08/15/2001 11:00PM

Evaluating the Euros


Silvano, Di Moi Oui, and Mizzen Mast are the three European invaders to be most wary of in Saturday's Arlington Million Festival. Eight foreign-trained horses will line up in the three Grade 1 races, all of which shape up as great betting contests.

This is an analysis of the chances of the eight Europeans. Timeform ratings (in parentheses) are the best earned by that horse at the distance.

Arlington Million

Caitano (114) is an inveterate world traveler and past master at 1 1/2 miles, but he has won only once since June 1999 and that was in Istanbul. Devoid of early speed, he is likely to be outpaced and well behind early at this shorter distance, at which he has been soundly beaten twice by Silvano in the last six months.

Compton Bolter (112) was a lackluster fifth in last year's Secretariat. He is 3 for 11 since then but those victories came in an allowance, a listed race on dirt, and, most recently, in a listed 1 1/2-mile handicap, a strange way to prep for this fast-paced Grade 1 at 1 1/4 miles.

Muakaad (118) is a lightly raced 4-year-old by 1993 Million third-place finisher Muhtarram. Experienced at the distance, over which he is 4 for 5, he will try to lay close to the pace, but that is likely to be faster than anything he has experienced in Ireland. Successful vs. Group 3 types such as Bach and Bonnard, he will do well to place behind a Grade 1 type like Bienamado.

Silvano (125) has been aimed at the Million since a successful spring campaign in the Far East. A full brother to Germany's leading 3-year-old, Sabiango, he holds a decision over Jim and Tonic at the distance and will be very dangerous if Andreas Suborics can have him in striking position at the quarter pole.

Beverly D. Stakes

Di Moi Oui (111), or "Tell Me Yes" in English, has had the Beverly D. on her dance card since embarking on her 4-year-old season in April. All of her 2001 races have been against males, against whom she has acquitted herself well, chasing subsequent Group 3 winner Slew the Red last time in a Longchamp Group 3. If she can avoid being outpaced early, she will give herself a chance to run down Astra.

Secretariat Stakes

Aldwych (111) is as consistent as they come, having earned a Timeform rating of 111 in his last four starts. He looked good last time when second to 2000 Epsom Derby runner-up Sakhee, but his tendency to rankness and slow starts leaves him with questions to answer.

Mizzen Mast (114) came into his own two back when he wired a Group 3 field at Longchamp. Last time he just failed to hold off the talented French Derby runner-up Chichicastenango in the 1 1/4-mile Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris, setting a pace that led to a track record. While he must be on or near the lead to do his best, the booking of Jerry Bailey suggests that Criquettet Head-Maarek and the Wertheimer brothers are very serious about winning this race.

Snowstorm makes his first start at 1 1/4 miles, cutting back from 1 1/2 miles. Shows a nice effort behind Storming Home in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot, but disappointed last time when fourth in the 1 1/2-mile Group 3 Gordon Stakes.