04/17/2007 11:00PM

Forerunner Stakes preview


Thursday, April 19, 2007
Keeneland - Race 8
1 1/8 Miles (Turf)
Forerunner Stakes
Purse $100,000.

TRUST YOUR LUCK faltered in his only prior start on turf, but that was his first start around two turns, his first race in over six months, and he was caught in a pace battle to boot. He has improved in his subsequent starts on Polytrack, and ran a good second behind next-out Blue Grass winner Dominican in the Rushaway Stakes 26 days ago. Trust Your Luck broke nicely in the Rushaway, but was rated into the pocket behind the early leader for the opening quarter-mile. He then rushed up to press the pace in the two path, and took the lead under a confident ride with 2 1/2 furlongs remaining. He outdueled one challenger, but was no match for Polytrack-loving Dominican in the lane. Trust You Luck has solid tactical speed, and may be close to a moderate pace on Thursday. At 10-1 on the morning line, he looks like a solid play for a high-percentage barn.
MOUDEZ looked very good winning his seasonal debut in fast time, and trainer Billy Mott excels with turf runners returning from short layoffs. Moudez has the look of a stone closer, however, and may need a bit more pace to adequately setup his strong stretch kick. He really improved with Lasix, and should make his presence strongly felt. CORRUPT disappointed as the 7-10 favorite in the Grindstone at Fair Grounds, but he looked very good winning his previous three starts, and the recent bullet workout over Keeneland's Polytrack indicates that he is returning to his best form. SKIP CODE's dam was a multiple winner over turf, and the gray removes the blinkers after an even performance in the Rushaway. He may have been stymied a bit by the speed-favoring nature of the Turfway Polytrack that day, and the Grade 3 winner has a bit of class.
TRIMARAN is perfect on turf, and goes out for powerhouse connections, but this will be his toughest test to date, and he may be overbet. BLUES STREET ran well to be third in the Pasadena for his first start against winners, and has been given time to acclimate to life outside of California. Like Moudez, he'll need some pace up front. BULLARA may have been in over his head in the Lane's End against Hard Spun, but should appreciate switching back to turf, and may control the pace. IN JEST is a lightly-raced runner with a world of potential, and he wheels back quickly for a normally-conservative trainer. He may have the most upside of any in the field.

1. Trust Your Luck
2. Moudez
3. Corrupt