister)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Foaled February 5, 2006 in Kentucky
- $100,000 short yearling (Keeneland January 2006)
- out yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner (28-13-5-5, $1,531,818, 5-7 at two, 10-17 in main track sprints)
- sire is 170-1092 (16%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unplaced (1-0-0-0, $1,980, unraced at two, raced in main track sprint, cost $650,000 as a yearling)
- this is dam's first runner
- Cherokee Run - Deputy Minister 'nick' has produced juvenile Grade 2 winner Dream About (7-2-1-0, $235,463, 2-5 at two, 1-5 in main track sprints)
- dam a half-sister to juvenile Grade 3-placed sprinter Tipperary Melody (6-1-3-1, $68,540, all races sprinting on the main track at two)
- trainer is 77-309 (25%, $1.45 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 2-9 (22%, $1.69 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles at Keeneland

2. Striking Dancer (Smart Strike - Dancing Shoes, by Danehill)
Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
- Foaled February 13, 2006 in Kentucky
- $110,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner (8-6-1-0, $337,376, unraced at two, 2-3 in main track sprints)
- sire is 111-640 (17%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unplaced (1-0-0-0, $0, raced on turf at two in England)
- this is dam's first runner
- dam a three-quarter sister to Grade 1-placed turf runner Zarani Sidi Anna (15-4-2-3, $149,504, 1-1 at two, unraced in main track sprints))
- trainer is 7-25 (28%, $2.21 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix
- trainer is 1-5 (20%, $2.76 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding Lasix at Keeneland

3. Sally J (Concorde's Tune - Heaven's Notebook, by Notebook)
Trainer: Darrin Miller
- Foaled March 21, 2006 in Florida
- withdrawn juvenile (OBS Open March 2008)
- $155,000 juvenile (OBS Open June 2008)
- sire was a multiple stakes-winner (28-12-4-4, $242,585, 1-2 at two, 9-20 in main track sprints)
- sire is 15-179 (8%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 1-28 (4%, $1.89 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (older winner)
- dam was a winner (16-4-1-4, $62,735, 2-10 at two, 3-12 in main track sprints)
- this is dam's first runner
- Notebook is 6-49 (12%, $1.86 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (all older winners)
- second dam is juvenile stakes-winning sprinter I'm In Heaven (4-2-0-0, $44,169, 2-2 at two, all races in main track sprints)
- trainer is 3-37 (8%, $0.85 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-4 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer is 2-11 (18%, $1.64 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (both juvenile winners without Lasix for this owner)
- worked two furlongs in 21.20 prior to the June sale
- August 1, August 8, August 15, October 2 workouts match barn's three-year-old filly Anachini (finished third in 'n1x' allowance at Keeneland on October 10 with 78 Beyer)
-August 29 workout matches barn's juvenile filly Oculuna (53 Beyer top on dirt)

4. Lady's Laughter (Distorted Humor - Lady Tap, by Pleasant Tap)
Trainer: Charles Lopresti
- Foaled February 14, 2006 in Keeneland
- $450,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was a multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (23-8-5-3, $769,964, unraced at two, 7-13 in main track sprints)
- sire is 39-214 (18%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 7-54 (13%, $2.10 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (one juvenile debut winner, one winner on synthetics)
- dam was a stakes-winner (24-5-3-5, $231,198, 1-2 at two, won debut, 4-17 in main track sprints, cost $250,000 as a yearling)
- dam has two runners, one winner, no juvenile runners, two main track sprint runners, one main track sprint winner
- Pleasant Tap is 1-42 (2%, $0.87 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (juvenile debut winner)
- dam a half-sister to multiple juvenile stakes-placed sprinter Golden Spirit (7-1-2-1, $36,324, all races at two, 0-4 in main track sprints)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed Gorky (41-8-10-3, $285,263, 1-3 at two, 2-6 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 0-7 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer is 0-1 with all debut runners in 2008
- September 23, September 30 workouts match barn's three-year-old filly Happenstance (0 Beyer in only start)

5. Grey Harbor (Tapit - Harve de Grace, by Boston Harbor)
Trainer: Gregory Foley
- Foaled February 15, 2006 in Kentucky
- $25,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- first-crop sire was a Grade 1 route winner (6-3-0-0, $557,300, 2-2 at two, unraced in main track sprints)
- sire is 1-33 (3%, $0.24 ROI) with juvenile debut runners in 2008
- dam was a sprint winner (6-2-0-0, $25,530, 0-1 at two, 2-5 in main track sprints, cost $40,000 as a yearling)
- this is dam's first runner
- Boston Harbor doesn't have a debut winner as a broodmare sire in 2008
- dam a half-sister to Grade 2-placed juvenile Deb's Charm (6-1-1-2, $83,550, 1-3 at two, 1-5 in main track sprints)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed router Early Vintage (8-1-2-2, $62,484, 1-1 at two, 1-5 in main track sprints)
- dam a half-sister to juvenile Grade 3 sprint winner Tasha's Miracle (10-2-3-2, $334,792, 2-5 at two, 2-5 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 9-86 (10%, N/A) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-4 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer is 0-13 with all debut runners in 2008

6. Afleet Deceit (Northern Afleet - Deceit, by Danzig)
Trainer: Terry Gestes
- Foaled March 20, 2006 in Kentucky
- $17,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- sire was a multiple Grade 2 winner (21-5-3-5, $626,671, 1-3 at two, 3-11 in main track sprints)
- sire is 90-501 (18%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a sprint winner at two in the mud (5-1-1-0, $12,330, all races at two, 1-3 in main track sprints)
- dam has two runners, no winners, one juvenile runner, two main track sprint runners
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed router Cercatore (16-2-8-0, $87,879, 0-2 at two, unraced in main track sprints)
- dam a full sister to stakes-placed turfer Green Door (11-3-1-2, $76,840, 0-1 at two, 1-2 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 4-15 (27%, $1.13 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoff

7. Yoyo (Yonaguska - Ms Media, by Media Starguest)
Trainer: Luis Seglin
- Foaled April 1, 2006 in Kentucky
- $14,000 RNA weanling (OBS Fall October 2006)
- $10,000 short yearling (Keeneland January 2007)
- $10,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner at two (18-6-1-5, $536,355, 3-7 at two, 6-15 in main track sprints)
- sire is 69-450 (15%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a sprint winner (52-3-5-2, $57,051, 0-1 at two, 3-37 in main track sprints, cost $13,500 as a juvenile)
- this is dam's first runner
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Carouse (50-12-6-9, $152,960, 2-5 at two, 7-28 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 5-46 (11%, $3.87 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile runners
- trainer is 1-5 (20%, $11.72 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile runners at Keeneland

8. Stone Legacy (Birdstone - Gulch Legacy, by Gulch)
Trainer: D Wayne Lukas
- Foaled May 5, 2006 in Kentucky
- first-crop sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (9-5-0-0, $1,575,600, 2-3 at two, 1-2 in main track sprints)
- sire is 10-56 (18%) with juvenile runners in 2008
- dam was a winner (14-4-1-2, $145,501, 0-1 at two, 1-5 in main track sprints)
- dam has three runners, one winner, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners, one main track sprint runner, one main track sprint winner)
- dam a half-sister to Grade 1 route winner Catinca (20-9-5-4, $864,775, 0-1 at two, 4-12 in main track sprints)
-trainer is 9-155 (6%, $0.82 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles adding Lasix for the first time
- trainer is 2-19 (11%, $0.99 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles adding Lasix for the first time at Keeneland

9. Step Out Smartly (Came Home - Fashion Planner, by Capote)
Trainer: George Arnold II
- Foaled March 1, 2006 in Kentucky
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner (12-9-0-0, $1,835,940, 3-4 at two, won debut, 4-4 in main track sprints)
- sire is 10-71 (14%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 8-45 (18%, $2.48 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (two juvenile debut winners, two winners on synthetics)
- dam was a route winner at two (9-1-1-1, $48,425, 1-5 at two, 0-3 in main track sprints, cost $185,000 as a yearling)
-dam has two runners, two winners, one juvenile runner, one juvenile debut winner, one main track sprint runner, one main track sprint winner
- Capote is 11-81 (14%, $1.64 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (six juvenile debut winners)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed router Quite Rightly (45-3-8-7, $149,770, unraced at two, 1-5 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 12-78 (15%, N/A) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 1-9 (11%, N/A) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer is 1-24 (4%, N/A) with all debut runners in 2008 (older winner with Lasix for this owner with Jesus Castanon aboard)
- September 7 workout matches barn's juvenile filly Monastic City (finished eighth in career debut on turf at Kentucky Downs on September 23 with 0 Beyer)
- September 20 workout matches barn's juvenile filly Guarda (finished second in maiden special weight at Keeneland on October 4 with 67 Beyer)

10. Dr. Zic (Milwaukee Brew - Royal Corona, by Holy Bull)
Trainer: Joan Scott
- Foaled March 23, 2006 in Kentucky
- withdrawn yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- $40,000 juvenile (OBS Open June 2008)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (24-8-4-5, $2,879,612, unraced at two, 0-2 in main track sprints)
- sire is 10-65 (15%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 6-54 (11%, $1.33 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (five juvenile debut winners)
- dam was a winner (11-3-2-3, $131,619, unraced at two, 2-8 in main track sprints)
- dam has two runners, no winners, one juvenile runner, two main track sprint runners
- Holy Bull is 6-46 (13%, $1.92 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (four juvenile debut winners, one on synthetics)
- second dam is stakes-placed Miss Oceanette (23-4-6-3, $102,277, 0-1 at two, 4-14 in main track sprints)
- trainer is 2-28 (7%, $2.34 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-2 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer is 2-6 (33%, $3.67 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (both older winners with Lasix)
- worked a furlong in 10.20 prior to the June sale
- September 2 workout matches barn's three-year-old filly Donnay (finished seventh in 'n2L' allowance at Presque Isle Downs on September 21 with 47 Beyer)

11. Venado (Unbridled's Song - Swearingen, by Deposit Ticket)
Trainer: John Kimmel
- Foaled March 21, 2006 in Kentucky
- $150,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (12-5-4-0, $1,311,800, 2-3 at two, 2-4 in main track sprints)
- sire is 105-561 (19%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a multiple stakes-winner on turf (37-9-4-7, $673,233, 3-6 at two, 0-2 in main track sprints, cost $32,000 as a yearling, and $95,000 as a juvenile)
- dam has foaled three runners, one winner, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners, three main track sprint runners, one main track sprint winner
- dam a half-sister to stakes-placed turfer Other (36-6-9-2, $97,570, unraced at two, 0-4 in main track sprints)
- dam a half-sister to Grade 3-placed sprinter Firey Jennifer (49-4-5-4, $153,115, unraced at two, 4-43 in main track sprints)
- dam a half-sister to Grade 3-placed juvenile sprinter Adage (9-1-3-0, $72,391, 1-6 at two, all races in main track sprints)
- trainer is 9-66 (14%, $1.12 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles

12. Satin Thunder (Thunder Gulch - Satin and Lace, by Kissin Kris)
Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
- Foaled April 13, 2006 in Kentucky
- $75,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland September 2007)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (16-9-2-2, $2,915,086, 2-6 at two, 1-3 in main track sprints)
- sire is 22-251 (9%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 3-37 (8%, $1.37 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (two juvenile debut winners, one on synthetics)
- dam was unraced (cost $7,500 as a juvenile)
- dam has two runners, one winner, two juvenile runners, no juvenile winners, two main track sprint runners, no main track sprint winners
- Kissin Kris is 2-27 (7%, $1.98 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2008 (one juvenile debut winner)
- dam a half-sister to stakes-winner Drina (44-11-6-5, $205,682, unraced at two, 0-7 in main track sprints, dam of multiple Grade 1 winner Spain)
- trainer is 15-137 (11%, $2.03 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 3-34 (9%, $1.52 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners at Keeneland
- trainer is 8-44 (18%, $2.30 ROI) with all debut runners in 2008 (seven winners with Lasix, five juvenile debut winners, three winners on synthetics, one at Keeneland, one with Kent Desormeaux aboard)
- August 16, September 4, September 10, September 18 workouts match barn's juvenile filly The Best Day Ever (finished fourth in career debut on October 8 at Keeneland with 55 Beyer)
- August 23 workout matches barn's three-year-old filly My Baby Baby (finished first in the Pleasant Temper Stakes on turf at Kentucky Downs on September 22 with 84 Beyer)

Analysis:
AFLEET DECEIT stumbled badly just after the start of her career debut at Arlington, then rallied powerfully in the stretch to just miss by a nose. She galloped out several lengths past the winner that day, and earned a big 89 Beyer Speed Figure. Last time out, she was thrown to the wolves in the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Lassie, but passed tired horses for fourth, and should appreciate dropping back with maidens this afternoon.
STRIKING DANCER drifted out a bit late when finishing evenly on grass at Saratoga. She also earned a solid Beyer, and can certainly move forward considering the fact that her high-percentage trainer adds Lasix for this start.
CHEROKEE STAR goes out for the potent team of John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher after just missing in her career debut at Monmouth. She was a bit late to switch leads that day, however, and must now deal with the difficult inside post.
STONE LEGACY also adds Lasix, and she ran on for second behind Pyro's little sister, War Echo, going a one-turn mile at Belmont. SALLY J looks like a quick one with a couple of bullet works over the polytrack. She catches a pretty salty field for her debut, however. SATIN THUNDER also shows a bullet work at Keeneland, but is bred for longer distances. VENADO didn't have the easiest of trips in her career debut at Belmont, and can move forward off that effort for John Kimmel. YOYO may have been too keen with blinkers on in her turf debut at Ellis Park, and may revert to stalking tactics without the hood today. DR. ZIC worked a bullet out of the gate here four days ago, but is another that may do better with a race under her belt. STEP OUT SMARTLY's dam won going long, and she may improve as the distances increase. LADY'S LAUGHTER cost $450,000 at auction, and is by a high-percentage first-out sire, but the works fail to excite. GREY HARBOR's first-crop sire isn't doing well with debut runners, and there is a 17-day gap between the last two workouts.

Selections:
1. Afleet Deceit
2. Striking Dancer
3. Cherokee Star

The Play:
Afleet Deceit - Striking Dancer Exacta
Afleet Deceit - Cherokee Star Exacta

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager):
20-5-10 (+ $6.00)