02/01/2010 1:00AM

Hard to pass a rare high-Beyer overlay

Jim Lisa
All six of the filly's Sweet Repent's victories have come at Calder.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Typically there is little value in backing a horse who owns the top overall Beyer Speed Figure, as well as the greatest earnings. Provided their best days are not well behind them, such horses usually stand out to such an extent that they are short-priced favorites.

Somehow I don't see that happening with Lucky Chuck in Saturday's WEBN Stakes at Turfway Park. Being an Indiana-bred by Slew City Slew out of a Count the Time mare and coming off a fourth-place finish in the Turfway Prevue, anticipate him starting at odds of 5-1 or more vs. a full field in the one-mile WEBN for 3-year-olds.

Lucky Chuck warrants a wager at that price. He is, as noted, the top figure horse, having run an 84 Beyer two starts ago over the Turfway Park Polytrack - giving him an edge of 6 Beyer points or more over his opponents' career-best numbers. And he is also leading money earner in the field with an $82,403 bankroll, swelled by having won 3 races from 8 starts, including a stakes.

Yet because that stakes victory came at Hoosier Park in the Indiana Futurity, an Indiana-bred race that was contested in the mud, horseplayers are likely to focus their attention elsewhere - most likely on recent maiden winner In the Paint, who has a flashier pedigree, being by Tiznow, and who has already won at a mile.

Lucky Chuck, meanwhile, has raced a mile just once, finishing a soundly beaten sixth over soft turf at Ellis Park last summer.

That failure means little. It came efore Lucky Chuck began to peak, and over a surface he may have disliked.

Clearly he likes the Polytrack. He proved as much when he blitzed 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:16.95 at Turfway on Dec. 17, easily defeating WEBN contender Fish.

Lucky Chuck's last race, a lackluster fourth-place finish in the Jan. 2 Turfway Prevue, seems the result of a bounce following a 16-day turnaround, and catching a Polytrack surface that was much more tiring than the one over which he won in December.

With four weeks' rest heading into the WEBN, look for a far better performance from Lucky Chuck and at an overlaid price.

Sweet Repent solid at 2-1 or higher

Turning south to Gulfstream Park, where three Sunshine Millions stakes races are being run Saturday, I'm intrigued at the prospect of playing Sweet Repent in the Sunshine Millions Distaff.

A 4-year-old filly, Sweet Repent starts off her 2010 campaign after winning her last four starts of 2009, including three stakes. Her final two races produced Beyers of 110 and 103, respectively, in the Elmer Heubeck Distaff and Stage Door Betty Handicap.

Because all six of her victories have come at Calder, some bettors may balk at backing her, allowing her to start at or above her 2-1 morning-line price.

Following a bullet work over the Gulfstream strip Jan. 22, I suspect she will extend her sharp form to Gulfstream.

And though jockey Manny Cruz has had a quiet meet, he and Sweet Repent are a good team. Eight times in her 12-race career he has ridden her, resulting in six wins and two runner-up finishes.

Sprint sets up for Dubai Majesty

Lastly, focusing on Santa Anita, where the other three Sunshine Millions races will be contested, the play in the Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Sprint is Dubai Majesty, who cuts back to her best distance of six furlongs.

It is at that distance she won the Grade 3 Winning Colors at Churchill Downs last year, one of her three victories in 2009. Dubai Majesty also won a dirt allowance at six furlongs at Fair Grounds and the Buffalo Trace Franklin County Stakes going 5 1/2 furlongs on the Keeneland grass course.

She was also second in this race last year when it was run at Gulfstream on dirt, rallying through the lane but proving to unable to catch front-running High Resolve, who is back to defend her title this year.

This year the conditions of the Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Sprint favor Dubai Majesty. There is an abundance of speed in the lineup, setting up Dubai Majesty to get a perfect, just off-the-pace trip.

As for moving from dirt to Santa Anita's synthetic surface, it should be noted she ran well in two starts over Keeneland's Polytrack, finishing third behind Informed Decision in the 2008 Raven Run, and a close fourth behind Informed Decision and Ventura in the last year's Madison Stakes there.