02/29/2012 1:06PM

How to bet Aqueduct's Friday Pick 4 - March 2, 2012


Here's my race-by-race rundown of Friday's pick four at Aqueduct on March 2, 2012. I'm building my wager with TicketMaker, found exclusively on DRF.com.

Race 6 ($51,000 optional claiming race)

FUNKY MUNKY MAMA (#5) steps in with open company fresh off unpressured wire-job as the heavy favorite on January 26. Looms the speed once again, and noting that runnerup from that last one returned to win with an 84 Beyer, but she should be under more pressure here and I just don’t trust her. SCOTT’S ALY CAT (#6) has been away for over eight months and was defeated at short prices last two at MTH, but she didn’t have the best of it either time while in tight on the rail, and she was a convincing winner of first two starts on this circuit. According to Formulator, McLaughlin over the past five years with returnees from 180+ day layoffs sprinting on the inner dirt: 6-for-15 (40 percent) with an ROI of $4.30. Also covering JOONBI (#4), a consistent sort who lands in easier spot returning to the level of January 1st claim.

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Race 7 ($75,000 Bold Brat)

Interesting overnight stakes for female sprinters in that the speed-types have the most proven ability, but also enter off of either poor recent efforts (GOLDEN MYSTERY, FINAL MESA) or a layoff (MAPLE FOREST). MAPLE FOREST (#7) got the best of the draw and will be used, but the three of them should ensure a pace that may help the disappointing STREAKER (#6) get back on track second off the layoff. Return in last month’s Correction was sneaky-good running late up the inside from off a moderate pace. DONTBESHY I’LL BUY (#3) may be a sucker horse in this race, but her turf races just weren’t very good and she ran much better on dirt last time behind the streaking Izzy Rules (won three straight, Beyers of 94 & 96 last two).

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Race 8 ($57,000 allowance race)

PURELY MAJESTIC (#4) has looked good in each of last two starts and figures tough to beat if she reproduces that form. HONEY MOU (#5) has been an improved horse since the claim three starts back and is a dangerous rival. 

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Race 9 ($30,000 maiden claiming race)

INQUEST (#5) broke slowly from the gate and brushed up to contest the pace while four-wide through the turn and stretch before weakening late in debut. Likely to be heavily favored vs. this crew. PURE NATURE (#8) was very green when debuting in short sprint almost a year ago. Returns for $20k and trainer has strong numbers on the inner over the past couple of years with both MSW-to-Maiden Claiming droppers in second career start (4-for-7, with all seven hitting the board) and with maidens making first start after a trainer change (3-for-4, including Sunset Sally who debuted last April in 2.5f dash at GP, and returned in December for a tag on the inner and won with 50 Beyer.).

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My wagers

With TicketMaker I'm able to put greater emphasis on my "A" selections while still having coverage with my "B" and "C" picks just in case. This allows me to maximize my budget for this pick four.

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