04/05/2017 7:38AM

Goldfeder: "What was I thinking?" for April 5

Email

Every wager I make prepares me for the next bet I’m going to make. If I keep doing the work and following a consistent strategy, good things will happen. Previously I had discussed churn and keeping track of bankroll. This is an ongoing process, and as my bankroll grows my churn will rise. For now I am using a $500 per day bankroll with the goal of churning between 50-100% and ending the day with a positive ROI of at least + .10/$1.00. Repetition allows me to stay disciplined. It’s very easy to stray from my basic philosophy and when this happens the long-term results suffer. It might work once or twice resulting in a nice hit, but if you go off course too often, losses can mount. This is not to say that I don’t believe in changing course. What I do believe in is complete awareness of what course you choose to take, and why you choose to take it. For now I am staying on this path.

A quick review:

I try to bet around 5% of bankroll on any individual race. If I have a strong opinion I will raise that to 10%. The initial approach is to try to attack with simple methods, such as betting basic win-place and then jabbing with exactas and daily doubles. If I have strong keys I will go further and play pick threes, pick fours, etc.

I prepare a list of horses that I think have the chance to be potential keys and put them in chronological order based on post time.

This past week I played 10 horses from a list that included 25 options. These were the plays:

Review of some key plays:

Aqueduct 3: The 4 horse on a wet track was a good price in a short field. Played to win and used with my other top contender in the race in P3. I liked a short priced horse in third leg so I played $4 P3 with 2x2x1 structure. The win bet was 4% of bankroll and the P3 4% as well. Total profit from these wagers was $174.

Gulfstream 7: I tried to get alive to 4-Mr. Jordan, who was 6-1 on the morning line. Used four horses in $5 DD’s from race 6. The longest shot at 13-1 won the race and I was alive to a $325 payout so there was no need for a win bet. I did wager 6% of bankroll taking shots with exactas and trifectas, but Mr. Jordan never got involved and may be better as a two-turn speed horse than a sprinter.

Aqueduct 6: My list horse, 6-Wildcat Belle was 8-1. I was intrigued by wire-to-wire possibility. I used with another who I thought had a chance at 9-1 in DDs, P3s and P4s. At 8-1 I should have also made a win bet. She didn’t win but that is where it all starts when I have a price horse. WWIT?

Oaklawn 6: 10-Manhattan Mischief hovered at around 4-1 before going off at 5-2. Lost win bet but exacta as place bet netted $22 profit in race. Good churn wager.

Aqueduct 7: Played 5-Picture Day at 9-2, win-place and keyed with two horses in exacta. Wagered 5% of bankroll and had profit of $92.80. If I just bet the whole $28 to win I would have shown profit of $133. Food for thought if I use different methodology. That said, this is part of current approach so I’m OK with the bet.

Gulfstream 11: Two solid singles on my list to start the P4 sequence. I spread in third leg and used three horses in last leg. I wagered $30 and had P4 for $1, netting profit of $127.40. I only singled both on my A ticket. Given that I used only 4% of bankroll I should have had the P4 for at least $2.

Santa Anita 10: I knew the 6-Lifeline was going to be tough but I thought that 5-Fortune of War would offer value. Played DDs from race before so I was alive to 5 and had no need to play win. Although the weakest exotic results occurred from my exacta and trifecta plays it was worth taking the chance as the 5 did run well.

Overall I churned 75% of bankroll and had a positive ROI of .57/$100. I tried to move the bankroll forward to the best of my ability.

Win bets 2-5 (%40) with positive ROI of $2.15/$1.00

Place bets 1-1 (100%) with positive ROI of $190/$1.00

Exacta as place bet 3-20 (15%) with positive ROI of .49/$1.00

I’m making adjustments each week, but having the list as a guide helps me to relax and pick my spots. If something else comes up I will play it, but for no more than 5% of the bankroll. The plan is not to chase a score but to have the flexibility to pursue a good payout if my bankroll allows it. As long as I keep a long-term view and stay relaxed I’m hopeful that I will get in a zone where I can play the bankroll and not just the races.

Every Tuesday I will write a brief "What was I thinking" review of the weekend's races. In addition I will be sending regular emails to DRF Bets customers with strategies and potential key horses to look at before the weekend races.

To get on the email list to receive my analysis for weekend races, join DRF Bets today. Plus, you’ll get the best sign-up bonus on the market - $300 cash when you bet $300.

Just use my special code DRFVIP and sign-up in 5 minutes.

To find out more about DRF Bets check out our website.