03/22/2017 12:45PM

Goldfeder: Churn to learn


How does one keep centered when grinding out daily play and seeking opportunity? For me, the best way to keep focused and stay sharp is to be involved. You need to take your shots, but you also have to learn to create your best shots.

Like anything else, success comes with work, and there are various levels of activity that will lead to profits. If you are able to churn your bankroll over and over again, you are beating the takeout. This is the first step toward getting sharp and staying sharp. Even if you go through a losing streak, the experience you get from churning will help you recover faster. Call it training. It builds stamina and confidence.

I believe in setting specific goals, and as long as I reach those levels, I get that sense of anticipation that I may be sitting on a score. However, for me the big payoffs don't just happen. They are the result of vision created by the repetition of daily play. In order to make sure that I am managing my handle correctly, I believe in putting together a game plan. This is a chronological script with a list of horses that I will pay special attention to as the race day develops. In many cases, they will be short-priced horses, but they can be used for multiple purposes, including expanding my bankroll, keys in exotics, and as confidence-builders while keeping my bankroll positively fluid.

My game plan includes competitive horses based on multiple handicapping factors. I review these contenders and determine whether they are playable based on the odds line. I use a multitude of factors to pick the horses, including the obvious ones such as speed, pace, class, etc. The subtle elements of finding vulnerable favorites include such variables as distance, trainer, and trips to name a few.

The goals are simple. Churn 50 percent to 100 percent of your bankroll daily and shoot for an average return on investment of $1.10 per $1 wagered. This is the mission, and I am very active and aggressive in pursuing these objectives. The bets are made based on projected value rate of return. Sometimes I will wager on more chalk than I would philosophically be inclined to do based on my core wagering principles. That is because my primary objective is to churn, and the value will be relative to my goals.

On March 11 my original list included 21 possible wagers. Based on price and value, I only chose to wager on these nine races.

For purposes of introduction, I only played the basic win-place pools on this date. Even though place value on shorter-priced horses might not seem logical as a strategy, for bankroll churn it is vital. Based on bankroll, the wagering choices will vary.

When looking to initially grow a bankroll, I like to keep it simple. Similar to a boxing gym where you might start your sparring routine with two left jabs followed by a right hand, I like to start out with win- place followed by a double or exacta. Keep the bet size in the vicinity of 5 percent to insure steady growth without incurring devastating losses if the day goes sour. The overall goal for the day was to wager 50 percent of my bankroll. Using these key horses, I wagered 54 percent of my bankroll with a positive ROI of 54 cents per $1 wagered.

Every Tuesday I will write a brief review of the weekend’s races. In addition, I will be sending regular e-emails to DRF Bets customers with strategies and potential key horses to look at before the weekend’s races.

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