11/14/2013 4:37PM

Dover: Sunday 11/17 Analysis


Best Bet: NUNCIO (3rd)


Race 1

(4) MA CHERE HALL has an edge in every way. She is fastest and should be on the lead in a jiffy. (6) THISTLE DHU was stuck in the second tier last time. I’d expect Miller to have her closer to the front this week. (2) TIME TO KILL is still looking for her first win of the year and it seems unlikely it will happen on Sunday; trifecta spot is possible.

Race 2

(3) CARRACCI HANOVER came up flat in his elimination but on paper he is as fast as or faster than this group. There are three or four that can win and I’ll roll the dice in his direction. (2) MCWICKED raced very well last week despite having not raced since September 23; big chance. (1) STEVENSVILLE has a chance, but is likely to be overbet with Tetrick driving this week. (7) ALL BETS OFF has a bad post but can leave; tough call.

Race 3

(4) NUNCIO should cruise to an easy win. (3) ANOTHER TRANSCRIPT might be a step slower than a couple of the others in here, but he can get away close to the action and shake free at a decent price. (6) WELL BUILT seems to be moving in the right direction; post hurts.

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Race 4

(1) CASINO BAGS CARLO has some ability. He can protect the rail and pull off the upset. (4) HAWKER looks fastest on paper but seems to be going in the wrong direction. (3) BY A NOGGIN could get a piece with a smooth trip.

Race 5

This race is a crapshoot and any of seven seems to be in with a chance. (6) INSTANT RESPECT is coming off a solid effort and has the early speed to work out a trip. (2) MY LADY DAY was in a tough spot last week after starting from the second tier. Her prior efforts put her close enough to these to upset. (7) ALI BLUE dug in to win her elimination and you know she will get an aggressive steer. (4) SOMETHININCREDIBLE took a step in the right direction last time.

Race 6

(6) GO BIG SPENDER picks up an aggressive driver in Pierce and I’m not crazy about the favorites. (4) SOLACE was awful last time and took a month off to recuperate; better now? (5) LEWIEBYALENGTH is off a better effort.

Race 7

(5) JONIGOLD should be in a stiff battle with (1) SEBOOMOOK FOOL YAH for the top spot. Both are capable; either could win. (3) SANTA BABY has a chance if allowed to steal away on the engine.

Race 8

(4) IM WON RUM WISER should win for fun despite a very strange name. (6) TREASURE VALLEY looks to be a clear second best on paper. (1) MISS MAJA gets an improved post tonight.

Race 9

(1) SHAKE IT CERRY is a very talented young trotting filly that should have her way with this group. (8) STRUCK BY LINDY would be the clear bottom half of a $6 exacta if she drew better. Now you’ll get $10 on the exacta and have to hope Miller works out the trip. (4) NOON TEA PARTY flashed some dangerous speed last time.

Race 10

(7) VEGAS VACATION comes off what I consider to be a throw-out mile. He draws inside of (8) SUNSHINE BEACH and will have every opportunity to win his first race since the Jug. The latter is razor sharp and a deserving favorite. (1) DOCTOR BUTCH was highly regarded earlier this year. This is his second start back from a freshening and he could be ready to peak.

Race 11

(4) SHEBESTINGIN is the best filly in this race. If she brings her best game, she wins. (1) MS CAILA J FRA raced well following the layoff and may have finally put her issues in the back mirror. (3) JERSEYLICIOUS has proven to be one step behind the top one this year.

Race 12

(1) ELITE AWARDS has won five straight and should make it six without much trouble. (6) ABOVE THE STORM looks like the logical player to close out a $5 exacta. (5) JAZZ DIRECTOR could be a surprise package. He hails from a solid barn and gets a top driver.

Race 13

(3) SMILIN ELI got things his own way last week and got the job done. I’m not running to the windows on him at 3-5, but he looks best. (7) ALL LAID OUT could be an interesting price play. Miller will have to send him, but if he gets a clean trip, watch out! (2) POSSESSED FASHION knows how to get into the number; using underneath.

Race 14

(5) CRUSHED AGAIN doesn’t have much competition in here. Only thing that could get her in trouble is an ultra-conservative drive. (3) HENS PLAYMATE could get loose on the lead in this spot and set slow fractions. (1) MOMMOMS LITTLE C should save ground and get a nice piece.

Race 15

(3) JK LULLABYE hasn’t raced in 10 months but simply looks much the best If he is even a shell of his former self. (7) STONEBRIDGE FLAIR gets a driver switch to Pierce. (2) ONERY LUCY draws better, gets a nice driver change and makes her third start off the layoff; things to like.