11/18/2011 12:47PM

How to bet Saturday's $250K guaranteed Aqueduct Pick 4


Here's my race-by-race rundown of Saturday's Guaranteed $250K Pick 4 at Aqueduct. I'm building my wager with TicketMaker, found exclusively on DRF.com.

Race 6: Pay The Butler Stakes $60,000

RIGHT ONE (#9) is the most likely winner, coming off races against better in Canada, and with recent wins on this circuit that are just better than what the others have been doing. This 1 1/16 mile distance is just a little longer than he's ever gone, and that introduces enough of an element of uncertainty to make the inclusion of "B" horses necessary.

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Race 7: Allowance $52,000

DAWLY (#3) is a bounceback candidate after tiring in a seven-furlong try in the slop, and his back Beyers fit well. In fact, he and STRATEGIC MOVE (#5) have some of the best sprint figures in the field, though ALL OF THE ABOVE (#2) is worth using as he drops in class and turns back to a sprint.

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Race 8: Discovery Handicap $100,000

I found it tough to separate REDEEMED (#4), RAISON D'ETAT (#6) and ARTHUR'S TALE (#8), so I'm including them all in equal measure. REDEEMED has steady figures and is the most likely winner in the field but RAISON D'ETAT is right there if he runs back to his best Beyers, which is certainly plausible, and ARTHUR'S TALE posted a Beyer in the Wood two back that puts him in the mix.

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Race 9: Maiden Special Weight $41,000

The most wide-open race of the sequence, no surprise in that it's the only maiden race in the Pick 4. AMERICAN BUFFALO (#10) is likely an "A" play on most tickets but MIKE AND ROB (#2) and AMPERSAND (#6) both have upside, and may be positioned to take advantage should the favorite not run back to his debut. I'm using three others as "B" plays and HEPATOLOGIST (#9) as a "C" but given bankroll flexibility in the event of a scratch in an earlier race and I'd go deeper in this one.

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My wagers

With TicketMaker I'm able to put greater emphasis on my "A" selections while still having coverage with my "B" and "C" picks just in case. This allows me to maximize my budget for this Pick 4.

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