10/08/2003 11:00PM

Expect no sweep in Florida series


NEW YORK - Not every track in North America can put on a show like the Breeders' Cup, but several tracks Saturday are doing their best imitations of it.

Saturday is Festival of the Sun Day at Calder Race Course with eight stakes races worth more than $1.5 million. The two richest races are the two $400,000 series finales of the Florida Stallion Stakes for 2-year-olds - the In Reality Division, and the My Dear Girl Division for fillies. Also at Calder are the $200,000 Calder Derby and the $200,000 Calder Oaks.

It's also Maryland Million Day at Laurel, with the $200,000 Maryland Million Classic topping a program of 11 stakes worth a total of $1,025,000. Meanwhile, at Great Lakes Downs, it's Michigan Sire Stakes Day with six stakes for progeny of Michigan stallions worth a total of $720,000, and there are eight stakes at Louisiana Downs for Louisiana-breds worth a total of $500,000.

On a more conventional note, the richest race in the country Saturday is the $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland, for 3-year-old fillies on the turf.

Here are three stakes I'm interested in betting:

In Reality

Sir Oscar beat All True in last month's Affirmed Division of the Florida Stallion Stakes to put himself in position to sweep the series, but I don't think he's going to beat All True again this time. I'm going with All True in this spot.

All True finished strongly in the Affirmed, gaining five lengths on Sir Oscar in the final furlong. In fact, not only was All True going faster than Sir Oscar at the finish, he galloped out much stronger, and well in front of his rival, suggesting the stretch-out to two turns will be more in his favor than Sir Oscar's.

All True was 55-1 in the Affirmed, largely because of a running line in the first leg of this series, the Dr. Fager, that looks much uglier on paper than it really was. In the Dr. Fager, All True broke slowly, and then had to take up sharply into the stretch when almost put over the rail. Unfortunately, All True won't be anything close to 55-1 Saturday, especially with Jerry Bailey named to ride, but he should still be a square ticket.

My Dear Girl

Just as I expect All True to turn the tables on Sir Oscar in the In Reality, I'm taking Chatter Chatter to deny French Village her attempted sweep of this series in this race.

French Village was 1-5 when she beat Chatter Chatter last time out in the Susan's Girl division of this series. But French Village ran as straight as a string to prevail, and Chatter Chatter, who was still a maiden at the time, would have been even closer had she not ducked in sharply in upper stretch, forcing her rider to steady her.

In any event, Chatter Chatter subsequently won her maiden by more than 23 lengths, earning a best-in-the-field Beyer Speed Figure of 93 while gaining valuable two-turn experience that should help her Saturday. Moreover, Chatter Chatter demonstrated in her front-running maiden romp that she could be the speed of this field if she chooses, but she can also rate off the pace, as she showed in the Susan's Girl, making her doubly dangerous.

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup

It may be folly picking against Indy Five Hundred, who not only walloped subsequent Flower Bowl winner Dimitrova in the Garden City Breeders' Cup last time out, but earned a solid 107 Beyer Figure doing it. But, I will take a shot with Casual Look.

After chasing a tremendous filly in Islington and Mezzo Soprano in her last two starts in Europe, Casual Look should find this, her first start in the United States, a considerably easier race. That is not to say Casual Look hasn't been competitive with good company overseas, because she has been. In June, she defeated 14 opponents in the Group 1 English Oaks at Epsom, with Yesterday as her immediate victim. Yesterday had previously won the Irish 1000 Guineas, and she was narrowly beaten after a tough trip just last Sunday in the Group 1 Prix de l'Opera at Longchamp.