10/25/2017 4:57PM

Hoosier: Friday 10/27 Analysis


Best Bet: ROCKIN N RUNNIN (13th)


Race 1

Keep an eye on the forecast as it is calling for a 100% chance of rain as of Wednesday. (6) MR WIGGLE PANTS ships down from Canada in decent form and reunites with McNair, who scored a victory with him two starts back. This is not an easy field but he should be close to the action with every shot. (9) NIGHT PRO was second in the Invitational last week versus many of the foes he faces tonight. What’s not to love about a 99-51-25-4 career record? (3) NEW TALENT took too much air on the rim last out but seems sharp enough to compete with a clean trip. (5) VANCE BAYAMA has climbed the class ladder successfully. A patient drive combined with a quick pace could be his recipe for possible victory.

Race 2

(4) SHAKEAPUDDIN blitzed a NW2 field two starts back and seems very comfortable at this level. I’m not crazy about the fact that she has just 2 wins in 18 starts but this field isn’t exactly a bunch of killers. (11) RIVERDANCING DIVA is by far the sharpest horse in the race, though I would prefer if she wasn’t in the second tier. (1) NAN’S QUEEN was used hard at the start and packed it in last time; seems capable. (6) HE’S ON A MISSION has only missed the board twice in 14 career starts. I think he is better than most will give him credit for.

Race 3

(3) ALWAYS GIGGLING was used to the front past the quarter and still found enough in the tank to rally for third in the stretch behind Carol’s Z Tam, who is competing in the Breeders Crown tonight. This daughter of Always A Virgin isn’t a superstar but she can put in a good effort in this spot. (6) ROCKIN SERENA made a nice middle move to the front in the same race as the top pick but lacked a stretch kick. With a smoother journey she could compete. (4) ROCK IS SWEET comes off an eye-catching 1:50 4/5 win at Dayton and is adding David Miller. She’s the clear favorite but too much of an underlay for me. (10) SHOT OF SWEET LOVE has won three straight and overcame post 10 two starts back.

Race 4

(4) ON A SUNNY DAY ships down for trainer Luc Blais and he usually has them ready. (6) TEMPLE RUINS seems likely to be pointed to the front and her recent form is fine. (5) ROSE RUN SYDNEY is an Ohio-bred trotter that has been on a roll with the exception of the one effort versus older foes at Dayton. Maybe she is this good. (3) SIANNA HANOVER gets some major class relief but still hasn’t proven to be fast enough to go with the best ones in here.

Race 5

(10) STABLE EYES grew wings in the stretch to win in her first start since August last Friday. David Miller joins the team and as long as he can navigate the second tier, she is the one to beat. (5) SHADY CAROLINE has a huge advantage on the top pick because she can make her own pace from the high percentage five-hole. That said, I’m a bit concerned that she doesn’t want to win after a bunch of races versus tougher. (3) GLORIOUS INTENT comes off a sharp effort last week and Trace Tetrick sticks with his main man trainer Brian Brown here over my top choice. (9) MISS MADY never got involved last time and post nine won’t do her any favors, but she has a shot to hit the ticket at a price. (2) ENDEAVORS FANTASY has early speed and form; using in exotics.

Race 6

(3) BETTOR’S UP has a clear class edge on this field and should prove tough to beat. (10) AL-MAR-GOT A FEVER rolled to consecutive scores before getting scratched-sick from the Courageous Lady last time. She’s another Ohio horse in town that has a chance. (2) ROSEMARY ROSE rallied to win the Courageous Lady and seems like a fit with this group. (4) BERAZZLED was second behind Agent Q two starts back and drilled a mile in 1:52 2/5 last out at Northfield. Charley Barley-sired filly has talent.

Race 7

It is simply impossible to make a case for any horse in this field other than likely 1-5 favorite (1) EMOTICON HANOVER. She’ll be on the engine through what should be slow fractions in this abbreviated field and should coast to victory. (4) CAPRICE HILL didn’t race well in the slop last time, which is a bit of a concern, but her best is better than the rest. (2) FLOWERS N SONGS is coming up on the bad week of an every other week pattern. She did mind her manners in a recent off-track start. (3) PINK PISTOL would be a nice story but I’m not buying into her.

Race 8

(5) PHAETOSIVE spotted Manchego too much ground in the James Doherty and had to settle for second. She couldn’t trot a straight line in the Peaceful Way and lost by less than a length to that foe again. Maybe I’m reaching to think trainer Trond Smedshammer will put the perfect drive in this week, but she appears to have enough talent to take down the heavy favorite (4) MANCHEGO at about 2-1. The latter has yet to lose in 11 career starts. What’s not to like? (8) LILY STRIDE was spectacular in her elimination, but the outside post and quality of the top pair make it tough to believe she can win. (3) HEY BLONDIE is capable of saving ground and closing for a decent piece.

Race 9

Too often bettors focus only on the last start of a horse. I’m hoping that will be the case with (5) AGENT Q. Arguably the best 3-year-old filly pace at times this year, she was flat as a pancake in her elimination. Knowing that a victory wasn’t absolutely necessary that night to make the Final, I’m expecting trainer Aaron Lambert to have her tighter this week. (2) CAVIART ALLY may have finished fifth but put in a strong mile in the elimination. She remains the ‘now’ filly in this field. (4) INVERSE HANOVER was dull in the Glen Garnsey at Lexington but clearly had more life with Lasix added last week; we just didn’t see it because she was stuck in stretch traffic. (3) ELLA CHRISTINA blew up the tote board a week ago and can sprint the final quarter with any of these; capable with a trip. (1) BLAZIN BRITCHES has the talent to win but I would need at least 5-1 to roll the dice; maybe we get that? (7) IDYLLIC BEACH has been racing much better in recent weeks and she would be no surprise in the best Crown race on the card.

Race 10

Perhaps I’m digging too deep here, but we already saw (8) ARIANA G go down once to defeat over a sloppy track, though a completely different surface at the Red Mile. It really depends on what type of wet track we get as some tracks remain very fast and hard through the rain. If that is the case, Ariana G is my selection. If we get a more tiring track, I’m throwing my support elsewhere since her natural ability will be negated to some extent as the times of these races will be slower. (4) DREAM TOGETHER hasn’t trotted a huge mile yet this year, but she may not need to if the track is on the slow side. She is extremely consistent and has the speed to stay in striking range. (1) DREAM BABY DREAM tends to be in the wrong spot at the wrong time week after week. Maybe post one will help her get a good trip. (10) ICE ATTRACTION just missed behind (5) OVERDRAFT VOLO in the elimination and either seems capable of at least an excotics spot with the right trip.

Race 11

(4) YOUAREMYCANDYGIRL and (3) RAINBOW ROOM are difficult to separate on paper. Sometimes you have to go with your gut and mine has never been a big fan of Rainbow Room as she has lost races where she should have won from my perspective. I’ll take ‘Candy Girl’ as she seeks her fifth straight win. (1) REIGN ON ME closed some ground on the top pick last week but there was never really need for concern. With another step forward she could be a win player. (7) STRONG OPINION has high early speed and that should set her up for an exotics slot. (2) COME SEE THE SHOW saved ground and got a piece last week and can post a similar effort here.

Race 12

(4) DARLINONTHEBEACH is a very talented mare that could save an otherwise bad season with a Breeders Crown win. She is versatile enough to win from on or off the pace and should still offer decent value with (3) NIKE FRANCO N signed on. The latter has won three straight and is a victory away from locking up divisional honors; must use. (2) PURE COUNTRY hasn’t been the same in recent weeks, but we know trainer Jimmy Takter knows how to get a horse ready for a big race. Her best efforts have been when she is used aggressively and I’m expecting those tactics here. (8) LADY SHADOW hasn’t been the same mare all year. Could she win? Yes. I’m playing against her.

Race 13

(6) ROCKIN N RUNNIN doesn’t look very enticing at first glance, but she was used hard in both recent starts and couldn’t close into softer fractions three starts back. She should dismiss of this group with any reasonable trip. (4) ALWAYS A VISION comes off a decent effort but will be at the mercy of the pace setup. (5) THIS FLIGHT ROCKS has taken some shots at Hoosier without much success since May. That said, there is something to be said for her confidence after winning as much as she has lately. (1) NANCY MALINDA didn’t fire with a new driver last time. Maybe Miller can get her going.

Race 14

(4) OUREA NOURRIR closed from the clouds to be third in his first start for this barn on October 19. Nine-year-old has some class and should show it here. (1) COSMICPEDIA & (3) ER ZACH ATTACK are both coming off solid efforts in the first round of this mini-series. (7) VAGUE TRACES blew them away last week but I’m not running to the windows on him at a shorter price.

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