11/21/2014 9:57AM

Giwner: Value hunting in the Breeders Crown


While for horses, drivers, trainers, and owners it all comes down to the Breeders Crown, for handicappers, regardless of the quality of racing, it all comes down to value. Time to break out my imaginary value finder. Let's dig into the Saturday Crown races. 

We kick off in race four, the 2-year-old colt trot. I'm not sure there is a horse that can be auto-eliminated in this field of ten, so the options are wide open. To bet likely favorite Pinkman I think you need at least 2-1 odds. The next tier is French Laundry, Habitat, and Muscle Diamond. Fair value probably falls in the 7-2 range on this trio. They are followed by Guess Whos Back and Uncle Lasse at 6-1. Then we have a drop off with the troika of Suit And Tie, Piercewave Hanover, and The Bank at 25-1. Finally Walter White rounds out the field at 50-1. 

[BREEDERS CROWN: Watch the Friday & Saturday cards from the Meadowlands live on DRF!]

The 2-year-old filly pace really has no value on the win end. Anything over 1-2 on JK She'salady is a gift. Anything under 10-1 on any other horse is a bad price. 

The Open Crown Pace for older combatants provides us with a small seven-horse field, but any of the players could come away with half the marbles. Taking under 5-2 on any horse in this race is foolish. I'd be satisfied with between 5-2 and 7-2 on both Foiled Again and Clear Vision. Bettor's Edge, Modern Legend and Sweet Lou fall into the 4-1 to 6-1 range. The least likely winners on paper, State Treasurer and Thinking Out Loud, require odds north of 12-1. 

The 2-year-old colt pace presents an interesting scenario in that the likely favorite In The Arsenal is probably a reasonable play at around 8-5 but could easily offer 2-1 or higher after finishing just third in his elimination. After him the possibilities are many. Traceur Hanover, Lyons Levi Lewis, Go Daddy Go, and Lost For Words all raced very well in their eliminations and are worthwhile at odds of 7-2 or higher, though I’d want at least 5-1 on Lost For Words because of the bad post. Any of the remaining quintet needs to be a minimum of 25-1 to make sense as a win bet.

The Older Mare Pace is a complete crapshoot. Running down the field in post order with acceptable odds: Camile (15-1), Charisma Hanover (25-1), Voelz Hanover (12-1), Somwherovrarainbow (4-1), Yagonnakissmeornot (5-2), Shelliscape (8-1), Krispy Apple (25-1), Anndrovette (8-1), Rocklamation (10-1), Regil Elektra (100-1), Venus Delight (30-1).

On paper I can’t give more than five horses any shot of winning the 3-year-old colt trot. Nuncio was installed as the 6-5 morning line choice and somewhere just above that number is a reasonable price; maybe 7-5. Due to his recent troubles on the track, you have to demand 5-2 or higher to take a shot with Father Patrick. E L Titan’s price should be bolstered by his outside draw. Let’s tab him at 6-1 or higher. Rounding out my top five are Odds On Amethyst (fast but freaky) and Harper Blue Chip at 25-1.

The search for a leader in the sophomore colt pacing division continues with five to six legitimate contenders vying for a Crown. Always B Miki will certainly be the post time favorite, but I fear odds approaching 6-5, and that is way off my acceptable cap of 2-1. Limelight Beach was the other elimination winner last week and his 3-1 morning line seems like a healthy fit. JK Endofanera is actually installed as an early 5-2 choice, but he hasn’t won a big race in over a month and 4-1 or higher seems more in line. McWicked has been knocking on the door lately without any wins to show for it. I’d need at least 6-1 to consider him. Others worth mentioning are Let’s Drink On It (20-1) and Luck Be Withyou (20-1).

The final Breeders Crown features a stacked field of older trotters. Betting any horse in this race at under 3-1 would seem foolish. I’d want at least that price on Market Share and Maven. Both are coming off wins and have drawn well for this final. I’ll make Creatine and Commander Crowe my second tier at a minimum price of 5-1. I’m going to place Your So Vain, Arch Madness, Archangel, Wishing Stone, and Intimidate at the 12-1 level. Finally, Flanagan Memory comes in at 30-1.

Enjoy the Breeders Crown and make sure to consider the odds before betting.

[DRF BETS: Bet the Breeders Crown Pick 4s on Saturday and get a 15% Bonus]