03/21/2012 12:29PM

How to bet Aqueduct's Friday Pick 4 - March 23, 2012


Here's my race-by-race rundown of Friday's pick four at Aqueduct on March 23, 2012. I'm building my wager with TicketMaker, found exclusively on DRF.com, using $0.50 incremental bets per race on a $100 budget.

Race 6 (Maiden claiming race)

Tough maiden claiming event draws entrants from Pletcher, McLaughlin, and Zito, but thought CREPUSCOLO (#4) was interesting in here despite being asked to get the mile off long layoff for Rudy. Raced very greenly in that long-ago debut and was shut off in some traffic stretch before coming again on the outside late; he’ll have to be ready, obviously. MEETING (#2) took no money and was outrun in sloppy track debut but McLaughlin has excellent numbers with maiden second time starters on the drop: 8-for-17 (47 percent), $3.98 ROI; Lasix on. BIRD TALE (#7) was wired by a repeat winner last out and now turns back a bit in race that should have more pace. Also including as a distant “C” backup MR. BEER GOGGLES (#8) who will drop back down and stretch out after dueling with impressive winner last time in very fast race (final time equal to undefeated Agave Kiss in Gr3 Cicada one race later). 

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Race 7 (Claiming race) 

PLEASANTFRIDAY (#6) is streaking right now and was a much more convincing winner last out than it may appear, as she was taken on early and forced to race every step but still held off the closers. Handled TACONIC VICTORY at this level on February 9; needs to keep it going for new connections.  EMILY ALLSTAR (#4) seems an obvious player here dropping in with competitive figures, and she has been in some tougher spots lately, just find myself having a tough time falling for a horse without a win since 2010. TACONIC VICTORY (#3) was held off by PLEASANTFRIDAY last out, and she’s been more disappointing than not, but clearly has races that make her very competitive in here. 

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Race 8 (Allowance race)

QUIET EYES (#2) continually had trouble from the gate vs. MSW company (mostly of his own doing) while appearing to have some ability if he could put things together, which he clearly did on the drop last time. If he can run anything approaching that race back he will simply be too much for this field. 

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Race 9 (Maiden claiming race)

SHE’S A LISTENER (#3) didn’t handle the stretch out last time, but both sprints for prior connections are better than they appear on paper, and she lands in a good spot here turning back off the claim. I’ll take my chances with her and make her my “A”. SHES TUFF AS NAILS (#9) put in good stretch run after losing all chance at the break at this level two back; using as she drops back down. Guess (#8) PRIVATE COUNCEL (turning back) and (#7) HAPPY REFRAIN (dropping) have to have some kind of chance, but will use mostly as backups.

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My wagers

With TicketMaker I'm able to put greater emphasis on my "A" selections while still having coverage with my "B" and "C" picks just in case. This allows me to maximize (and stay within) my budget of $100 for this pick four.

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