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Here's my race-by-race rundown of Sunday's pick four at Woodbine on Oct. 14, 2012. I'm building my wager with TicketMaker, found exclusively on DRF.com. I'm betting in increments of $0.50, and my budget is $100.
Race 8 (E.P. Taylor Stakes)
SIYOUMA (#3) has held her own versus some of Europe’s top gals. DREAM PEACE (#5) was a superb 3rd in this last year and her two New York starts this summer show she may be even better this year. BAREFOOT LADY (#4) looked good winning the G2 Canadian here. This spot is tougher, but she may be up to the challenge. PAGERA (#2) comes off a strong German G3 win and may be peaking. HAVANT (#13) came back after 14 months with two strong French races which set her up well for this.
Race 9 (Allowance Race)
CLEAN HOUSE (#9) has been knocking on the door (three straight 2nds) and looks ready to bust through. LAUGH TRACK (#6) was a nice 3rd on turf but may be better on this footing. JUSTIN’S TAPIT (#8) gave ‘TRACK fits on this main track Aug. 29. He may be a maiden facing winners but has talent and fits. BEAR’S TENOR (#11) blasted softer in his last 2 and may be a new horse.
Race 10 (Pattison Canadian International Stakes)
Some big Euros come here and appear to hold the aces. IMPERIAL MONARCH (#10) is one of O’Brien’s elite 3yos having won 3 of 4 including the G1 Grand Prix de Paris, and he could easily have been tossed into the Arc. JOSHUA TREE (#8) was 2nd in this last year and was just a close 3rd to the Arc runner-up, Japanese beast Orfevre. RELIABLE MAN (#7) was France’s top 3yo male in 2011 and he may be coming back to that form.
Race 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
DBL BARREL RESERVE (#11) fizzled as the choice Sept. 16 but that was routing. He’s back to the game (sprinting) he may prefer. BARBASGO (#7) keeps getting closer and appears on the verge of finally breaking through after so many chances (13). STORMY CONNECTION (#8) finished full of run in his second start and may be ready to turn the corner.
My wagers
With TicketMaker I'm able to put greater emphasis on my "A" selections while still having coverage with my "B" and "C" picks just in case. This allows me to maximize my budget for this pick four, and I come out $9 under budget.
Best Bets
Runner-up in the Santa Anita Oaks, IOTAPA drops in class and shortens to a sprint with sharp recent works on the BHP surface. Oaks winner Beholder returned to finish second in the Kentucky Oaks; Oaks third Fiftyshadesofhay was one of the favorites Friday in the Black Eyed Susan at Pimlico. The point is, IOTAPA faced a good bunch last out. She specifically targeted this race, gets pace to run at, loves the track, and can mow them down as the favorite. She must catch two good front-runners.
