11/19/2013 4:27PM

Hollywood Park: Baffert speedsters look to rebound Thursday


INGLEWOOD, Calif. – To make money Thursday at Betfair Hollywood Park, bettors must address two Bob Baffert trainees who enter with favorable attributes and one big knock – both finished last in recent comebacks.

Key Vista was odds-on in an allowance race Oct. 5, but she caved. Despite the debacle, the speedster should be favored Thursday, when she makes her second start back in race 2. Key Vista faces four rivals in an allowance for statebred filly and mare sprinters.

Magic Daddy also ran below expectations Oct. 5. A two-start maiden, he pressed the pace and faded as the second favorite. He gets another shot Thursday while moving to turf in race 6. Magic Daddy is the speed of the maiden sprint, facing eight rivals.

A surface switch is reason enough to give both horses another chance Thursday. Key Vista returns to the track on which she scored a runaway debut victory; Magic Daddy will test his turf pedigree.

Key Vista is co-owned by Baffert assistant Mike Marlow. Her comeback at Santa Anita looked like a foregone conclusion based on her debut 10 months earlier, a 9 1/2-length romp at Hollywood that earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure.

But in her comeback at Santa Anita, Key Vista was done early. The half-mile in 44.74 seconds was fast but not blazing. At the quarter pole, Key Vista was done. She backed up and finished ninth of nine.

With a series of fast works since, it is fair to expect Key Vista to rebound Thursday on the track where she won her debut and where she is stabled. A Hollywood horse-for-course, she figures to make the lead and could be gone under Martin Garcia.

However, speed has not been entirely reliable this fall at Hollywood. During the first two weeks of the meet, only 5 of 38 sprints (13 percent) were won by the pacesetter.

The rivals for Key Vista are Oscillator, Tribal Chatter, Another Flashback, and J and S Express. Race 2 is the only non-claiming race for winners on the Thursday card.

Race 6 is more complex. Magic Daddy’s ability is unproven; he did not run fast in either start. The runner-up in his debut at Del Mar, he was well supported Oct. 5 in a maiden sprint on dirt. He pressed a half-mile that was quick for maidens at 44.47. Magic Daddy folded.

The pace scenario Thursday is softer. Magic Daddy should clear the field in his first start on grass. As a son of Scat Daddy, turf should be fine. Scat Daddy’s progeny have won 14 percent of their starts on turf.

With a clean break from the rail, Magic Daddy can be gone under Garcia. Six turf sprints during the first two weeks produced two pacesetting winners and another who pressed the pace while always within a head of the lead. Based on the six-race sample, speed is fine in turf sprints.

Key rivals for Magic Daddy include Money Clip, a comebacker making his first start since being gelded, and the filly Oughttobenaughty.

Ian GW More than 1 year ago
Please let me know when this track has a playable pick 5. I cringe when I see the entries here on weekends.
Paul Aussenhofer More than 1 year ago
Hey a parlay of those two horses may pay $8.00 ( if both are even money which I think they may be, especially if Key Vista wins the 2nd race. Thanks for writing about the obvious and keep touting that chalk. FYI, there may be value in multi race bets (pk 4s, 5s, &6s) but certainly not straight up.
Scott Kilbury More than 1 year ago
Good column Brad, I like your insight!
Dean More than 1 year ago
and how does Brad Free get air time on HRTV? For all the quality insight HRTV hosts and handicappers provide he is defiantly a class below...He should be on TVG....Only time I ever switch Chanel to TVG is during Brads segments
Paul Aussenhofer More than 1 year ago
Hey, it's a tough job but someone's got to do it. Right? I wish I could be paid to give out chalk all day. There are two related issues, BF is the morning line maker. The M/L is supposed to be an estimate of what the M/L maker thinks the fans will bet. Too many times, BF lets his personal opinion the M/L favorite. Then he goes on the air (either HRTV or closed circuit feed) and selects his M/L favorite has his choice to win. Please correct me if I am wrong, has he EVER given a 10-1 or better as his selection? Didn't think so. The only advantage to him is if you like another horse, his combination M/L and on air tout increases your horses odds and ROI. Keep touting that Chalk, Brad. Thanks!!
Lenny Mamola More than 1 year ago
J Vette More than 1 year ago
How come Brad Free didn't do an interview with Baffert before writing about his 2 horses ? All he gave us was a bunch of useless info, wish I could get paid for doing that... The article was a total waste of time to read.