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Jerardi: Breeders' Cup Juvenile continues as key race
By Dick Jerardi
Here is some advice for you all you future-book fanciers. Stop being so infatuated with “all others” and start looking at all those horses that ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
So far in 2012, six off them have won eight stakes – the Fountain of Youth (Union Rags), Gotham (Hansen), San Felipe (Creative Cause), San Vicente (Drill), Tampa Bay Derby and Pasco (both Prospective), and Count Fleet and Withers (both Alpha). Those six also accounted for seconds in the Holy Bull (Hansen), Withers (Speightscity), and Sam Davis (Prospective). A seventh Juvenile participant (Dullahan) was second in the Palm Beach. Creative Cause was third in the San Vicente.
These horses finished first (Hansen), second (Union Rags), third (Creative Cause), fourth (Dullahan), ninth (Speightscity), 10th (Drill), 11th (Alpha), and 13th (Prospective) in the Juvenile.
This is a seriously key race.
By the way, Take Charge Indy, who was fifth in the Juvenile, finished second in his only 2012 start, an optional claimer at Gulfstream Park. The winner was El Padrino, who came right back to win the Risen Star Stakes.
So, just about everything is running from the Juvenile.
Crusade (sixth) and Daddy Long Legs (12th) have not started this year. They are trained by00 Aidan O’Brien. Fort Loudon (seventh) was fourth in the Holy Bull and fifth in the Fountain of Youth. Optimizer (eighth) has not been much of a factor in three subsequent races.
So why is this Juvenile so strong when so many others have been so weak the following year? Don’t have that answer, but the facts are the facts, so I suggest we all adjust.
I have never been much for historical trends. I actually know people who did not put any No. 1 or No. 2 seeds into this year’s Final Four because none made it last year. Were any of these No. 1 or No. 2 seeds, with the same rosters, in last year’s tournament? No. So why should anybody care about what went down last year.
I don’t know about you, but I could not possibly fill out a bracket without any of Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, Michigan State, Missouri, Kansas, Duke, or Ohio State. Well, maybe Duke, but you get the idea.
So why would you think this Derby is going to be won by a horse other than the Juvenile Seven.
Wasn’t it just six years ago when Barbaro could not win the Derby because he hadn’t raced in five weeks? How silly does that seem now?
Or Street Sense could not win in 2007 because he won the Juvenile? Really?
As we close in on the final Derby preps, I would suggest we all ignore the extraneous nonsense. Just watch the races. Listen to the trainers and jockeys. Watch the races again. Think for yourself. Watch the races again. See how the horses have developed race to race. Watch the races again. Form opinions, but don’t make any conclusions until Derby Week.
Anybody who watched Smarty Jones (2004), Barbaro (2006), or Street Sense (2007) during Derby Week or listened those who did watch had some priceless information that may have confirmed what they already knew or given them insight they did not have.
So far, Creative Cause (102), Secret Circle (102), Bodemeister (101), Scatman (101), and El Padrino (100) have the Best Beyer Speed Figures among the logical contenders. I thought Union Rags was the most visually impressive in his Fountain of Youth. I was most surprised by Hansen’s win in the Gotham. Not surprised by the win, but how the colt won. Did not know if Hansen could sit and go. He did and did it like the good horse he was when he won the Juvenile.
This is starting to look like a very solid and, most importantly, a very consistent group of Kentucky Derby contenders.
We have Juvenile graduate contenders training in south Florida (Union Rags, Dullahan, Take Charge Indy, Prospective, and Alpha), Kentucky (Hansen), and Southern California (Creative Cause). In less than a month, all or most of them will be congregating in Kentucky for the Final Twenty.
Could a horse that did not start in the Juvenile win the Derby? Obviously.
But seven weeks out, the Juvenile really looks the place to be. When I am done typing here, I am going to watch the Juvenile tape for about the 1,000th time. When you single Union Rags in the pick six and would have ended up with five if he had gotten up, you tend to replay the race.
I will never forget the morning after the Juvenile when Michael Matz showed me a picture of Hansen and Union Rags at the wire. In that photo, Union Rags was in front. Either it was the angle or the photo was taken just after the wire. Every time I watch that tape, Hansen holds on. But there are clues on that tape that could very well be relevant on the first Saturday in May. Watch that tape and all the horses in it.
Egypt Rd. - I hope you are more careful in your handicapping than you are in your reading. As Mr. Jerardi stated in the article, it was Daddy Long Legs, not Daddy Nose Best, who has not started this year and is, indeed, trained by Aidan O'Brien.
Wait a minute. Daddy Nose Best has not started this year? Who did I watch win the El Camino Real Derby on Feb 18 2012? Daddy Nose Best. He did have a start this year. He is trained by Asmussen, not Aiden O'Brien. Wow...
BECAUSE OF MY WIFE LIKING HANSEN SO MUCH , THANKS TO HER - I BET $2,000 TO WIN ON ( HANSEN ) IN LAST YEARS JUVENILE . MY WIFE AND I WENT UP TO THE BETTING WINDOW TO CASH IN OUR WINNING TICKET OF $16,200 . . . THE MOST I HAVE EVER BET ON A HORSE , AND HONESTLY , THE MOST I HAD EVER WON - WELL THANKS TO MY WIFE THAT IS ! MY WIFE SAID THAT WE ARE GOING TO TAKE THAT WINNINGS AND PUT IT IN THE BANK , AND IF BY CHANCE ( HANSEN ) RUNS IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY - WE WILL SPLIT IT UP AND WAGER EVENLY ACROSS THE BOARD ( W - P - S ) ON ( HANSEN ) ......................... SO THANK GOD THUS FAR HANSEN IS STILL LOOKING BRIGHT ! MY WIFE SAID THAT WE REALLY HAVE NOTHING TO LOSE - BUT MY ORIGINAL $2,000 THAT I BET TO WIN LAST YEAR IN THE JUVENILE . MY CREATIVE CAUSE IS LOOKING AWESOME TOO . . . BUT ALWAYS LISTEN TO YOUR WIFE - A GOOD WIFE THAT IS : SHE WILL TAKE YA PLACES YOU HAVE NEVER BEEN . TRUE , HUH LADIES ! KEEPING MY FINGERS CROSSED ! I AM NERVOUS , BUT ITS SOMETHING THAT WE NEVER HAD BEFORE THE JUVENILE RACE , SO IF BY CHANCE HANSEN DOES NOT RUN WELL IN THE DERBY , THIS HAS BEEN A THRILL
Y E S - Y E S - Y E S , THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THIS ARTICLE ! HOW SO TRUE . YOU COULD HAVE NOT SAID THE TRUTH ANY BETTER . I HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS EVER-SINCE THEY CROSSED THE FINISH LINE LAST YEAR . I WAS HOPING AND PRAYING THAT THIS WOULD FINALLY BE A YEAR WHERE THE ( BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE RACE ) REALLY MEANT SOMETHING TO US RACING FANS FOR THE KENTUCKY DERBY . I UNDERSTAND THAT SET-BACKS CAN STILL TAKE PLACE , AND MESS IT ALL UP AGAIN , BUT THE WAY OUR GOOD LORD WILLING HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE AND SHAPING UP , ( I CAN NOT WAIT ) WHAT A FABULOUS ( PART 2 SHOWDOWN ) EVERYONE IS IN FOR . I AM STILL HOLDING ONTO MY WINNINGS FROM LAST YEARS JUVENILE RACE WHERE I HAD PUT $2,000 TO WIN ON . I WAS IN TEARS AFTER THAT RACE . I WAS IN PURE SHOCK THAT I HAS ACTUALLY WON . WHEN MY WIFE LOOKED AT HANSEN DURING THE POST PARADE AND SAID - THAT IS THE MOST BEAUTIFUL HORSE I HAVE EVER SEEN , THE LOOK IN MY WIFES EYE - I WILL NEVER FORGET IT : THAT WAS WHEN I DECIDED TO GO WITH MY WIFES LIKINGS . I WAS GOING TO WAGER MY MONEY ON CREATIVE CAUSE , BUT MY WIFE REALLY CAPTURED MY HEART . AND NOW , THINGS ARE LOOKING BRIGHT ( P U R E W H I T E ) LIKE AN ANGEL LOOKING DOWN ON RACING
These are the facts but I wouldnt recommend using only racers from the previous juvenile in the trifecta,because handicapping is not that easy.That said since there are so many from the juvenile still on the trail boxing all the participants from the juvenile in an exacta is more probable,off course the payoffs are going to be relatively low for a 20 horse field.
But Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause were walking home in the BC Juvenile...6.8+ for a 1/16 or 27+ for quarter. Hansen repeated the 6.8 in the Gotham, admittedly UR and CC did better about 6.4 in FoY and San Felipe respectively. My computer has them all running at 28+ for a quarter at the wire on Derby Day...you can't win running that slow. I've got no one running slower than 27 in the last 7 runnings. Maybe one of these three is going to win the derby in 204+. I'm betting somebody somewhere will come along who can carry their speed farther.
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