11/05/2014 4:49PM

Dover: Matron Stakes Analysis for Thursday 11/6


Race 1 - $203,800 Matron—2YO Filly Trot

(7) WILD HONEY was originally going to be a bet against for me, but then I noticed she isn’t eligible to the Breeders Crown. That means despite four weeks of action, I have to assume she is primed and ready for what could be her last race of the year. (2) BRIGHT BABY BLUES showed two starts back that she can trot with these and the price will be right. (3) SMEXI upset at 78-1 in the rich Goldsmith Maid. For me, she is a bet against until I see more consistency.

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Race 2 - $237,500 Matron—2YO Colt & Gelding Trot

(4) CRUZADO DELA NOCHE has quietly exhibited some ability and loved being on the lead in Lexington last time. He’ll be overlooked in the wagering and doesn’t seem far behind this group right now. (2) MUSCLE DIAMOND has displayed plenty of talent and only needs a smooth trip to score an upset. (6) HABITAT saw his win streak end in the Valley Victory; clear player. (5) UNCLE LASSE races well virtually every start.

Race 6 - $199,600 Matron—2YO Filly Pace

(3) BETTOR BE STEPPIN was starting every week and facing some top competition along the way. Now she has been freshened up and gets a post edge on the most likely winners. (8) SASSA HANOVER has won 8-of-10 starts to begin her career. She is the clear filly to beat but is hampered by the outside post. (7) SOUTHWIND ROULETTE seems to have lost a bit of the form she had at the end of the summer, but the talent is there. (1) IDEAL NUGGETS has only missed the board once in 12 career starts.

Race 7 - $193,200 Matron—2YO Colt & Gelding Pace

(3) IN THE ARSENAL is the “now” horse in the division. The son of American Ideal has serious potential and deserves the call each week until he shows signs of weakness. (1) TOMY TERROR has finished at least second in each of his 10 career starts. I have to expect aggressive handling from the inside post. (2) CARTOON DADDY lured driver Yannick Gingras off (6) YANKEE BOUNTY, who has only lost once in nine starts. That should tell you something.

Race 8 - $160,950 Matron—3YO Filly Trot

(5) SHAKE IT CERRY was simply amazing in her win at Hoosier last week. She sprinted home from a tough spot and bested another top filly. I’m not sure this gal is beatable right now. (2) CEE BEE YES gets a nice post shift this week and should be sitting on or just off the lead. (3) LIFETIME PURSUIT hasn’t put in many bad races this year and is an obvious threat.

Race 10 - $200,350 Matron—3YO Colt & Gelding Trot

(1) FATHER PATRICK hasn’t done very well tracking horses lately and I’m guessing he’ll be placed on the engine this week. He outdraws main rival Nuncio and should use that to his advantage. (5) DATSYUK is in a good spot to leave hard and sit a good trip at a big price. (8) NUNCIO would probably be considered the one to beat from a better post; very dangerous.

Race 11 - $186,550 Matron—3YO Colt & Gelding Pace

(1) ALL BETS OFF has been one of the best sophomore pacing colts this year but seems to go under the radar. He outdraws his rivals tonight and will be sitting no worse than a pocket trip. (3) MCWICKED was flat as a pancake in the Messenger last time. I’m going to ignore that race and expect improvement. (2) LUCK BE WITHYOU couldn’t stay with All Bets Off last time but has the ability.

Race 12 - $179,200 Matron—3YO Filly Pace

(3) ACT NOW has turned the corner in a big way lately. She may be too sharp to beat right now. (5) WEEPER is one of the more frustrating fillies I have picked lately. When are they going to turn her loose on the lead? (1) FANCY DESIRE isn’t as good as she was earlier in the year but can still get a good piece of the exotics.

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