How to bet the New York Showcase Pick 4 at Belmont

Here's my rundown for the Pick 4 at Belmont Park on Saturday, Oct. 22, New York Showcase Day.

Race 7: Gimma Stakes

HARBOR MIST (#9) is easily forgiven for that dull try in the Frizette, as she not only was in tough there but she also endured a difficult trip. Her previous Beyers are plenty good enough to get her home first here, especially if she rates off a quick, contested pace, a very plausible pace scenario.

WILDCAT'S SMILE (#3) has never been this far but her running style suggests the extra distance should be to her liking, and she's another who stands to benefit if the pace is fast and pressured.

VICTORY ISLAND (#1) merits respect off that debut Beyer, and though she was behind HARBOR MIST in that stakes try last time she was compromised by a tardy start; should work out a nice stalking trip from the inside, assuming a clean start.

NEWBIE (#5) benefited from a perfect trip in that maiden score but she may get a similar set-up here.

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Race 8: Ticonderoga Stakes

GITCHIE GOOMIE (#3) goes back to the statebred ranks after trying Grade

1 company in the Flower Bowl in her latest, and this class drop clearly makes her dangerous. She's already beaten many of these same rivals and she always seems to run her race. ROGUE'S JEWEL (#10) was a nose shy of beating GITCHIE GOOMIE in the Yaddo, a sharp effort that verified her affinity for the turf. She lacks the experience of some of these but she certainly has the talent to win this with the right kind of trip.

AKILINA (#9) made a run at the leader before tiring in her latest but that was on the main track, and she may have needed that race in her first start since May. HESSONITE (#6) meets older but comes off a game 2nd in her latest, when she closed despite some mild fractions up front.

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Race 9: Empire Classic

HAYNESFIELD (#4) has trained well toward his return and this statebred stake looks like an ideal spot for his first start since May: there's little speed in here, this is his favorite track and distance and his Beyers stand out. A short price looms but he's going to be very tough to beat under these circumstances.

INHERIT THE GOLD (#7) is another returning from a long layoff but he may be the main contender if the favorite doesn't come back running.

He won an allowance race off a similar freshening last year, albeit against lesser.

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Race 10: Mohawk Stakes

COMPLIANCE OFFICER (#5) has won four straight, including his last two against stakes company where he beat several of these same runners.

He's going to be a short price in this spot but he does hold a big edge in terms of Beyers, and his last couple clearly demonstrated he doesn't need to be set up by a lively pace.

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My wagers

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