10/09/2007 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/10

EmailWelcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile maiden contest at the meet, and hopefully will add to the Keeneland Spring and Spa Baby profits.

Sunday’s results:
Race 4 – Burgenland Kid finished fourth
Race 7 – Nownownow finished second

Week 1 recap: Nistle’s Crunch’s $11 place price on Opening Day kept us in the hunt for a profitable meet, but it would be nice to actually isolate a winner for a change (9-0-3, -$1.00)

Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Race 5
1 Mile (Turf)
Allowance (N2L)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $52,000

Analysis: I’M DADDY’S GIRL showed excellent speed at Kentucky Downs, and may try to clear this bunch going into the first turn. There is plenty of class in the pedigree as the dam was a multiple Grade 3 winner (lifetime record of 22-12-5-4, $575,747), and one of I’m Daddy’s Girl’s siblings was stakes-placed on the grass. She will need to break into the race from the also-eligible list, but has improved greatly with Lasix, and should be in the mix from the start if she gets to play.
PURE CLAN was extremely impressive in her career debut at Ellis Park, and looms the filly to beat despite facing winners for the first time. She broke a half a step slowly in her debut, then put in a sustained rush to run right by the lone pacesetter. She was a bit late to change leads, but no one was near her at the wire. A half-sister to Grade 2 winner Greater Good, Pure Clan has lots of potential, and shouldn’t have any problems with this added distance. LITTLE STINGER defeated two next-out winners, and she is also eligible to show improved speed as she stretches out for the first time. Her dam was stakes-placed on the lawn, and it’s very likely that we haven’t seen her best race yet.
MINE OR WHO’s won a key race at Saratoga despite switching back to her wrong lead in midstretch, then never got on track when returned to the dirt. She’s back on her best footing today, and should get a solid pace to attack. Ignore trainer Bill Mott’s turf runners at your own risk. VANCY PANTS shows an upward Beyer pattern, and she tried very hard in winning her maiden at Presque Isle Downs. She draws a comfortable inside post, and has valuable experience at this distance. PRETTY PERSUASION enjoyed a perfect trip to win her debut on turf, but she didn’t have an easy journey when thrown into graded stakes company on polytrack. She should appreciate today’s drop in company.

Selection (turf only):
1. I’m Daddy’s Girl
2. Pure Clan
3. Little Stinger

The play (turf only): I’m Daddy’s Girl to win and place at 4-1; if that one scratches, then Pure Clan to win at 5-2 or more

Race 6
6 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-old fillies
Purse $50,000

1. Talike Me (Military – Talike, by Afternoon Deelites)
Trainer: Thomas Smith
- Foaled February 8, 2005 in Kentucky
- sire was a Grade 1 winner on turf (12-5-1-2, $462,700, unraced at two, all races on grass)
- sire is 27-145 (19%) with juveniles
- dam was a sprint winner (5-2-1-0, $48,290, unraced at two, 2-4 in dirt sprints)
- this is dam’s first runner
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Saddleridge (67-12-8-6, $160,567, 1-5 at two, 3-24 in dirt sprints)
- trainer is 3-62 (5%, $0.42 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile runners
- trainer is 0-8 with Keeneland Babies

2. Phi Slamma Jamma (Stormy Atlantic – Slamma, by Grand Slam)
Trainer: Jamie Sanders
- Foaled March 7, 2005 in Kentucky
- $35,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- withdrawn juvenile (Fasig-Tipton May 2007)
- sire was a multiple stakes-winning sprinter (15-6-2-1, $148,126, 0-1 at two, all races in dirt sprints)
- sire is 123-797 (15%) with juveniles
- dam was a sprint winner in the mud (5-1-0-0, $7,140, unraced at two, 1-4 in dirt sprints)
- this is dam’s first runner
- female family of multiple Grade 1 route winner Colonial Affair (20-7-4-3, $1,635,228, 1-4 at two, 1-3 in dirt sprints)
- trainer is 0-44 over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 0-2 with second-time Spa Babies

3. Gloria Goodbody (Arch – Our Locket, by Mr. Leader)
Trainer: John Glenney
- Foaled February 7, 2005 in Kentucky
- $26,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- half-sister to Grade 3 turf winner Beckon the King (71-15-13-7, $467,170, 0-4 at two, 4-18 in dirt sprints), and stakes-winning juvenile Lock in the Money (46-4-4-4, $81,885, 2-6 at two, 0-9 in dirt sprints)
- sire was a Grade 1 route winner (7-5-1-0, $480,969, 1-1 at two, 2-3 in dirt sprints)
- sire is 10-85 (12%) with juvenile debut runners
- Arch is 1-20 (5%, $0.66 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was route-placed (6-0-0-1, $3,843, unraced at two, 0-3 in dirt sprints, cost $110,000 as a yearling)
- dam has nine runners, eight winners, seven juvenile runners, two winners
- dam a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Seldom Seen Sue (20-7-3-2, $334,150, 1-2 at two, 3-9 in dirt sprints)
- Mr. Leader is 2-18 (11%, $2.11 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 0-13 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-5 with debuting Keeneland Babies
- September 22 workout matches barn’s four-year-old Transduction Gold (won Grade 3 Sycamore Stakes on turf on October 5 with 97 Beyer)

4. Fair Rose (Harlan’s Holiday – Elrose, by Deputy Minister)
Trainer: Ralph Nicks
- Foaled February 12, 2005 in Florida
- $95,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- half-sister to Grade 3 turf winner Super Freaky (13-3-3-2, $313,070, 1-4 at two, 0-2 in dirt sprints)
- first-crop sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (22-9-6-1, $3,632,664, 4-6 at two, 2-3 in dirt sprints)
- sire is 3-32 (9%, $0.79 ROI) with debut runners
- dam was unplaced (6-0-0-0, $9.723, unraced at two, 0-1 in dirt sprints, cost $700,000 as a yearling)
- dam has one runner, one winner, one juvenile runner, one juvenile winner
- dam a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 route winner Silver Charm (22-11-7-2, $4,444,369, 2-3 at two, 3-5 in dirt sprints)
- Deputy Minister is 13-100 (13%, $1.64 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 3-49 (6%, $0.56 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 0-6 with debuting Keeneland Babies
- trainer is 1-12 (8%, $0.30 ROI) with debut runners in 2007
- August 8, September 22 workouts match barn’s juvenile filly Elliday (won turf maiden special weight at Ellis Park on August 26 with 55 Beyer)
- September 11 workout matches barn’s three-year-old filly Campy (64 Beyer top on turf)

5. Miss Triss (Posse – She’s Something, by Affirmed)
Trainer: George Arnold II
- Foaled March 29, 2005 in Kentucky
- $67,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2005)
- $90,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton July 2006)
- $110,000 juvenile (OBS March 2007)
- first-crop sire was a Grade 2 sprint winner (18-7-2-2, $662,841, 2-7 at two, 7-17 in dirt sprints)
- sire is 24-101 (24%) with juvenile runners
- dam was route-placed at two (10-0-1-0, $9,167, 0-3 at two, 0-5 in dirt sprints)
- dam has five runners, three winners, four juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to British stakes-winning turfer Meadow Pipit (8-4-0-1, $41,574, unraced at two, all races on turf), and multiple stakes-placed Coup Fizzles (85-20-10-13, $185,061, 1-3 at two, 16-68 in dirt sprints)
- trainer is 12-53 (23%, $3.27 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs
- trainer is 3-8 (38%, $4.45 ROI) with Keeneland Babies returning from a 31-60 day layoff
- worked one furlong in 10.40, and another furlong in 10.40 prior to the March sale

6. Noon Day (Smoke Glacken – Swift Girl, by Unbridled)
Trainer: George Arnold II
- Foaled March 6, 2005 in Kentucky
- $65,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton July 2006)
- $60,000 juvenile (Keeneland April 2007)
- half-sister to multiple juvenile sprint stakes-winner Quick Little Miss (12-2-2-1, $287,080, 2-8 at two, 2-7 in dirt sprints)
- sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner at two (14-10-2-1, $759,560, 4-6 at two, 9-10 in dirt sprints)
- sire is 133-729 (18%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unplaced (1-0-0-0, unraced at two, unraced in dirt sprints)
- dam has three runners, one winner, three juvenile runners, one juvenile winner
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed turfer Gather the Day (15-7-2-2, $245,908, unraced at two, 7-10 in dirt sprints), and Grade 2 juvenile winner Greater Good (23-6-1-2, $546,720, 3-5 at two, 2-6 in dirt sprints)
- trainer is 8-52 (15%, $2.47 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juvenile runners
- trainer is 1-1 (100%, $6.40 ROI) with second-time Keeneland Babies
- worked a quarter-mile in 22 seconds flat, and another quarter-mile in 21.60 prior to the April sale

7. Rain On the Plain (Sky Mesa – Summertime Showers, by Raise a Native)
Trainer: William Fires
- Foaled April 15, 2005 in Kentucky
- $45,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- half-sister to Grade 2 sprint stakes-winner Regal Thunder (25-5-4-7, $355,481, 0-1 at two, 5-16 in dirt sprints), and multiple juvenile stakes-placed turfer Summer Melody (in France)
- first-crop sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner at two (6-3-1-1, $633,076, 3-3 at two, 2-2 in dirt sprints)
- sire is 4-52 (8%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a juvenile sprint winner (6-1-2-2, $16,300, 1-1 at two, all races in dirt sprints, cost $57,000 as a juvenile)
- dam has seven runners, three winners, four juvenile runners, no juvenile winners
- dam a full sister to juvenile stakes-winning turfer Wonder Dancer (22-3-2-1, $131,031)
- dam a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed Steve’s Champ (25-7-3-4, $97,321, unraced at two, 4-11 in dirt sprints), and Grade 3 turf winner Lindon Lime (29-11-3-1, $667,845, 2-3 at two, all races on turf)
- trainer is 4-40 (10%, $2.64 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles
- trainer is 0-1 with second-time Keeneland Babies

8. Margaret B (Hennessy – Miss City Halo, by Carson City)
Trainer: Mark Hubley
- Foaled March 20, 2005 in Kentucky
- sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner at two (9-4-3-0, $580,400, all races at two, 4-6 in dirt sprints)
- sire is 94-616 (15%) with juvenile runners
- dam was a stakes-winning sprinter (20-3-6-1, $155,930, 1-4 at two, 3-16 in dirt sprints, cost $27,000 as a yearling, and $185,000 as a juvenile)
- dam has two runners, one winner, one juvenile runner, no juvenile winners
- female family of Grade 3-placed Squall Linda (17-3-3-5, $154,727, unraced at two, 3-11 in dirt sprints)
- trainer is 11-61 (18%, $2.59 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile runners
- trainer is 2-7 (29%, $6.94 ROI) with Keeneland Babies

9. Satin Rose (Deputy Commander – Sweet and Low, by Seattle Slew)
Trainer: William Bret Calhoun
- Foaled March 1, 2005 in Kentucky
- $25,000 weanling (Keeneland November 2005)
- $85,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 route winner (13-4-3-2, $1,906,640, unraced at two, 0-2 in dirt sprints)
- sire is 61-561 (11%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unraced
- dam has two runners, no winners, one juvenile runner
- second dam is Grade 1 winner Beautiful Melody (10-4-2-1, $199,050, unraced at two, 1-3 in dirt sprints)
- trainer is 7-15 (47%, $4.32 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles adding blinkers

10. Antepova (Stravinsky – Blue Sage, by Cure the Blues)
Trainer: Derek Galvin
- Foaled March 26, 2005 in Kentucky
- withdrawn weanling (Keeneland November 2005)
- withdrawn yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- half-sister to stakes-winning juvenile Long Gone Blues (35-4-6-4, $109,579, 2-8 at two, 1-2 in dirt sprints)
- sire was a Group 1 winner on turf in England (8-3-1-1, $361,450, 1-3 at two, won debut, 0-1 in dirt sprints)
- sire is 27-235 (11%) with juvenile runners
- dam was unraced
- dam has 10 runners, five winners, six juvenile runners, two juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 turf winner Theatrical (22-10-4-2, $2,940,036, 1-1 at two, all races on turf), and multiple stakes-winner Taiki Blizzard (in Japan, 23-6-8-2, $5,523,549, unraced at two, 1-1 in dirt sprints)
- trainer is 0-3 over the past five years with second-time juveniles

11. Queen of Sparta (Yonaguska – Diamondsnemeralds, by Souvenir Copy)
Trainer: Randy Matthews
- Foaled March 14, 2005 in Kentucky
- $3,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- $39,000 juvenile (OBS June 2007)
- sire was a Grade 1 sprint winner at two (18-6-1-5, $536,355, 3-7 at two, won debut, 6-15 in dirt sprints)
- sire is 6-93 (6%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 10-66 (15%, $1.50 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was unraced
- this is dam’s first runner
- trainer is 0-20 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- worked a bullet three furlongs in 33.20 prior to the June sale

12. Strike Out (Grand Slam – Lost Love, by Lost Code)
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
- Foaled May 18, 2005 in Kentucky
- $125,000 yearling (Keeneland September 2006)
- half-sister to stakes-winner I Love Silver (20-4-5-4, $437,142, 1-3 at two, 3-11 in dirt sprints), Grade 3-placed turf sprinter Chosen Chief (51-9-6-7, $334,889, 0-1 at two, 2-14 in dirt sprints), and multiple stakes-winning router The Max (9-2-4-0, $97,579, unraced at two, 0-1 in dirt sprints)
- sire was a multiple Grade 1 winner at two (15-4-5-2, $971,292, 3-5 at two, won debut, 1-4 in dirt sprints)
- sire is 30-240 (13%) with juvenile debut runners
- sire is 4-58 (7%, $0.66 ROI) with all debut runners in 2007
- dam was a sprint winner at two (31-2-7-6, $95,963, 2-6 at two, 2-25 in dirt sprints, cost $7,000 as a weanling, and $10,000 as yearling)
- dam has six runners, six winners, three juvenile runners, two juvenile winners
- dam a half-sister to Grade 3-placed Over Jack Mountain (18-1-6-4, $99,231, 1-8 at two, 1-5 in dirt sprints), and multiple stakes-placed The Ziggster (50-12-11-7, $133,525, 2-9 at two, 4-24 in dirt sprints)
- Lost Code is 5-58 (9%, $2.60 ROI) as the broodmare sire of debut runners in 2007
- trainer is 16-78 (21%, $1.42 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile debut runners
- trainer is 2-16 (13%, $0.69 ROI) with debuting Keeneland Babies
- trainer is 3-28 (11%, $1.03 ROI) with debut runners in 2007
- October 5 workout came with rider Julien Leparoux aboard (“impressive” according to Keeneland Clocker)

Analysis: TALIKE ME earned competitive numbers in both lifetime starts, and has a licence to improve in the second start following the short layoff. She draws inside, and may need some racing luck from there, but we know what Calvin Borel can do with an inside trip. His mount has some turf pedigree, and we've seen grass horses do well on synthetic surfaces.
GLORIA GOODBODY’s workout on September 22 looks slow, but it matches up with the older Transduction Gold, and that one just captured the Sycamore Stakes for this barn. Her most recent workout - her only published move over this surface - was quick (third-fastest of fifty-two at the distance), and the half-sister to Beckon the King (103 turf Beyer) should offer some value for her debut. ANTEPOVA showed excellent tactical speed in her career debut at Turfway, and she has lots of pedigree appeal. The dam is a half-sister to champion Theatrical, and Antepova is a half-sister to a runner that earned blacktype as a juvenile. MISS TRISS boasts improving numbers and an underrated barn. She gets a solid rider switch to Bejarano, and shouldn’t be too far away when the field swings into the stretch.
STRIKE OUT has impressed the Keeneland clockers in the mornings, and she seems like a quick filly. She figures to be among the early leaders if able to avoid a wide trip from far outside post. NOON DAY finished ahead of a next-out winner when rallying strongly in career debut at Arlington. She should benefit from the experience, and she blew out quickly over the surface on Sunday morning.

Selections:
1. Talike Me
2. Gloria Goodbody
3. Antepova

The play: Talike Me to win and place at 4-1 or more

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager): 9-0-3 (-$1.00)