10/28/2011 11:38AM

How to bet the Belmont Guaranteed $300,000 Late Pick 4


Here's my rundown for the Pick 4 at Belmont Park for the Bold Ruler Handicap card on Saturday:

Race 7: Maiden Claiming ($20,000)

Using as many plausible closers as possible, as it does seem there's plenty of speed in here to set up a rallier to make the last run. That list includes FREUD'S DEBUT (#1), PAPA FREUD (#3) and EUROPEAN ROULETTE (#11). I'll also use firster ROYAL ACT (#12), Also Eligible MORE THAN LUCKY (#16), and absentee BOURBON BANDIT (#8). He hasn't closed much ground in his career, but he does have nice enough works for his return.

What's this?

Race 8: Fillies & Mares Claiming ($20,000)

SAUCY JADE (#2) has some of the better Beyers in this field and is a must-use. Her win percentage is a slight concern but she's had excuses, especially in her last couple. SMART FARMING (#3) has been away but the back figures are certainly good enough. Also, the barn wins at a good rate with horses off this type of break. These two will be my two keys, and I'll stand with them for the purposes of this ticket, but I'll use two others on back-up tickets: SCHILLERETTE (#7) merits respect on the figure she earned in her most recent turf route, and LEONESSA (#10), who didn't beat much in that maiden claimer but she overcame a slow pace to win it.

What's this?

Race 9: Bold Ruler Handicap (Grade 3)

CAIXAELETRONICA(#1) really ran a big race for the show in that last sprint, which featured a controlled pace and a two-speed exacta, and his entrymate, CALIBRACHOA (#1A) is at least as capable. RODMAN (#4) turns back from the 10-furlong Jockey Club Gold Cup but he's been effective at this distance in the past. SANGAREE (#7) has been training well toward his return. I'll use those three on this main ticket, but back-up tickets will include: UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN, (#2) who ran well enough last time, considering the layoff; JUSTIN PHILLIP, another who has run some solid races at this seven furlong distance; and RULE BY NIGHT (#8), coming off a game win, and the best figure of his career came at this distance.

What's this?

Race 10: Claiming ($20,000)

OUTSTANDING HOPE (#2) has speed and draws inside. He has yet to win on the turf but he's run well in defeat on a couple of occasions. GLORY GAME (#4) was off the board in his turf bow but a race-long duel ruined his best chance. WELCHTOWN (#7) fits well on his best turf/sprint figures. TAWAARED (#10) hasn't proven himself as a sprinter but his Beyers have to be respected. BEACON HILL ROAD (#12) figures to be rolling late.

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My wagers

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