Updated on 09/18/2011 2:34AM

Falls City Handicap preview

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November 23, 2006
Churchill Downs - Race 11
Falls City Handicap (Grade 2)
3-year-olds and upward, fillies and mares
Purse $300,000

SILMARIL made a sweeping four wide move in company with Grade 1-placed Yolanda B. Too entering the turn of the Maryland Million Distaff before shrugging off that foe to win going away. Hard-hitting mare has won 10 of 23 starts, and she defeated champion Ashado around two turns to win the Grade 3 Pimlico Breeders' Cup Distaff last season. Silmaril has good tactical speed, and projects for a nice stalking trip off SUMMERLY, ERMINE, and CRYPTOQUIP. At 8-1 on the morning line, she looks like an interesting play. Ermine freaked in the slop last time out when able to scoot out to a clear lead, and back down the pace. It's unlikely that she'll receive a similar pace scenario in this spot, and she may be overbet with that triple-digit Beyer staring everyone in the face. SEA SIREN's best races have also come when able to gain a clear early advantage, but she rated successfully to win the Green Oaks at Delta Downs last year, and Cornelio Velasquez may have her just off the early leaders. She is in excellent form, and the distance isn't a problem. JOINT EFFORT has never been out of the exacta in eight tries at Churchill Downs, but she must address some stamina concerns. She should be sharper in her second start off the layoff. CRYPTOQUIP is lightly-raced with some upside, but could get cooked up on the pace. SUMMERLY was just purchased for $3.3M by WinStar Farm, and this will likely be the last start of her career. The 2005 Kentucky Oaks winner needs to improve from a Beyer standpoint to beat these. SANGRITA has looked good for Michael Matz since returning from a March layoff, but she draws way outside, and still must prove that she can successfully handle two turns.

Selections: 1. Silmaril 2. Ermine 3. Sea Siren