04/11/2012 12:29PM

How to bet Aqueduct's Friday Pick 4 - April 13, 2012


Here's my race-by-race rundown of Friday's pick four at Aqueduct on April 13, 2012. I'm building my wager with TicketMaker, found exclusively on DRF.com, using incremental bets of $0.50 on a $100 budget.

Race 6 (Maiden special weight)

CLOSING MOVE (#3) was gamely second-best after racing greenly in debut over this track/trip last November. Much more professional improving Beyer by 10 points down at Gulfstream behind next out stakes winner Wait Til Dawn; Lasix on. ADRINA (#5) got outrun early and finished with some interest in sprint debut which got a figure that hasn’t been very predictive (six of the horses to have run back out of that race posted Beyer Speed Figures at least 12 points higher). Half-sister to last year’s Derby Trial winner Machen also stretches out for Mott (past five years, maidens going sprint-to-route in 2nd career start on dirt: 28 percent, $2.19 ROI). They are both “A’s”. 

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Race 7 (Optional claiming race)  

Challenging New York-bred allowance on grass is open to several different horses. PURE AMOUR (#5) won her only start vs. fellow state-breds last year, and has faced some tougher competition down in Florida since December return. Inclined to play against her, but will use her as a backup “B” in the Pick 4. My “A’s” will be (#1) OATKA IDAS ROSE (Rudy 4-for-7 with 180-plus day layoffs on grass over past couple of years, including win with this horse last May); (#7) GLORY IN MOTION (four-time turf winner has run well off layoffs and likes this course); and (#9) DREAMING OF CARA, who is holding good main track form and did not run poorly in pair of turf starts at end of two-year-old season while still a maiden. 

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Race 8 (Optional claiming race) 

ISN’T HE PERFECT (#4) has won only two of his last 15 starts, but he’s run in plenty of tough spots and has shown some ability when properly placed. Switches to Dutrow and turns back in distance, which has been a very potent combination over the past five years: 8-21 (38 percent), $4.42 ROI.  Concerned that JAGUAR PAW (#8) hasn’t run since January 28th (he’s been entered and scratched at least once), but have to use him as he ran very well in three-wide trip against a strong rail that day.

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Race 9 (Maiden special weight) 

Hoping pedigree plays the biggest part in this race, as there is very little established turf form to go on. ADIRONDACK DANCER (#1) was second best for $25,000 tag on dirt last out, but figures to improve with this surface switch as his dam was a stakes quality runner on grass (4 wins, including a Group 3 in Ireland), and he is a half-brother to the talented He Dicho, who posted an 88 Beyer in his lone turf start. FRISKY CAT (#8) has offered little in pair of main track starts, but is also strongly bred to improve on turf (dam is a full sister to Riskaverse, a multiple Grade 1 winner who banked over $2 million on the grass). HIDDEN VOW (#6) is difficult to trust after coming up empty at short price last time, but his debut wasn’t bad, and there is a lot of turf under his second dam. MORE ZEN TEA (#11) was a huge price in open company maiden special weight debut down at Tampa but gave a good account of himself despite failing to get through on the rail in upper-stretch. Appears the most likely winner in here if one of the first-time turfers doesn’t step forward.

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My wagers

With TicketMaker I'm able to put greater emphasis on my "A" selections while still having coverage with my "B" picks just in case. This allows me to maximize my budget of $100 for this pick four (and come up $12 under budget).

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