01/06/2012 1:07PM

How to bet Saturday's Count Fleet Stakes $250K Guaranteed Aqueduct Pick 4


Here's my race-by-race rundown of Saturday's Guaranteed $250K Pick 4 at Aqueduct. I'm building my wager with TicketMaker, found exclusively on DRF.com.

Race 6: Claiming ($7,500)

GOOD PROSPECT may be long in the tooth (he’s an 8yo) and not what he once was but he’s still got enough oomph to be scary here. He dueled and ran third vs. much tougher Dec. 10 and so long as the drop isn’t a sign he’s gone the wrong way he figures tough. TROPONIN posted a string of good efforts before giving way badly here Dec. 18. That came for twice this tag so the return to this level helps. COPPER FOREST is interesting as he was posting nice Beyers in Illinois and the only other time he ran here, last March, he romped. REVELATOR takes a big drop off the claim for a high-percentage barn. ALMIGHTY SILVER perked up some in his last 2 on the big track. Servis saw fit to claim him and is amazing first off a claim (7 for last 16, 44 percent). This runner loves it here, too (4 of his 6 wins).

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Race 7: Busanda Stakes ($100,000)

CAPTIVATING LASS had a tough time of it in the Grade 2 Demoiselle as she had trouble and never got involved. It's nice, though, trainer McLaughlin still picks a spot like this and he adds Lasix and blinkers. That bullet :47.80 move at Belmont Jan. 2 says she’s doing well. SWEET SEVENTEEN won her first 2 starts nicely but then blew the start in a stakes at Woodbine. To her credit she ran on nicely to get second so she appears the real deal. It's noteworthy Dominguez takes the call. BOURBONSTREETGIRL beat the top pick when third in the Demoiselle. That was her first dirt start so maybe this is the surface she wants. She’s worked strongly since.

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Race 8: Count Fleet Stakes ($150,000)

ALPHA threw a behind the gate in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile and then didn't run a step. His big maiden win and Grade 1 Champagne second show his quality, though. However, if the Breeders' Cup either took too much out of him or is a sign he’s gone the wrong way, HOW DO I WIN could upset. He laughed at maidens by 17 1/2 lengths at Belmont Oct. 19 and then easily beat winner on the big track here Nov. 18. That win was flattered, too, as the second and third finishers both came right back to win.

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Race 9: Maiden Claiming ($25,000)

TAX RETURN may be ready to turn the corner. He was asked to debut in a stakes at Finger Lakes Oct. 1 and while that didn’t go well he then ran third in a pair of $35,000 races. He has speed and drops. TANNERY TOWN looks headed the right way. He was no factor in his first 2 starts but showed improvement here Dec. 8 when fourth despite trouble. That also came for $35,000 so the drop may help. He was only a neck behind 'RETURN last time. FIREBAY debuts with some decent works for a trainer (Rice) who can fire first time out, and with Dominguez taking the call. He's kin to 3 winners including Run Right Thru (stakes winners, twice stakes placed).

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My wagers

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