Updated on 09/16/2011 9:32AM

Handicappers' analysis of the Breeders' Cup Turf


European star High Chaparral stands out. After missing the summer because of illness, he used the Arc de Triomphe as a prep, ran well for third, and figures to move forward second start back. He meets an ordinary cast of U.S. turf runners, and will be justifiably favored to drill this field at low odds. Euro-shipper Golan is the logical alternative. Though Goldan is unraced since August, trainer Michael Stoute is expert at preparing comebackers. A Group 1 winner in a modest field, Golan can win only if High Chaparral loses. Denon will grind steadily; The Tin Man is not good enough to win, but a longshot threat on the lead; Falcon Flight loves this course; With Anticipation may have tailed off.

- Brad Free

High Chaparral finished a contending third, beaten by 1 1/4 lengths in the Arc de Triomphe in his return from a three-month layoff. He should be set for a top effort today, and his best will be good enough to win this. Golan is the primary threat but might need this race, making his first start since Aug. 20. If it is true that the Nov. 24 Japan Cup is his main goal as reported, this is the wrong time to accept modest odds in the neighborhood of 3-1. Ballingarry won the Canadian International at Woodbine with a 111 Beyer, but he enjoyed an easy trip while close to and then setting a very slow pace. Denon has been consistent with two wins and two seconds in four straight Grade 1 races. He'll be in good position tracking the leaders, and can be in the exotics.

- Steve Klein

Three-time Group 1 winner High Chaparral handles any ground and should be at tops after finishing evenly in Arc, his first start in 98 days and first loss since a nose defeat in his debut (when he dwelt in 18-horse field). In the Irish Derby, he had little trouble with Ballingarry, who in turn was much the best in Canadian International. Golan has been a top-class winner at 3 and 4, notably in the rich King George with a big late run under 133 pounds. Idle two months, but 4 for 5 when fresh, his lone defeat is in the Japan Cup when sixth of 15. Ballingarry was no match for top pick three back, but freaked on first-time Lasix, scoring in North American debut over horse-for-course Falcon Flight. May get first run at The Tin Man.

- Dave Litfin

High Chaparral showed high class completing the Epsom and Irish Derby double in June. He was a close third as the favorite most recently in the Arc de Triomphe, but that was his first start in more than three months and he will only improve on that effort. If High Chaparral doesn't win, then Golan will. Golan has been away since a near miss in August, but won the important King George and Queen Elizabeth before that at Ascot off an eight-month layoff. After the top two, there's a big drop off to Ballingarry, who wasn't in the same league as the pick in Ireland, but who came over and exposed the North American turfers as inferior with a comfortable win in the Canadian International.

- Mike Watchmaker