04/05/2017 6:38AM

Goldfeder: "What was I thinking?" for April 5


Every wager I make prepares me for the next bet I’m going to make. If I keep doing the work and following a consistent strategy, good things will happen. Previously I had discussed churn and keeping track of bankroll. This is an ongoing process, and as my bankroll grows my churn will rise. For now I am using a $500 per day bankroll with the goal of churning between 50-100% and ending the day with a positive ROI of at least + .10/$1.00. Repetition allows me to stay disciplined. It’s very easy to stray from my basic philosophy and when this happens the long-term results suffer. It might work once or twice resulting in a nice hit, but if you go off course too often, losses can mount. This is not to say that I don’t believe in changing course. What I do believe in is complete awareness of what course you choose to take, and why you choose to take it. For now I am staying on this path.

A quick review:

I try to bet around 5% of bankroll on any individual race. If I have a strong opinion I will raise that to 10%. The initial approach is to try to attack with simple methods, such as betting basic win-place and then jabbing with exactas and daily doubles. If I have strong keys I will go further and play pick threes, pick fours, etc.

I prepare a list of horses that I think have the chance to be potential keys and put them in chronological order based on post time.

This past week I played 10 horses from a list that included 25 options. These were the plays:

Review of some key plays:

Aqueduct 3: The 4 horse on a wet track was a good price in a short field. Played to win and used with my other top contender in the race in P3. I liked a short priced horse in third leg so I played $4 P3 with 2x2x1 structure. The win bet was 4% of bankroll and the P3 4% as well. Total profit from these wagers was $174.

Gulfstream 7: I tried to get alive to 4-Mr. Jordan, who was 6-1 on the morning line. Used four horses in $5 DD’s from race 6. The longest shot at 13-1 won the race and I was alive to a $325 payout so there was no need for a win bet. I did wager 6% of bankroll taking shots with exactas and trifectas, but Mr. Jordan never got involved and may be better as a two-turn speed horse than a sprinter.

Aqueduct 6: My list horse, 6-Wildcat Belle was 8-1. I was intrigued by wire-to-wire possibility. I used with another who I thought had a chance at 9-1 in DDs, P3s and P4s. At 8-1 I should have also made a win bet. She didn’t win but that is where it all starts when I have a price horse. WWIT?

Oaklawn 6: 10-Manhattan Mischief hovered at around 4-1 before going off at 5-2. Lost win bet but exacta as place bet netted $22 profit in race. Good churn wager.

Aqueduct 7: Played 5-Picture Day at 9-2, win-place and keyed with two horses in exacta. Wagered 5% of bankroll and had profit of $92.80. If I just bet the whole $28 to win I would have shown profit of $133. Food for thought if I use different methodology. That said, this is part of current approach so I’m OK with the bet.

Gulfstream 11: Two solid singles on my list to start the P4 sequence. I spread in third leg and used three horses in last leg. I wagered $30 and had P4 for $1, netting profit of $127.40. I only singled both on my A ticket. Given that I used only 4% of bankroll I should have had the P4 for at least $2.

Santa Anita 10: I knew the 6-Lifeline was going to be tough but I thought that 5-Fortune of War would offer value. Played DDs from race before so I was alive to 5 and had no need to play win. Although the weakest exotic results occurred from my exacta and trifecta plays it was worth taking the chance as the 5 did run well.

Overall I churned 75% of bankroll and had a positive ROI of .57/$100. I tried to move the bankroll forward to the best of my ability.

Win bets 2-5 (%40) with positive ROI of $2.15/$1.00

Place bets 1-1 (100%) with positive ROI of $190/$1.00

Exacta as place bet 3-20 (15%) with positive ROI of .49/$1.00

I’m making adjustments each week, but having the list as a guide helps me to relax and pick my spots. If something else comes up I will play it, but for no more than 5% of the bankroll. The plan is not to chase a score but to have the flexibility to pursue a good payout if my bankroll allows it. As long as I keep a long-term view and stay relaxed I’m hopeful that I will get in a zone where I can play the bankroll and not just the races.

Every Tuesday I will write a brief "What was I thinking" review of the weekend's races. In addition I will be sending regular emails to DRF Bets customers with strategies and potential key horses to look at before the weekend races.

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