11/02/2006 12:00AM

Distaff analysis



Longshot front-runner HEALTHY ADDICTION got no help at the draw (post 3), because she prefers an outside trip. But this race lacks a star. Healthy Addiction is a Grade 1 winner with 8 wins her last 13 starts, a history of outrunning her odds, and the 104 Beyer Figures she earned over the summer are close to par for this. If she can somehow get to the outside or even get clear, she can outrun her price in a wide-open race. She will be in position to win turning for home. HAPPY TICKET had a nightmare trip in the Spinster. Her previous bests are good enough. FLEET INDIAN has won eight straight, and overcame trouble last out. LEMONS FOREVER and HOLLYWOOD STORY are longshot closers capable of making it a memorable trifecta. Both will be closing at big prices. PINE ISLAND will be finishing at a relatively short price.


HEALTHY ADDICTION dueled through a fast pace and edged clear last time at Santa Anita. The 91 Beyer she earned was not impressive, but she is capable of a much better performance. Rate her on the pace figures and final times from her best recent races and she is capable of the upset. FLEET INDIAN has won eight straight races. The concern is that she is bound to tail off sometime. She showed a sign of vulnerability when she was all out to win the Beldame by only a head last time. It is also a concern that the pace figures from some of her recent races have been slow. BALLETTO almost beat FLEET INDIAN last time, and will be a prime contender from off the pace once again. PINE ISLAND is lightly raced and will be dangerous if she continues to improve.


PINE ISLAND was thrown to the lions early on, and was beaten less than a length in the Mother Goose and CCA Oaks despite making rookie mistakes. She was noticeably more polished picking off rivals far turn and running down a loose speed horse in Alabama, and showed impressive fortitude coming back three weeks later to take the Gazelle; designed freshening, plenty of pace to set things up. SPUN SUGAR has a form pattern that's hard to miss, after running a career top Beyer to out-game HAPPY TICKET with a come-again performance in the Apple Blossom second off a layoff, and virtually matching that number to out-game BALLETTO in the Go for Wand second off a layoff; set off Poly prep. FLEET INDIAN figures close with Spun Sugar on the basis of gritty win over Balletto in the Beldame, in which she showed she can rate; contends in wide-open affair.


SPUN SUGAR's odd performance last time out in the Spinster is best overlooked, as it could be due to Polytrack, or the fact she was coming off a two-month layoff, or both. Her two prior efforts around two turns were on conventional dirt tracks, and they were game wins in the Go for Wand and Apple Blossom. Her dull recent running line should help her price, and she is taken to upset. FLEET INDIAN is a deserving favorite, having won eight straight and proving most recently in the Beldame that she can rate off the pace in a big race and still win. But the Beldame was her closest call during her streak, suggesting vulnerability. BALLETTO is tough when she gets an honest pace to rally into, as she showed in recent narrow losses to the top two. But it has been more than two years since she actually won a race.