06/16/2005 12:00AM

Hard to gauge how Final Prophecy will run


MIAMI - Anybody handicapping Saturday's $40,000 Band Is Passing Stakes at Calder must start by trying to decide which Final Prophecy will show up for the race.

Will it be the one who rallied from last to score a three-quarter-length victory over He's Crafty and Miesque's Approval in the Carterista Handicap earlier in the meet? Or will it be the horse who had dropped his previous five starts, including two under allowance conditions, since upsetting the Bonnie Heath Turf Cup here last fall?

will not have an easy task Saturday, even if he can repeat his performances in the Carterista and Bonnie Heath. Final Prophecy, a 6-year-old, must not only shoulder high weight of 123 pounds under the allowance conditions of the event but he will also likely need a little more pace help than he's likely to receive with very little speed in the 1 1/16-mile overnight stakes.

Final Prophecy benefited from a fast and hotly contested pace in the Carterista but was nevertheless impressive, looping the field around the turn before outfinishing He's Crafty, who had gained the lead near midstretch. He's Crafty further flattered the performance when he came back to win a high-priced claiming race by three lengths at Hollywood Park earlier this month. Eddie Castro will get the call from trainer David Brownlee.

If Final Prophecy does prove vulnerable, Prince Alphie may be a good alternative. A stakes winner, Prince Alphie returned from a nine-month layoff with an even effort going five furlongs in the Reappeal Stakes here May 14 and figures to move forward with a race under his belt.

Prince Alphie has captured 4 of his 10 starts on turf while consistently earning Beyer Speed Figures in the 90's before he was given some time off after finishing a troubled fifth behind Soaring Free in Woodbine's Grade 3 Play King Handicap last August.

Lord Robyn, who has been outrun for the early lead in each of his last three starts, might finally be able to secure his favorite position on the front end despite stepping up against older horses for the first time. He used similar tactics to win the Grade 3 Tropical Park Derby on Jan. 1.

Who's Crying Now, beaten less than a length in the Grade 3 Memorial Day Handicap but winless in three career starts on grass, would become the horse to beat if the race is taken off the turf.