06/28/2011 12:45PM

Hollywood Park: Possible singles as $111,940 pick-six carryover awaits


INGLEWOOD, Calif. – Pick-six sequences rarely are as straightforward as the pick six Thursday at Hollywood Park, where the pool begins with a carryover of $111,940.

New money bet Thursday is likely to soar past $500,000, and budget-minded horseplayers will be tempted into the pool by apparent standouts in the middle legs of a sequence that covers (races 3-8) – Hughesy in race 5 and American Lady in race 6.

HOLLYWOOD PICK SIX: Get past performances and analysis »

Hughesy is likely to be even-money or less in race 5, a turf route for $25,000 claimers, nonwinners of two lifetime. American Lady’s odds will be considerably shorter in race 6, an allowance sprint for fillies and mares. She is likely to start at odds-on.

If even-money on Hughesy and 1-2 on American Lady are accurate, then there is “only” a 33 percent probability both favorites will win. Perhaps the pick six is not that easy, after all. Below is a look at the sequence that begins soon after 2 p.m. Pacific.

Race 3 is a six-furlong turf sprint for 3-year-olds running for a $62,500 claiming tag. The race is problematic because the best horse is overqualified for a claimer. That is War Pilot, a powerful allowance winner May 13 against older. The race set him up for a stakes, and trainer Mike Pender entered him June 17 in the $70,000 Tsunami Slew.

However, War Pilot was scratched by the track vet and is now entered to be claimed. His form is dubious, yet he must be included with layoff dropper Diamond Geezah and last-out winner Luckarack. Dancing at Dark also won last out. That is four deep.

Race 4 is a seven-furlong, main-track $30,000 maiden claimer. Three hit the board last out – Portfolio, Zees Chris, and Running Isabella. But second-timer Santabarbrabendita ran better than looks and drops for a low-profile, high-percentage trainer-jockey combination of Jorge Alcala and Joel Rosario. The past five years, they are 8 for 28. That is four deep.

Race 5 features standout Hughesy, trained by Doug O’Neill and dropping for the first time into a restricted claimer. He is the fastest in the field and a short-price single.

Race 6 favorite American Lady is the controlling speed at 6 1/2 furlongs; her 91 and 96 Beyer Speed Figures tower over the best figures of her rivals. Bob Baffert trains the gray front-runner, who should be long gone. Baffert favorites this meet are 15 for 27. Single.

Race 7 is a first-level turf allowance for fillies and mares at 1 1/4 miles. Mutually Benefit is the favorite, but she has not raced beyond 1 1/16 miles and faces tougher. There is only one apparent toss-out, but why throw out the longest shot? “All” is seven deep.

Race 8 is a maiden special weight at 6 1/2 furlongs with obvious choices – Just Imagine, runner-up in two straight, and route-to-sprint front-runner Patriot’s Voyage. Can a bettor close the sequence with just that pair? That is two deep.

The outlined ticket is a $448 play (4 x 4 x 1 x 1 x 7 x 2 multiplied by $2).