03/14/2012 12:33PM

How to bet Aqueduct's Friday Pick 4 - March 16, 2012


Here's my race-by-race rundown of Friday's pick four at Aqueduct on March 16, 2012. I'm building my wager with TicketMaker, found exclusively on DRF.com.

Race 6 (Maiden claiming race)

STONEMILL (#5) was unlucky loser two back after enduring a very tough trip, and came back to run winning race vs. odds-on dropdown Alvito last out. Repeat of either of those efforts should get him the money this time.

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Race 7 (Claiming race) 

DOWNHILL JOEY (#8) and MCCARREN PARK (#9) met up in $50,000 Starter Optional Claimer on Feb 17, and dueled through the turn and stretch before ultimately succumbing to closers. They land in a much softer spot here and will cover both, but giving the edge to MCCARREN PARK, who is positioned outside and may revert to stalking trip this time with speed-type STAR VESTA (#6) signed on.  SMOKIN’ ALICE (#5) went first off the claim for Rudy and came through with a much improved performance behind odds-on Hard Mystery; drops and turns back.

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Race 8 (Optional claiming race)

Closely matched field features three-pronged Repole entry which will go favored based on sheer numbers.  Much prefer the Levine part of the team (STARFORADAY [#1]) over the two Pletchers (DRIVEN BY SOLAR [#1a], OVERCOMMUNICATION [#1x]) but forced to take them all. Also using the uncoupled Levine runner SPIRIT OF COCHISE (#4), who goes well off of layoffs and can land an up close trip. QUE POSSE (#5) found contentious spot for return, but he’s run competitive races and will offer value. McLaughlin has good numbers with this type of returnee via Formulator - Past Five Years, 180-plus day layoff, sprinting on the inner dirt: 7-for-17 (41 percent) with $3.95 ROI, a sample that includes Cowgirls Don’t Cry, Per Incanto, Valid Sum & Opening Move, who posted new Beyer tops under the profile. Been doing some chasing of DE PRICE (#2) since he finished well behind This Ones For Phil three back, and he has been wired in each of last two starts in races where no pace developed. Getting tired of him, but will back up for insanity insurance.

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Race 9 (Maiden claiming race) 

THREE BET (#9) put in a little run after being outpaced early in her sprint debut which earned her a couple of additional tries vs. MSW company, but gets necessary class drop here. Interesting trainer stat for Mark Hennig covering small sample via Formulator - Past Three Years, MSW-to-Maiden Claiming drop, Turf-to-scheduled dirt: 4-for-6, with winners paying $22.40, $18.80 and $12.20.  EXPECT GOOD NEWS (#6) dropped in for a tag and was under a ride throughout after breaking alertly last Saturday; returns quickly while stretching out for the first time, which may be what she wants.  RIVER'S END (#7) dropped in class and stretched out for the first time on Feb. 20, and was second best to perfect trip winner after getting into some early trouble and racing wide. DESTINATION MOON (#2) raced very greenly behind front running winner in debut, now drops back down and gets rider change to Dominguez, which makes her difficult to leave out. 

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My wagers

With TicketMaker I'm able to put greater emphasis on my "A" selections while still having coverage with my "B" picks just in case. This allows me to maximize my budget for this pick four.

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