Updated on 09/15/2011 1:09PM

Keeneland analysis for 10/05

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Best Bet: Gold Bar Lady (3rd)

First Race

1. ACTION WEST 2. YUKI NO PRINCESS 3. NAROPA

ACTION WEST has some tactical speed, and may show more of it with blinkers on for Diane Perkins, who has won with three of her last 13 runners making that equipment change, with a $3.22 ROI. She's in good form now, and will be the one to beat with an alert beginning. YUKI NO PRINCESS finished second in each of her first two races, and has enough early foot to get a good trip in her first start at this track. Trouble is NAROPA's middle name. An uneventful trip would make her formidable, but she may need this start after the time off.

Second Race

1. FLIGHT 2. CAHUENGA 3. ELEGANT PERFORMER

FLIGHT bore out at the start, but still ran well when he finished a contending third at Ellis in his debut. He should improve with experience, and with a better break. His pace-stalking style is a good fit for the way seven furlong races are most often won at this track. CAHUENGA settled for third at odds of 5-2 or lower in all three starts. The shorter trip may help. ELEGANT PERFORMER broke slowly, raced wide, and finished a well-beaten fourth at Saratoga first time out. A subsequent :59 breeze, fastest of 37 at the distance, is encouraging.

Third Race

1. GOLD BAR LADY 2. GHOST QUEEN 3. DANCE DANCE

GOLD BAR LADY graduated at first asking in a highly-rated race at Ellis, and will be tough right back in her first battle with winners. GHOST QUEEN finished third in the Ellis Debutante on August 18, then regressed and checked in fourth as the 11-10 choice on the drop into an allowance race. I'll try to beat her at ordinary odds. DANCE DANCE only beat $30,000 maiden claimers by 1 1/2 lengths, but there was an 11 length margin between the second and third finishers. She has trained well since that effort. The Bet: $40 win on Gold Bar Lady.

Fourth Race

1. TEXAS GLITTER 2. GRANGERVILLE 3. MORLUC TEXAS GLITTER was overmatched in the Grade 1 Forego, and should be forgiven for his off-the-board finish. He rated kindly while just off the pace in third in his last win, a style that fits the winning profile for this distance on the turf. Tab him to improve in his second start after the time off, and as he drops in class. GRANGERVILLE has been remarkably consistent with a 9-5-2-2 record this year, and shows a series of fast drills since being freshened. MORLUC is a tiger when he's on his game, but disappointed in his last two starts. He won't offer value as he tries to rebound here.

Fifth Race

1. STEVI'S SONG 2. SQUIRE BOONE 3. GOVERNOR HICKEL

No, his name had no influence on my picking him on top. STEVI'S SONG raced five wide, and finished third behind a dominant winner in a highly-rated allowance race at Turfway. The drop back into the maiden ranks gives him the edge on this group. SQUIRE BOONE is on the upswing, and adds Lasix for his third career start. However, Barnett shows only 13 percent winners and a low $1.19 ROI with a sample of 64 runners on that medication change. GOVERNOR HICKEL ran well in New York, but will be fighting the track bias if he tries closing tactics over this strip.

Sixth Race

1. PLAYING 'N GOLD 2. SMOKE'N FROLIC 3. NEVER OUT

PLAYING 'N GOLD is a proven commodity on class, and around two turns. That gives her the advantage over this field since all of her opponents fall short in one, or in both of those categories. SMOKE'N FROLIC was no match for Cashier's Dream in the Spinaway, but still finished five lengths clear of Magic Storm. Her running style suggests that she might be able to handle the added distance. NEVER OUT is a perfect two-for-two, and just romped by more than 10 lengths over allowance N1X rivals. The concern is that she might be vulnerable on the class jump, and with the distance switch.

eventh Race

1. SWEPT CLEAN 2. WENDOVER 3. WILD ROCKET

SWEPT CLEAN graduated in a fast maiden race at Del Mar, and is capable of improving in the second start of his form cycle. He'll be hard to deny at short odds. WENDOVER didn't run his race last time in his first race on the grass. His best main track form would give him a chance to participate in the exotics at a square price. WILD ROCKET will be in the thick of contention if he isn't rusty in his first start since February.

Eighth Race

1. VEIL OF AVALON 2. TOUT CHARMANT 3. SPOOK EXPRESS

VEIL OF AVALON tends to drop far out of contention early, but should be within easy striking distance turning for home. She bounced in her second U.S. start when she lost over this lawn in April, but is sharp now and should be much more effective this time. TOUT CHARMANT needed her Sept. 1 comeback race at Del Mar, and can win this race by daylight with a return to top form. Nevertheless, the idea of taking small odds on a mare who only defeated one opponent in a six horse field last time out is unappealing. SPOOK EXPRESS is a steady runner who can nibble at purse money here. The Bet: $40 win on Veil of Avalon.

Ninth Race

1. DIAMOND BRACELET 2. NATURALLY WILD 3. LITTLERIVERQUEEN

In a race that figures to be wide open, I'll lean towards DIAMOND BRACELET, who fits on class, condition, and has the right running style for this course. NATURALLY WILD scored with speed to spare at Kentucky Downs, and won't have to improve much to post the mild upset in her second race after the freshening. LITTLERIVERQUEEN is a deep closer who probably won't offer enough betting value to compensate for the likelihood that she'll suffer through a wide trip, andor traffic trouble.

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