10/08/2009 11:00PM

Keeneland Babies for 10/10

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Welcome to Keeneland Babies! I'll break down the statistics for every juvenile contest at the meet.  Hopefully, we'll end up with a tidy profit.

Friday's results:
Race 5 - Call Shot finished second
Race 6 - Golden Birdie finished ninth
Race 9 - Tidal Pool finished sixth


Saturday, October 10, 2009

Race 3
7 Furlongs (Polytrack)
Allowance (N2L)
2-year-old fillies
Purse $52,000

Analysis: 
PETITE FUEGO goes out for high-percentage barn after a solid debut score over Arlington's polytrack surface.  She appears to have the tactical speed to work out another nice stalking trip, and a repeat of that first-out Beyer would make her a tough customer.
SWEET LEMON CHELLO went gate-to-wire against Illinois-breds despite suffering from a bleeding incident.  She adds Lasix for her initial start against winners, but may expend too much energy chasing Yes It's Valid for early supremacy. 
MADDIE'S ODYSSEY should be legged up for this seven-furlong event after going two turns against stakes rivals on the grass at Saratoga.  She didn't make much of an impact that day, but appeared to run in spots, and the addition of blinkers may help her focus better on the task at hand.
YES IT'S VALID failed to stave off odds-on winner Greeley's Rocket (the next-out runnerup in the Presque Isle Downs Debutante) two back at Presque Isle Downs, and then was involved in a wicked early duel with a 27-1 longshot in her most recent race over the Tapeta surface.  After putting that pace challenger away, she understandably tired in the final strides, and is capable of improvement with the addition of Lasix.  Expect Robby Albarado to have her on the lead this afternoon. 
ZIPPER ZAPPER ran a nice one in her first start against winners, and she would benefit if Sweet Lemon Chello puts the pace heat on Yes It's Valid in the opening quarter.  The daughter of City Zip seems in good form, and should offer value for low-profile connections.  SING SING CINDRELA scored going six furlongs over the Kentucky Downs turf course, but needs to improve on the Beyer scale to upend these tougher rivals.  L. A. GIRL'S lone win came at the expense of maiden claimers at Churchill Downs, and her two races against winners haven't been very promising.

Selections: 
1.  Petite Fuego  2.  Sweet Lemon Chullo  3.  Maddie's Odyssey

The Play: 
Petite Fuego - Sweet Lemon Chullo Exacta
Petite Fuego - Maddie's Odyssey Exacta

***

Race 4
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Maiden Special Weight
2-year-olds
Purse $50,000

1.  GREYTAP (Tapit - Trickily, by Trempolino)
TRAINER:  D. Wayne Lukas
JOCKEY:  Corey Lanerie
DATE FOALED:   April 23, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   Withdrawn yearling (Keeneland, September 2008); $65,000 RNA juvenile (Fasig-Tipton, February 2009); Out juvenile (Keeneland, April 2009)
SIRE RACE RECORD:  Grade 1 route winner (6-3-0-0, $557,300, 2-2 at two, 3-6 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   4-76 (5%) with juvenile debut runners; 5-47 (11%, $3.00 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (1 juvenile debut winner, 1 older route winner)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Placed on turf (16-0-0-2, $5,613, unraced at two, 0-7 in main track routes, cost $65,000 as yearling and $51,000 as juvenile)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD: 5 runners, 3 winners, 5 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winners, 3 main track route runners, 2 main track route winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  TROPICARO (half-sister, Group 1 winner on turf at two in France)
BROODMARE SIRE INFORMATION:  No debut runners as a broodmare sire in 2009
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-4 over the past five years with juvenile debut runners in maiden special weight routes on synthetic surfaces; 2-36 (6%, $0.70 ROI) with all debut runners in 2009 (1 juvenile winner, both winners with Lasix)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  Worked 1 furlong in 11.2 prior to the February auction; July 29 workout matches barn's four-year-old SARATOGA SEVEN (finished eighth in a $35,000 'n3L' claimer on turf at Saratoga on August 17 with 65 Beyer); September 13, September 20 workouts match barn's juvenile filly RESTLESS SONG (0 Beyer in two starts); September 13 workout matches barn's juvenile ACTIVITY REPORT (82 Beyer top)

2.  READY FOR CHANGE (A.P. Indy - Ajina, by Strawberry Road)
TRAINER:  Kiaran McLaughlin
JOCKEY:  Alan Garcia
DATE FOALED:   May 4, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  MANCHURIAN (half-brother, stakes-winning router, 9-3-2-0, $125,575, unraced at two, 1-6 in main track routes); JINNI (full sister, stakes-placed on turf, 13-3-2-1, $132,210, 1-2 at two, 1-4 in main track routes)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 winner (11-8-0-1, $2,979,815, 3-4 at two, 7-9 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   149-889 (17%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 route winner (17-7-3-2, $1,327,915, 3-4 at two, 6-14 in main track routes)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  4 runners, 3 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 4 main track route runners, 2 main track route winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  ROB'S SPIRIT (half-brother, multiple Grade 3 winner on turf, 14-4-1-2, $249,960, 1-1 at two, all races on turf)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  1-2 (50%, $6.60 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile runners going dirt to synthetic in maiden special weight routes (both races at Keeneland)


3.  MINT CHIP (Johar - Leaning Tower, by Theatrical)
TRAINER:  George Arnold II
JOCKEY:  James Graham
DATE FOALED:   February 13, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  KARELIAN (half-brother, Grade 3 turf winner, 16-8-2-1, $347,548, 1-2 at two, 1-1 in main track routes)
AUCTION:   $72,000 RNA weanling (Keeneland, November 2007)
SIRE RACE RECORD:  Multiple Grade 1 turf winner (16-6-4-2, $1,494,496, unraced at two, 0-1 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:  15-105 (14%) with juvenile runners 
DAM RACE RECORD:   Placed on turf (4-0-0-1, $10,440, unraced at two, unraced in main track routes, cost $175,000 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD: 5 runners, 3 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winners, 3 main track route runners, 3 main track route winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  GRAN NIJINSKY (half-brother, stakes-placed in Panama); BASQUEIAN (half-brother, Grade 3 winner, 37-13-10-2, $1,056,289, 1-8 at two, 9-19 in main track routes); REGAL HALO (half-sister, stakes-winning sprinter at two, 11-3-2-0, $110,474, 2-7 at two, 0-1 in main track routes); SIR EBOINY KNIGHT (half-brother, stakes-winner at two, 113-9-14-14, $197,521, 2-5 at two, 2-15 in main track routes)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-1 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going turf to synthetic in maiden special weight route

4. CRYSTAL MOMENT (Distorted Humor - Crystal Music, by Nureyev)
TRAINER:  William Mott
JOCKEY:  Kent Desormeaux
DATE FOALED:   February 6, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  CRYSTANY (half-sister, multiple stakes-placed on turf in England, 14-1-2-1, $54,217, 1-4 at two, unraced in main track routes)
AUCTION:   $1,200,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:  Multiple Grade 2 winner (23-8-5-3, $769,964, unraced at two, 1-10 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   124-722 (17%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD:   Group 1 winner on turf at two in Ireland (9-3-2-0, $367,336, 3-3 at two, all races on turf)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  2 runners, 1 winner, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 0 main track route runners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  STATE CRYSTAL (half-sister, Group 3 winner on turf in England); SOLAR CRYSTAL (half-sister, Group 3 winner on turf at two in England); TCHAIKOVSKY (half-brother, Group 1-placed on turf in Ireland); DUBAI SUCCESS (half-brother, Group 3 winner on turf in England);
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-1 over the past five years with juvenile runners going turf to synthetic off 31-60 day layoffs in maiden special weight route (Keeneland, 2008)

5.  BIGSHOT (Limehouse - Regal Snicker, by Regal Classic)
TRAINER:  Kenneth McPeek
JOCKEY:  Robby Albarado
DATE FOALED:   February 26, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Florida
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  REGAL OFFICER (half-brother, stakes-placed at two, 62-2-6-7, $177,008, 0-11 at two, 2-19 in main track routes); SERIOUS VOW (stakes-placed router, 8-1-1-3, $59,060, 1-6 in main track routes)
AUCTION:   $57,000 weanling (OBS Fall, October 2007); $180,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:  Multiple Grade 2 winner (21-7-2-3, $1,110,433, 3-6 at two, 3-12 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   11-76 (14%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD:   Stakes-placed router (9-2-1-0, $91,542, unraced at two, 2-7 in main track routes)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  3 runners, 2 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winners, 2 main track route runners, 2 main track route winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  STAR CUTTER (half-brother, Group 2 winner on turf in Italy)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  1-3 (33%, $1.93 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile runners going turf to synthetic off 31-60 day layoff in maiden special weight route (0-2 at Keeneland)

6. CAPTAIN STONE (Sky Mesa - Thunder Warmth, by Thunder Gulch)
TRAINER:  George Arnold II
JOCKEY:  Rajiv Maragh
DATE FOALED:   March 7, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $2,500 weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); $4,000 RNA yearling (Fasig-Tipton, October 2008); $100,000 juvenile (OBS Spring, April 2009); Withdrawn juvenile (Fasig-Tipton Spring, May 2009)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 sprint winner at two (6-3-1-1, $633,076, 3-3 at two, 1-4 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   45-271 (17%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD:   Unplaced (3-0-0-0, $344, unraced at two, 0-1 in main track routes, cost $130,000 as weanling, $230,000 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:   3 runners, 0 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 1 main track route runner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  SO COZY (half-sister, stakes-winner at two, 4-2-0-0, $32,262); SPECIAL POWER (half-sister, stakes-winning sprinter, 34-12-7-3, $173,844, 3-8 at two, 0-1 in main track routes, 2-6 in wet); WEZZO (half-sister, stakes-placed on turf at two in France)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  1-5 (20%, $1.35 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs, going dirt to synthetic, and sprint to route in maiden special weight (0-1 at Keeneland)
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  Worked 1 furlong in 9.4 prior to the April auction

7.  LET'S DO IT (El Prado - Nephele, by Deputy Commander)
TRAINER:  H. Graham Motion
JOCKEY:  Joe Bravo
DATE FOALED:   May 5, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $40,000 RNA yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Group 1 winner on turf in Ireland at two (9-4-1-0, $236,987, 4-6 at two, unraced in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   138-919 (15%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD:  Sprint winner at two (5-1-0-0, $14,130, all races sprinting on the main track at two, cost $85,000 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  2 runners, 1 winner, 2 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winners, 1 main track route runner, 1 main track route winner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  CLASSIC OLYMPIO (half-sister, multiple stakes-winning sprinter, 19-6-5-3, $336,578, 3-6 at two, 0-1 in main track routes); MR. FELIPE (half-brother, stakes-winning sprinter at two, 3-2-0-1, $56,350, all races sprinting on the main track at two); DEWEY'S TRICK (half-sister, multiple stakes-placed, 20-4-4-3, $180,980, unraced at two, unraced in main track routes);
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-1 over the past five years with juvenile runners adding blinkers for the first time while going turf to synthetic

8.  BEST ACTOR (Rock Hard Ten - Dance for Dixie, by Unaccounted For)
TRAINER:  Wayne Catalano
JOCKEY:  Tyler Baze
DATE FOALED:   February 18, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  SUMMER DOLDRUMS (half-brother, Grade 3 turf winner, 22-6-2-3, $928,159, 1-4 at two, 5-11 in main track routes)
AUCTION:   $230,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 winner (11-7-1-1, $1,870,380, unraced at two, 5-9 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   3-33 (9%) with juvenile runners (first crop)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Stakes-placed at two (21-5-2-4, $192,051, 2-6 at two, 1-6 in main track routes, cost $22,000 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  2 runners, 1 winner, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 1 main track route runner, 1 main track route winner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  CIELO GIRL (half-sister, multiple stakes-winner, 31-11-5-4, $337,260, 0-3 at two, 3-6 in main track routes)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  7-21 (33%, $2.75 ROI) over the past five years with second-time juveniles over synthetic surfaces (1-1, 100%, $10.40 ROI at Keeneland)

9.  DUAL FORECAST (Woke Up Dreamin - Sniffy, by Repriced)
TRAINER:  Ian Wilkes
JOCKEY:  Frederic Lenclud
DATE FOALED:   January 25, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $16,000 weanling (OBS Fall, October 2007); $42,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Summer, July 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 2 sprint winner (16-6-1-3, $578,475, 1-4 at two, 1-3 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   5-46 (11%) with juvenile runners (first crop)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Multiple stakes-placed (48-14-5-8, $247,570, 2-4 at two, 3-8 in main track routes)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  3 runners, 2 winners, 3 juvenile runners, 0 juvenile winners, 3 main track route runners, 2 main track route winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  Second dam is Millys Sister (stakes-winner at two, 8-2-2-0, $36,772, all races at two, 1-2 in main track routes)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  1-4 (25%, $1.20 ROI) over the past five years with juveniles returning from 31-60 day layoffs in maiden special weight synthetic routes

10.  COFFEE BREAK (A. P. Indy - Java, by Rainbow Quest)
TRAINER:  Neil Howard
JOCKEY:  Jamie Theriot
DATE FOALED:   April 16, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  COFFEE BAR (half-brother, stakes-placed, 10-1-3-3, $103,949, 1-3 at two, 1-3 in main track routes)
AUCTION:   $200,000 yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:  Multiple Grade 1 winner (11-8-0-1, $2,979,815, 3-4 at two, 7-9 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:  149-889 (17%) with juvenile runners  
DAM RACE RECORD:   Turf winner (7-2-1-2, $73,174, unraced at two, all races on turf)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  3 runners, 2 winners, 2 juvenile runners, 1 juvenile winner, 1 main track route runner, 1 main track route winner
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  FIJI (full sister, multiple Grade 1 turf winner, 12-8-1-2, $894,482, 1-1 at two, all races on turf); CAPRI (half-brother, Group 2 winner on turf in France)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-3 over the past five years with second-time juveniles going sprint to route and dirt to synthetic in maiden special weight

11.  KING KITTEN (Kitten's Joy - Santo Mio, by Southern Halo)
TRAINER:  Wesley Ward
JOCKEY:  Julien Leparoux
DATE FOALED:   April 1, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
BLACKTYPE SIBLINGS:  LUCKY HALO (half-brother, Grade 3 winner in Panama, 9-4-2-1, $21,655, 1-4 at two, 2-3 in main track routes)
AUCTION:   Withdrawn yearling (Keeneland, September 2008)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Multiple Grade 1 turf winner (14-9-4-0, $2,075,791, 2-4 at two, 0-1 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   14-79 (18%) with juvenile runners (first crop)
DAM RACE RECORD:   Sprint winner (19-2-3-3, $94,020, 0-3 at two, 0-4 in main track routes cost $40,000 as yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  6 runners, 5 winners, 5 juvenile runners, 2 juvenile winners, 5 main track route runners, 4 main track route winners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  Female family of multiple Grade 2 turf winner SHARROOD
TRAINER INFORMATION:  1-2 (50%, $1.80 ROI) over the past five years with juvenile runners going turf to synthetic (1-1, 100%, $3.60 ROI at Keeneland)

12. MESA VISTA (Sky Mesa - Gata Secreta, by Spinning World)
TRAINER:  D. Wayne Lukas
JOCKEY:  Terry Thompson
DATE FOALED:   February 2, 2007
STATE FOALED:   Kentucky
AUCTION:   $110,000 weanling (Keeneland, November 2007); $200,000 yearling (Fasig-Tipton Select, August 2008); $500,000 juvenile (Fasig-Tipton, February 2009)
SIRE RACE RECORD:   Grade 1 sprint winner at two (6-3-1-1, $633,076, 3-3 at two, 1-4 in main track routes)
SIRE PRODUCE RECORD:   45-271 (17%) with juvenile runners
DAM RACE RECORD:   Unplaced (3-0-0-0, $0, unraced at two, unraced in main track routes, $25,000 yearling)
DAM PRODUCE RECORD:  2 runners, 0 winners, 1 juvenile runner, 0 main track route runners
DAM SIBLING INFORMATION:  DUBLEO (half-brother, Grade 2 winner at two, 13-7-1-1, 6-9 at two, $422,134, 6-9 at two, unraced in main track routes)
TRAINER INFORMATION:  0-2 over the past five years with juveniles going turf to synthetic off 31-60 day layoff
NOTABLE WORKOUT INFORMATION:  Worked 2 furlongs in 22.0 prior to the February auction

Analysis:
CRYSTAL MOMENT, a $1.2M yearling purchase trained by Bill Mott, exits a solid maiden heat at Saratoga.  The runnerup that day, Eskendereya, returned to win the off-the-turf Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure while the eighth-placed finisher ran away and hid from New York-breds with an 80.  Crystal Moment has tactical speed, and shouldn't be too far off the pace under Kent Desormeaux.
BIGSHOT can certainly win this race.  He rallied widest during the stretch drive going this trip on Saratoga sod, and was simply outgamed by Becky's Kitten, a colt that returned to run second in the Grade 3 Summer Stakes at Woodbine.  Bigshot finished directly ahead of Vamos a Ver, a runner that returned to graduate over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs.  Expect a strong late move.
LET'S DO IT rallied from far off the pace at this distance on grass at Laurel, but seemed to lose his focus a bit while drifting in the stretch.  The addition of blinkers may straighten him out, and this barn should always be respected. 
KING KITTEN pressed the pace in his first start at this distance before fading a bit in the stretch.  The winner of that heat will try his luck against the big fish in the Breeders' Futurity later this afternoon.  King Kitten may work out a good stalking trip while clear of traffic trouble.
READY FOR CHANGE is bred for the nines, but has yet to finish ahead of a horse in two lifetime starts.  Expect Alan Garcia to hustle this colt out of the gate in the hope of establishing an easy early lead.  It's too early to give up on him, right?  CAPTAIN STONE bled in his only previous start on polytrack, but he improved last time out when able to dictate slow fractions going seven furlongs at Saratoga.  It seems like he's figuring the game out, but may have to try different tactics here.  MESA VISTA makes the third start of the form cycle for Mr. Lukas, but is mired in a tough outside post position.  Terry Thompson must avoid a wide trip aboard this $500,000 purchase.  BEST ACTOR rallied powerfully in his career debut as the chalk at Arlington Park, and the feeling is that the son of Rock Hard Ten should improve as the distances increase.  He's not out of this for powerful barn, and the Keeneland clocker noted that he gave a "very strong finish last three furlongs in 34 2/5" for the October 4 workout.  MINT CHIP didn't have the easiest of trips in career debut on Arlington's turf course, and has the look of an interesting longshot switching to polytrack for the capable Rusty Arnold.  DUAL FORECAST must improve off his most recent effort, a dull try going a one-turn mile at Arlington.  COFFEE BREAK is bred to do some running, but he was dismissed at 37-1 sprinting on the Delaware dirt course, and never made an impact.  GREYTAP is bred to appreciate this distance, but going a two-turn route is usually a difficult task for a debut runner, and the workouts fail to excite.

Selections: 
1.  Crystal Moment  2.  Bigshot  3.  Let's Do It

The Play:
Crystal Moment to Win at 2-1 odds or greater


***

Race 8
1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack)
Dixiana Breeders' Futurity (Grade 1)
2-year-olds
Purse $500,000

Analysis:
A total crapshoot on paper so I'll try to find an interesting longshot.  NOBLE'S PROMISE may be distance challenged as he's by sprint sire Cuvee out of a Clever Trick mare, but he's done little wrong in his short career for trainer Ken McPeek.  In his debut during the spring meet, he was second-best to a well-regarded Todd Pletcher-trained firster, and he hasn't tasted defeat since, winning on both turf and Tapeta.  He ran down the multiple stakes-winner Grand Slam Andre last time out at Presque Isle Downs, and may work out a good stalking trip while in the second flight. 
AIKENITE ran down a promising juvenile named Gun Rock to win his debut for Pletcher at Saratoga, and then gained valuable experience when breaking slowly and passing rivals late in the Grade 1 Hopeful.  His sire, Yes It's True, gets mainly sprinters, however, and Aikenite doesn't have any synthetic form.
BACKTALK is extremely professional.  He overcame traffic trouble to win the Grade 3 Bashford Manor at Churchill Downs in May, and then refused to lose when involved in a gutbusting stretch drive in the Grade 2 Sanford.  He failed to finish with Aikenite after breaking from the far outside post in the Hopeful, but there is a ton of pace to adequately setup his late kick here.  If he handles the polytrack, he can be dangerous, and according to the Keeneland clocker report, he is working very well over the surface.  "Very good effort, reserved 3-4 lengths behind Sir Bentley and Sugar Forest, responded when asked and was well clear of those two at the wire," trumpeted the clocker after Backtalk's work on October 5.
STATELY VICTOR didn't have an easy trip in his career debut on dirt, but the beautifully-bred son of Ghostzapper ran away and hid from his maiden opposition in a grassy special weight at the Spa.  He draws a tough outside post position, but has the right running style for this race, and the distance won't pose a problem.
ROMAN INVASION ran away and hid from weaker maidens at Delaware Park for juvenile guru Kelly Breen, but he went gate-to-wire that afternoon, and may have to prove his mettle from off-the-pace in this spot.  He's wheeling back in only twelve days, and has yet to race on a synthetic surface.  DIXIE BAND is undefeated, and draws the cozy rail post for his first excursion around two turns.  He handled Arlington's polytrack very nicely, but the final time of his Arlington-Washington Futurity was slow (1:39 2/5 as compared to 1:38 3/5 for the fillies in the Lassie that same afternoon).  CALLIDE VALLEY was used up pressing the pace in his career debut, but he found himself when taken off the early leaders in his subsequent Saratoga outing.  He shows a sharp workout over Belmont's main track for this race, but is another that must show he can respond on polytrack.  Nicely-bred RAGING WIT beat up on maidens in his career debut at Turfway Park, but is mired on the also-eligible list, and this would be asking a lot for a second-time starter stretching out 2 1/2 furlongs.  SOUNDMAN may be the speed of the speed, but he's likely to face a good amount of pressure, and he hasn't gained ground from the stretch call to the wire in his last four races.  MAKE MUSIC FOR ME is still a maiden, but he came close to Lookin At Lucky, the leading two-year-old in the country, on two occasions in Southern California.  A strong pace would work to this colt's advantage.  PISCITELLI finished behind Dixie Band in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, but is certainly bred to appreciate the added distance.  HURRICANE IKE raced wide in his two graded efforts at Del Mar, but finished behind Make Music for Me on both occasions.  WILDCAT NATION ran to his $400,000 price tag when graduating at Saratoga, but is stretching out over three furlongs for his first start against winners, and first race over polytrack.  LOOKS PURRFECT seems to be moving forward for Steve Asmussen, but faces his toughest test to date.  NO SHENANIGANS rode a slow pace en route to a gate-to-wire maiden win at Monmouth in the slop.  The pace should be faster here.  HOCKLEY worked "nicely under rider control" for his final tuneup, according to the Keeneland clocker report.  He's still a maiden, but has kept good company.

Selections: 
1.  Noble's Promise  2.  Aikenite  3.  Backtalk

The Play: 
Noble's Promise to Win and Place at 8-1 odds or greater

***

Meet record based on starts, wins, top pick (after scratches) in the money, and profit/loss of that day's play ($2 wager): 3-0-1 (- $6.00)