10/10/2009 12:00AM

Keeneland Babies for 10/11

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet.  Hopefully, we'll end up with a tidy profit.

Saturday's results:
Race 3 - Petite Fuego finished fourth
Race 4 - Crystal Moment finished fourth
Race 8 - Noble's Promise finished first


Sunday, October 11, 2009

Race 7
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

1.  HEAVEN'S GRACE (Untuttable - Heaven's Gate, by Septieme Ciel)
TRAINER:  Eric Reed
JOCKEY:  Leandro Goncalves
DATE FOALED:   March 7, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Florida
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  TAP DANCER (half-brother, stakes-winning router at two, 18-2-3-3, $175,087, 2-7 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints); THIS ONES FOR PHIL (full brother, Grade 2 sprint winner, 13-4-2-1, $362,840, 2-8 at two, 3-7 in main track sprints)
SIRE RACE RECORD:  Winner on turf (5-1-1-1, $32,230, unraced at two, unraced in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:  3-77 (4%) with juvenile debut runners; 1-20 (5%, $0.69 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (juvenile debut winner)
DAM RACE RECORD:  Unraced
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  9 runners, 8 winners, 7 juvenile runners, 5 juvenile winners, 2 juvenile debut winners, 9 main track sprint runners, 6 main track sprint winners)
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  YES MINISTER (half-brother, stakes-placed sprinter at two, 41-12-5-4, $148,665, 1-2 at two, won debut, 11-37 in main track sprints); STOLEN BEAUTY (half-sister, Grade 2 route winner at two, 33-5-6-6, $303,894, 2-3 at two, won debut, 1-6 in main track sprints);  FINALITY (half-brother, Grade 2 winner on turf, 15-5-4-1, $375,075, 1-6 at two, 0-2 in main track sprints)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  3-14 (21%, $3.39 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (1 juvenile debut winner over synthetic)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  3-34 (9%, $1.01 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight synthetic sprints (1-12, 8%, $1.46 ROI at Keeneland); 3-41 (7%, $0.66 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (all older winners with Lasix, 2 on synthetics)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  July 7 workout matches barn's juvenile NEVER BETTER (finished fifth in career debut in a $40,000 maiden claimer over Presque Isle Downs' Tapeta surface on September 4 with a 20 Beyer); July 14 workout matches barn's juvenile ANGUS KAHN (finished fourth in the Mountaineer Juvenile Stakes on August 1 with 44 Beyer); July 28 workout matches barn's juvenile filly URANIUM (41 Beyer top); August 11 workout matches barn's juvenile filly VANCY SHOES (finished fifth in a $40,000 maiden claimer over Presque Isle Downs' Tapeta surface on September 3 with 28 Beyer); September 8 workout matches barn's juvenile filly PORTEND (finished fifth in career debut in maiden special weight on turf at Kentucky Downs on September 19 with 42 Beyer); September 29 workout matches barn's juvenile filly STAR RECRUIT (65 Beyer top)

2.  NO SUCH WORD (Canadian Frontier - Muskoka Ice, by It's Freezing)
TRAINER:  J. Larry Jones
JOCKEY:  Jeremy Rose
DATE FOALED:   February 17, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   Out yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 3 sprint winner (13-6-1-1, $253,239, unraced at two, 6-11 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   13-82 (16%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD: Sprint winner (30-1-6-1, $48,167, 0-7 at two, 1-16 in main track sprints, cost $24,000 as weanling, and $37,000 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  7 runners, 6 winners, 6 juvenile runners, 3 juvenile winners, 7 main track sprint runners, 5 main track sprint winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  KARMANI (half-brother, multiple stakes-winner, 53-11-12-11, $369,147, unraced at two, 1-4 in main track sprints); TUVA (half-brother, stakes-placed sprinter at two, 105-12-21-15, $97,874, 1-3 at two, 12-103 in main track sprints)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-1 over the past five years with juvenile runners going dirt to synthetic in maiden special weight sprints

3.  QUIET CLASS (Kitten's Joy - Balancing Act by Spectacular Bid)
TRAINER:  Ralph Nicks
JOCKEY:  Francisco Torres
DATE FOALED:   April 1, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  TIP THE SCALE (half-sister, stakes-winner, 26-9-4-1, $129,530, unraced at two, 0-4 in main track sprints); ELEUSIS (half-sister, Grade 2 turf winner, 10-6-1-0, $165,801, unraced at two, all races on turf)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 winner on turf (14-9-4-0, $2,075,791, 2-4 at two, 0-1 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   3-31 (10%, $0.81 ROI) with juvenile debut runners in 2009 (first crop, 1 winner on synthetic)
DAM RACE RECORD:  Sprint winner (11-2-1-3, $22,855, unraced at two, 2-7 in main track sprints)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  11 runners, 9 winners, 4 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winners, 1 juvenile debut winner, 8 main track sprint runners, 4 main track sprint winners)
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  PEAKS AND VALLEYS (half-brother, multiple Grade 1 route winner, 16-9-3-2, $1,589,270, 3-4 at two, won debut, 4-6 in main track sprints); ALTERNATE (half-sister, multiple stakes-winner, 23-6-7-4, $550,695, unraced at two, 1-2 in main track sprints)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  2-20 (10%, $0.98 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (both older winners)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-6 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight synthetic sprints (0-3 at Keeneland); 1-10 (10%, $0.52 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (juvenile debut winner with Lasix)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  September 1 workout matches barn's three-year-old filly ATHENA BALLERINA (56 Beyer top)

4.  STRICTLY (Fusaichi Pegasus - Dancing, by Spectrum)
TRAINER:  Andrew McKeever
JOCKEY:  James Graham
DATE FOALED:   April 2, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $110,000 weanling (Keeneland, November 2007)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 route winner (9-6-2-0, $1,994,400, 0-1 at two, 1-2 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   18-183 (10%) with juvenile debut runners; 8-47 (17%, $1.77 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (2 juvenile debut winners on synthetic, 4 overall winners on synthetic)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Grade 2 sprint winner (16-4-1-1, $183,342, 1-3 at two, 1-2 in main track sprints)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  1 runner, 0 winners, 0 juvenile runners, 1 main track sprint runner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  Third dam is multiple stakes-winner GUINEVERE'S FOLLY (multiple stakes-winner, 14-4-1-3, $60,982)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  0 debut winners as the broodmare sire of debut runners in North America in 2009
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight synthetic sprints (Keeneland, 2007); 2-8 (25%, $2.60 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (both older winners with Lasix on synthetics)

5.  VACATUR (Vicar - American Slew, by Quiet American)
TRAINER:  Ian Wilkes
JOCKEY:  Frederic Lenclud
DATE FOALED:   January 30, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $75,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  CITY ATTRACTION (full brother, Grade 3 sprint winner, 22-5-6-2, $258,900, 2-3 at two, 5-17 in main track sprints); VICARIAN (full brother, multiple stakes-placed sprinter, 28-4-9-4, $259,995, 0-3 at two, 4-26 in main track sprints)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 route winner (17-4-2-3, $835,142, 2-3 at two, won debut, 1-6 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   14-139 (10%) with juvenile debut runners; 3-41 (7%, $1.02 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older winner on synthetic)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Winner (15-2-4-1, $87,855, 0-2 at two, 1-6 in main track sprints, cost $120,000 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  3 runners, 3 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 3 main track sprint runners, 2 main track sprint winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  YOU'RE THE ONE (half-brother, Grade 3-placed router at two, 12-2-1-1, $77,391, 1-3 at two, 1-2 in main track sprints); MISS MARTA (half-sister, multiple stakes-placed, 17-7-4-0, $166,674, unraced at two, 3-8 in main track sprints); CERITA (half-sister, multiple stakes-placed, 17-2-3-3, $88,871, 0-7 at two, 0-3 in main track sprints)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  5-53 (9%, $1.49 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (3 juvenile debut winners)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-23 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight synthetic sprints (0-9 at Keeneland); 3-26 (12%, $3.68 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older winner with Lasix and front wraps on synthetic)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  September 22, October 6 workouts match barn's uncoupled stablemate TABBY

6.  HARLAN'S PRINCESS (Harlan's Holiday - Pocketbook Passion, by Siphon)
TRAINER:  Kenneth McPeek
JOCKEY:  Robby Albarado
DATE FOALED:   February 20, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $37,000 RNA weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); $65,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008); $60,000 RNA juvenile (OBS Select, February 2009)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 route winner (22-9-6-1, $3,632,664, 4-6 at two, 2-3 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   17-112 (15%) with juvenile debut runners; 8-47 (17%, $1.93 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (5 juvenile debut winners, 3 on synthetics)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Unplaced (1-0-0-0, $0, sprinted on the main track at two)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  This is first starter
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  SILVER REUNION (half-sister, stakes-winner on turf, 7-4-0-0, $138,570, 1-2 at two, 1-3 in main track sprints)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  5-29 (17%, $2.68 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (2 juvenile debut winners, 1 on synthetics, 2 overall winners on synthetics)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  4-34 (12%, $1.78 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight synthetic sprints (2-24, 8%, $1.90 ROI at Keeneland); 10-66 (15%, $1.77 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (5 juvenile debut winners, 4 winners with Robby Albarado aboard, 9 winners with Lasix, 1 with front wraps)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  Worked 1 furlong in 10.0 prior to the February auction; August 22 workout matches barn's juvenile OUR SECOND FITZ (finished sixth in maiden special weight over Turfway Park's polytrack surface on September 12 with 29 Beyer, broke maiden for $15,000 tag in subsequent start); September 12 workout matches barn's juvenile filly MAESTRO MISS (finished second in career debut in maiden special weight over Turfway Park's polytrack on September 19 with 41 Beyer); October 3 workout matches barn's four-year-old filly MY BABY BABY (101 Beyer top)

7.  ANDREA LOUISE (Yankee Gentleman - Pete's Flair, by Peteski)
TRAINER:  Jerome Miller
JOCKEY:  Calvin Borel
DATE FOALED:   March 29, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   Withdrawn weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); Withdrawn yearling (Keeneland, September 2008); $1,000 RNA yearling (Fasig-Tipton, October 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:  Stakes-winner (10-4-1-0, $202,547, unraced at two, 3-7 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   12-88 (14%) with juvenile debut runners; 4-44 (9%, $0.90 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (all juvenile debut winners, 2 on synthetics)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Sprint winner (74-5-5-11, $63,841, unraced at two, 5-68 in main track sprints, cost $11,000 as weanling, $15,000 as juvenile)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  2 runners, 2 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winners, 2 main track sprint runners, 1 main track sprint winner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  GUARIQUE (half-brother, multiple Group 2 winner in Peru); GALICA (half-sister, multiple stakes-placed router, 40-8-6-9, $169,795, unraced at two, 0-5 in main track sprints)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  1-15 (7%, $0.75 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (older winner on synthetic)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-1 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight synthetic sprints (Keeneland, April 2009); 0-3 with all debut runners in 2009

8.  TABBY (Storm Cat - Affluent, by Affirmed)
TRAINER:  Ian Wilkes
JOCKEY:  Julien Leparoux
DATE FOALED:   March 18, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 route winner at two (8-4-3-0, $570,610, 3-6 at two, 3-4 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   74-397 (19%) with juvenile debut runners; 1-27 (4%, $0.22 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (juvenile debut winner) 
DAM RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 winner (23-8-5-4, $1,497,651, 1-1 at two, 3-5 in main track sprints)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  1 runner, 1 winner, 0 juvenile runners, 1 main track sprint winner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  Third dam is multiple Grade/Group 1 winner BAYAKOA (31-18-6-0, $2,785,259, unraced at two, 1-4 in main track sprints)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  8-61 (13%, $1.32 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009 (4 juvenile debut winners, 1 older winner on synthetic)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-23 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight synthetic sprints (0-9 at Keeneland); 3-26 (12%, $3.68 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older winner with Lasix and front wraps on synthetic)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  September 22, October 6 workouts match barn's uncoupled stablemate VACATUR

9.  AQUALANE SHORES (Friends Lake - Wishes Come True, by Honour and Glory)
TRAINER:  Robert Holthus
JOCKEY:  Jamie Theriot
DATE FOALED:   April 14, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $18,000 RNA weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); $100,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Summer, July 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 route winner (7-3-0-1, $696,400, 2-3 at two, 1-2 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:  30-170 (18%) with juvenile runners  
DAM RACE RECORD:   Unraced (cost $31,000 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  4 runners, 1 winner, 4 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winners, 4 main track sprint runners, 0 main track sprint winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  VICTORY PIPER (half-brother, Group 2 winner on turf at two in Ireland); SUIVEZ LA (half-sister, Group 3-placed on turf in France, 23-3-3-3, $110,055, 0-1 at two, all races on turf)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-6 over the past five years with second-out juveniles in maiden special weight synthetic sprints (0-1 at Keeneland)

10.  NAUGHTY BITS (Value Plus - Bergen, by Deputy Commander)
TRAINER:  Edward Frederick
JOCKEY:  James Lopez
DATE FOALED:   February 7, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   Withdrawn weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); $9,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Stakes-winning sprinter (15-3-4-1, $414,595, 1-4 at two, won debut, 3-8 in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   4-26 (15%, $3.37 ROI) with juvenile debut runners in 2009 (first crop) 
DAM RACE RECORD:   Placed routing (9-0-1-1, $6,825, 0-3 at two, 0-4 in main track sprints, cost $85,000 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  This is first starter
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  Third dam is multiple stakes-winner SENATE APPOINTEE (33-20-5-2, $543,330, 6-9 at two, 8-13 in main track sprints)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  0 winners as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2009
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-4 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight synthetic sprints (0-1 at Keeneland); 0-2 with all debut runners in 2009

11.  AUTUMN EYES (Stormy Atlantic - Caustic Remark, by Mutakddim)
TRAINER:  Eddie Kenneally
JOCKEY:  Corey Lanerie
DATE FOALED:   February 15, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $120,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple stakes-winning sprinter (15-6-2-1, $148,126, 0-1 at two, all races in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   171-1133 (15%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD:   Multiple stakes-placed (28-5-2-3, $106,290, 1-2 at two, 1-7 in main track sprints, cost $7,000 as weanling, $42,000 as yearling, $60,000 as juvenile)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  2 runners, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runner, 1 main track sprint runner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  DE HILL (half-brother, stakes-placed router, 45-4-2-5, $19,251, 0-7 at two, 0-9 in main track sprints); MAJESTIC NASR (half-brother, stakes-winner, 70-18-10-14, $280,559, 0-4 at two, 2-16 in main track sprints); TAMMI'S PAL (half-sister, multiple stakes-winner, 25-5-6-1, $110,206, 1-3 at two, 4-19 in main track sprints)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  3-45 (7%, $0.37 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile runners in maiden special weight synthetic sprints (0-19 at Keeneland)

12.  WILDCAT DREAMER (Forest Wildcat - Western Dreamer, by Gone West)
TRAINER:  Barbara Beagle
JOCKEY:  Willie Martinez
DATE FOALED:   January 5, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $125,000 RNA yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select, August 2008); Withdrawn yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select, October 2008); Withdrawn juvenile (Keeneland, April 2009)
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  WHITE SOCKS (half-brother, Grade 3-placed sprinter, 8-1-2-1, $65,140, unraced at two, all races in main track sprints)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 3 sprint winner (20-9-2-1, $478,862, 2-5 at two, all races in main track sprints)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   168-995 (17%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD:   Stakes-winning sprinter at two (8-2-2-3, $164,234, 2-7 at two, 2-7 in main track sprints, cost $52,000 as yearling, $225,000 as juvenile)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  7 runners, 5 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winners, 7 main track sprint runners, 3 main track sprint winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  REAL WEST (full brother, stakes-placed, 20-4-5-1, $144,222, 1-3 at two, 3-13 in main track sprints); WOULDN'T WE ALL (half-brother, stakes-winning sprinter, 54-12-9-6, $407,370, 0-1 at two, 7-39 in main track sprints); TRAJECTORY (full brother, multiple stakes-winner, 10-6-3-0, $279,784, unraced at two, 3-5 in main track sprints)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-4 over the past five years with juvenile runners removing blinkers in maiden special weight synthetic sprints (all at Keeneland)

Analysis: 
ANDREA LOUISE was a $1,000 buyback last year so it's very interesting that Calvin Borel takes the mount for low-profile barn.  The sire does well with debut runners, and Andrea Louise has been working fairly quickly.  The price should be right. 
TABBY owns a beautiful pedigree as she's by the great Storm Cat out of Affluent, a mare that earned eight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures in her career.  Affluent was extremely versatile as she won the Grade 1 Santa Monica going seven furlongs on the main track as well as the John C. Mabee at 1 1/8 miles on turf.  She also had the misfortune to chase the top mare Azeri on multiple occasions, finishing second to that one in three straight Grade 1 races.
NO SUCH WORD has the experience edge on the top two selections, and she showed some improvement when third over a sloppy Delaware strip last time out.  The runner-up of that race, Ms Vanezza, returned to graduate in the Blue Hen Stakes at Delaware with a 78 Beyer.  This will be No Such Word's first race on a synthetic surface so demand value. 
WILDCAT DREAMER removes the blinkers after a disappointing run at Presque Isle Downs last time out.  She showed some potential in her career debut, and the Keeneland clocker noted that she was "in hand for the first 3 furlongs (37.0 split), finished the work with good energy" for the October 2 drill over polytrack.  Expect a better showing here.
AUTUMN EYES raced greenly in both career efforts, but has some early speed, and could be a strong pace presence under Corey Lanerie.  The winner of her most recent start, Petite Fuego, bombed as the favorite in a 'n2L' allowance race here on Saturday's card. 
HARLAN'S PRINCESS worked a furlong in 10 seconds flat prior to being bought back for $65,000 earlier this year.  The most recent workout looks interesting, and these connections are shrewd indeed.  QUIET CLASS may want a bit more ground to work with.  AQUALANE SHORES didn't have the smoothest of trips in her career debut at Turfway Park, and the $100,000 yearling purchase took some money for that heat.  The winner of that race returned to finish sixth here on Saturday.  HEAVEN'S GRACE is a full sister to This Ones For Phil, the winner of the Sunshine Millions Dash at six furlongs with a 115 Beyer earlier this year.  She draws a tough inside post, though, and may benefit from the experience. STRICTLY is by Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus, and may want some more distance.  VACATUR is kin to City Attraction (three triple-digit Beyers sprinting) and Vicarian (103 Beyer when stakes-placed sprinting in 2008).  The board should give us somre more clues.  NAUGHTY BITS may be in a bit steep.

Selections:
1.  Andrea Louise  2.  Tabby  3.  No Such Word

The Play:
Andrea Louise to Win and Place at 10-1 odds or greater


***

Race 8
1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Bourbon Stakes (Grade 3)
2-year-olds

Analysis:
ASPHALT was working nicely leading up to his career debut at Saratoga, but the race was washed off the turf, and Asphalt finished behind the highly-regarded Stately Victor over the good main track.  When given an opportunity to race on turf, Asphalt responded with a game score at Belmont.  This will be his first start around two turns, but the son of Breeders' Cup Mile hero War Chant has flashed some ability.
INTERACTIF looms the one to beat following a successful turf debut in the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga at this 1 1/16 mile distance.  Two horses have come out of the With Anticipation to win including Red Rally's 88 Beyer performance on dirt in the Louisiana Stallion Stakes.  Interactif's only bad race came against Backtalk going short on the main track, and this Todd Pletcher-trained son of Broken Vow deserves a good deal of respect.
Pletcher also sends out EXHI, a colt that won his turf debut by open lengths after relaxing on an easy early lead.  Exhi will likely have to rally past rivals in this spot, but his maiden win was promising, and another forward move isn't out of the question. 
BILLIONS BOY has done little wrong in three turf starts for John Kimmel, and he finished ahead of a pair of next-out winners when graduating in gate-to-wire fashion at this distance at the Spa.  One of those winners, Eskendereya, returned to take the off-the-turf Pilgrim Stakes for Pletcher with a 90 Beyer.  Like Exhi, Billions Boy may have to prove his mettle from just off the pace. 
Pletcher's third Bourbon entrant, MODERN COWBOY, won his career debut in slow time in an off-the-turf event at Delaware Park.  This one is a half to Hype, who placed in the Grade 3 Generous Stakes on the grass as a juvenile.  The works looks solid for Modern Cowboy, and the aggressive placement is encouraging.
Throw out SCOTTKEITH'SKITTEN's most recent race.  Getting beat thirty lengths in the Cradle at River Downs confirms that he just isn't the same horse on the main track.  By Kitten's Joy, Scottkeith'skitten is bred for the grass, and he won his maiden at this distance two back over the Saratoga sod.  He can work out a good ground-saving trip under Julien Leparoux, and should have pace to run at late.  CODOY ran some solid middle fractions when graduating over polytrack at Turfway Park, but he'll bring an 0-3 turf record to this graded stakes against some promising young rivals.  FAMILY FOUNDATION is a perfect 2-2 on the grass, but this will be his toughest test to date.  He has the right running style for this race, however, and isn't the worst longshot stab in the world. TURF MELODY tried turf for the first time.  As a half-brother to San Luis Rey winner Stanley Park, he should like it.  RAGING WIT draws a tough outside post, and will have to stretch out 2 1/2 furlongs from his maiden win over Turfway's polytrack course.  GUYS REWARD is in sneaky-good form, but the outside post could pose some problems going into the first turn.  HARRODS CREEK may be a bit better on the main track.  ACTIVITY REPORT looms one of the main speeds, but his stamina is suspect.

Selections:
1.  Asphalt  2.  Interactif  3.  Exhi

The Play:
Asphalt to Win at 7-2 odds or greater

***


Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager): 6-1-2 (+ 25.10)