02/08/2012 2:33PM

How to bet Aqueduct's Friday Pick 4 - Feb. 10, 2012

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Aqueduct's Friday late pick four is a sequence that hinges on successfully navigating the first and last legs, as races 7 and 8 feature logical-type contenders. Using the TicketMaker tool found exclusively on DRF.com to build my wager, my strategy will be to press Smokin Candy in Race 7, while spreading around him (especially in the finale) to maximize the chances of cashing should he come through.   

Race 6 ($44,000 claiming race)

PLOTTER (#2) starts for connections which assure that he’ll be overbet while stretching out for the first time, but also drops in class after swerving in and bumping at the break last time behind Gr3 placed Friscan. Using him as an "A" along with recent class-dropping maiden breakers MUSTER UP (#1), who overcame some trouble to close down next out MSW winner (with 60 Beyer) Toninthirteen, and RED BENDEL (#4) who is first off the claim away from Pletcher, but did all the racing as part of three-way contested pace last time. Also want to include RAFFIE’S BANDIT (#7) as he has earned competitive figures out of town, and should have some pace in front of him here.

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Race 7 ($34,000 maiden claimer)

SMOKIN CANDY (#9) had no chance trip going a mile two back, and then was bumped and never able to get into position last time, but finshed best. Good post here and found the right field; he’s the "A."  For backups would go to the obvious ROCK STAR CHARLIE (#4) who has speed, but blew clear lead at Finger Lakes two back, and perhaps firster NORTHERN RUSH (#2), as Asmussen has only had four horses make their debut sprinting  for a tag on the inner dirt over the prior four years, but has won with three of them.

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Race 8 ($55,000 Starter Handicap)

Felt JOAN’S CHOICE (#3) caught some favorable situations which made him appear better than he really is when winning with solid figures on Nov 6 & Dec 9, but he came right back last time and was confidently ridden throughout third straight victory with another 95 Beyer.  Could lean on him to spread a bit in other legs, but I’ll give SENIORS PRIDE (#4) a chance to upset, and use him as an equal "A." No match for Joan’s Choice last time, but that was off a three month break and he could be a much tougher customer this time.

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Race 9 ($39,000 claiming race)

A lot going on in treacherous last leg to cash out, with several dropping in class, and a few more going off the claim for dangerous outfits. There does appear to be a lot of speed on paper, however, so will play it for a meltdown and go to (#9) CAPS LADY (Arroyo 23 percent first after claim on inner dirt past 5 years, with $3.20 ROI) & (#10) FULL OF INTENT (Levine 32 off the claim from over 200 starters past 5 years) who were wired by Kentucky invader Supsa on Jan 19, but figure to have a better setup here. PROUD SIREN (#7) also appears capable as he drops in for a tag for high percentage connections. Will then take some insurance should the lone "A" in race 7 come through and make (#1) STAR VESTA (survived 3-way speed duel last out), (#4) HOOK IT UP (big drop in class off layoff), and (#5 ) STAR VESTA (first off claim by Rudy) "B's."

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My wagers

With TicketMaker I'm able to put greater emphasis on my "A" selections while still having coverage with my "B" and "C" picks just in case. This allows me to maximize my budget for this pick four.

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