04/11/2017 5:51PM

Goldfeder: What was I thinking for April 8


The race day ebbs and flows and you have to move with each wave as it takes you on your course. This past Saturday I followed my list and got off to a good start, only to hit some rough waters along the way. When my list horses don’t perform well enough to win then I have to overcome that issue with bankroll awareness. That is why I survived, ending the day close to where I started as opposed to suffering high losses. You don’t have to be a great handicapper to do well at this game but you do have to be aware of what you are doing as a bettor. If you maintain control, then you can overcome a tough stretch where things aren’t going your way.

A quick review:

I try to bet around 5% of bankroll on any individual race. If I have a strong opinion I will raise that to 10%. The initial approach is to try to attack with simple methods, such as betting basic win-place and then jabbing with exactas and daily daily doubles. If I have strong keys I will go further and play DD’s, pick threes, pick fours, etc.

I prepare a list of horses that I think have the chance to be potential keys and put them in chronological order based on post time.

This past week I played 16 horses from a list that included 26 options. These were the plays:

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Review of some key plays:

Tampa 1: Turning nothing into something. The top horses in the first two races laid over their respective fields. I played a straight $10 DD. In the third I had a list horse, so I played a straight pick three for $5. I also I defended wagering a $2 pick three with three other contenders in the third leg. Wagered 5% and increased bankroll by 7%.

Keeneland 3: 4-Control Stake at 6-1, set the pace and got run down by a closer who drew away for win. Got $6 for place, which was a good churn result.

Jabbed to win with two short-priced horses at Laurel (3rd) and Aqueduct (6th) who I thought would be hard to beat. They got bet down late to prices shorter than I would have liked, but they won easily and that helped to move the bankroll forward.

Parx 7: I felt if the 12-Uplifting broke well he could wire this field. He did at 9-2. Wagered $15 win-place (5% of bankroll) and made profit of $88.50.

Aqueduct 7: This was the pivotal race of the day for me. As far as I was concerned two horses stood out as prime players. I thought about including them both on the list to be keyed in multi-win exotics. I settled on the 2-Cause for Surprise over 3-T Loves a Fight. I bet the No. 2 to Win, played a $5 exacta box and keyed them both in pick threes. I misplayed this race - WWIT? Given the exacta probables and respective win odds, the play should have been No. 3 to Win at 6-1 and a bigger exacta box with the 2-3. At this point the bankroll was $698.65. Five percent would have been $35. I really liked this scenario, so stretching to 10% was okay ($70). In a WWIT adjustment $15 win-place on the 3, $10 exacta box, and play the pick three for $1 instead of $2. The exacta came in 3-2 and paid $55.50. Total profit on the race was $58.75. Had I adjusted the play, the total profit would have been $326.50, bringing the bankroll to $1024.90.

Keeneland 7: I liked 3-Rainbow Heir in this competitive race and felt 7-2 was reasonable. I bet $10 win-place (4% of bankroll). Then I went a little crazy in exotics, wagering 7% of bankroll on pick fours and 2% on DD’s for a total investment of 13%. No. 3 finished off the board. Unlike the Aqueduct race where I had a clear vision, this was just a case where I liked the horse and felt he could win. Given the bankroll size I should have been much more conservative in exotics or played less to win-place. In any event 13% was way too high to wager in this spot.

Aqueduct 8: Took a chance that 7-Doyouknowsomethng could get the lead and wire the field. I bet him to win at 9-2. When they broke from the gate he didn’t get the lead and was 3-1. Immediately his value was lost and the position was not what I anticipated. I wasn’t surprised when he finished a distant third.

Keeneland 9: Things continued to go south as 2-Elate pulled up in the Ashland. I only used her in DD’s and only wagered 3% of bankroll.

I churned 95% of bankroll and had negative ROI of -.10/$1.00.

Win bets 3-12 (25%) with positive ROI of +.11/$1.00

Place bets 2-6 (33%) with negative ROI of -.17/$1.00

Exactas 1-20 (5%) with positive ROI of +.56/$1.00

At the peak of my day I wagered $236 and was ahead $236.65. I made the costly wagering mistake in the seventh race at Aqueduct, and even though I cashed in that race, things began to go downhill. I followed up that race with a poorly played race at Keeneland in race 7. However, I recognized that I was on the verge of getting out of control and went back to the strategy of the bankroll. Although I did not cash a ticket after the Aqueduct race, I did not panic and “chase” myself into submission. I was down only $34.35 for the day. When I began to go off course I recovered my bankroll awareness and effectively saved the day.

Every Tuesday I will write a brief "What Was I Thinking" review of the weekend's races. In addition I will be sending regular emails to DRF Bets customers with strategies and potential key horses to look at before the weekend races.

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