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Dick Jerardi: Preakness a tough one to figure
Oxbow’s Preakness resulted in the slowest winning time since 1961. Seemed on the surface like a very weak race. So how did Oxbow earn a Beyer Speed Figure of 106, better than Orb’s highly praised Kentucky Derby (104 Beyer Figure) and the third highest figure for a Triple Crown race in the last five years?
The time of a race is influenced as much by the speed of the track as by the ability of the horses, and the Pimlico track on Saturday – though officially labeled fast – was very slow compared with days of other Preaknesses. When Curlin ran the 1 3/16 miles in 1:53.46 in his 2007 Preakness win and earned a 111 Beyer, the surface was three full seconds faster than the one Oxbow raced over when he ran it in 1:57.54.
The data from Pimlico last Saturday also strongly suggests the track slowed down even more for the final race of the day. And it might have been slowing down before that, just in time for the Preakness.
Andrew Beyer makes the figures for the Maryland circuit and readily admits that Saturday was a day with conflicting data.
Beyer said he was writing his column on deadline and just taking a cursory glance at the data, “and I wrote that this is one of the slowest Preaknesses ever.’’
By Sunday, when he took a longer look at the data, including the race after the Preakness, which was run much slower than would have been anticipated, Beyer came to a different conclusion.
The dirt races did not fit into the neat mathematical box that makes us feel most comfortable. The third race, a five-furlong race for 2-year-olds, was especially slow. So was the 13th race.
Making Beyer Figures is a mathematical exercise in trying to determine the speed of a racing surface. On the vast majority of racing days, the times of the races relate to each other. Under that circumstance, assigning a track variant is relatively simple. You compile the differences in times (we have converted those times into points) from what was expected. You average those times and you have your variant. You then add or subtract from the raw times and assign a speed figure for each race. The surface might be faster than normal or slower, but you know what it is.
Preakness Day was the kind of day that turns the science of making figures into art. And, with art, you have some doubt.
There was a significant headwind in the homestretch as the horses were warming up for the Preakness. Perhaps, a similar wind could have accounted for how slowly the horses finished in that five-furlong race. Like the Preakness, when the horses would have raced in the stretch for approximately 800 yards of a two-turn race that is 2,090 yards, the horses in the third race would have raced longer in the homestretch than the backstretch.
In six-furlong and 1 1/16-mile races at Pimlico, horses run approximately the same amount on the backstretch as they do in the homestretch.
The leader in the 2-year-old race, a horse who eventually finished second, ran the last eighth of a mile in 14.4 seconds, a really slow final 220 yards.
Oxbow’s first quarter-mile into that wind was 23.94 seconds. His last three-sixteenths of a mile was 19.4 seconds. Both fractions were head-shakingly slow without any context. The wind had to be a factor, as it certainly was in Oxbow’s final time.
The 13th race was also far slower than expected. It is unclear what happened there, but it was definitely slow.
The Preakness specifically was tricky because Oxbow clearly ran the race of his life, but, with an optimal circumstance (easy lead, no pressure) he was supposed to run the race of his life. Oxbow is now 3 for 11 lifetime. With a clear lead, he is 3 for 3. Without a clear lead, he is 0 for 8. That is not likely a coincidence.
The key horse in the Preakness was Itsmyluckyday, who finished second to Oxbow. Just as trainer Eddie Plesa had said, the colt hated the slop at the Kentucky Derby, when he ran 20 lengths off his best form. In the colt’s two January wins at Gulfstream Park, Itsmyluckyday earned figures of 102 and 104. He certainly appeared to run back to that form in the Preakness when he valiantly made a run at the loose-on-the-lead winner. With Oxbow’s 106, Itsmyluckyday earned a 103.
In a sometimes imperfect speed figure world, that put the race into rational perspective, including an adjustment for the effect of the wind.
“We don’t have a magic [wind] formula,’’ Beyer said.
We do have common sense. And we have hindsight when these horses run next and into the summer.
“There is no doubt that the track got much slower for the 13th race,” Beyer said. “We have no way of knowing if that slowing-down started with the Preakness. My conclusion was no, but, if it did, the [Preakness] number could have even been higher if the slowing down process started at the 12th.”
Now, why did Orb run so far off his Derby form? That is another question that has nothing to do with figures. The colt never looked comfortable on the inside, especially with horses just ahead and just to his outside. The inside was definitely not the place to be on Saturday. The pace scenario changed completely from the Derby. Instead of the suicidal pace attended by so many horses, Oxbow was loose in moderate fractions.
If you don’t think pace matters, consider that Orb beat Goldencents by nearly 50 lengths in the Derby, a half-length in the Preakness. And there was a nearly 19-length turnaround between Oxbow and Orb in two weeks.
And a better figure earned by a horse who, strictly by looks, appeared not to have run as strong a race as Orb had run in the Derby.
“Making this [Preakness] figure was not an exact science that we would like, but I believe if we are wrong on this number, we’re wrong by being low,’’ Beyer said. “It was an interesting exercise in fig-making.”
1)Beyers are opinions nothing more 2) Orb couldnt duplicate his dream trip derby
pace makes the race simple as that.rosario moved too soon and on the deep deep inside orb was doomed at the 6f pole,not one of joels best rides
A outstanding horse will run in the wind or not. wind is just excuse.wind was blowing to hard didn't catch any fish. What a joke the horse is good enough to run anytime or he isn't.
Only a fool nocks Andy. He will not remember me; however I grew up on Suffox Downs. I thought I new racing way back when two kids from Harvard ran around with numbers in their hands, scratching on pads and paper, hiding in corners around the track. I was a guy (actually a punk kid) who was in the know? With the high rollers, Wiseguys they were called then and we knew when the fix was in... Those ugly little brats taught me the fix sometime did not matter; it was "speed" something about that speed... It took me about three years to learn what they were saying; however I have had very few losing years since, the 70 all due to an ugly skinny runt called Andy and his number friend.. You should listen to that old man he still has a few things left to say...
This article is a bit of a laugher. Wind? Really? Any and every figure maker adjusts for wind, he just doesn't know it. If you make pace and speed figures, a strong headwind down the backside will result in a slow pace variant in a sprint. It can turn an EVEN track into a SLOW 3 track for the pace variant. Who cares if it was the wind or the resiliency of the track that made them run slower...what's important is that they did run slow and that will be represented by the daily track variant and incorporated into the days' figures.
Tracks are clearly faster or slower on some days. I just question the preciseness of a daily variant. A single digit sample size is too small.
Really guys.. if you are going to talk about the "significant wind do much", would it so hard as to get average wind figures from that date and add them to the discussion? You also have to understand that wind also aids the horses when they are going around a 2 turn track.. unlike quarter horse racing, which is in one straight line...
The beyer had some advantage when it first came out.....but after a few months that advantage is gone because all the studious handicapper started using it....
To: Alex Stevens - Andrew Beyer has written 4 books, not 3. 'Picking Winners,' My 50,000 Year, The Winning Horseplayer, & Beyer On Speed. And yes, the Beyerfigs do lack one essential ingredient and he probably knows what it is, but maybe doesn't know how to fix it yet. When he does he will be about 10 years behind. For now, his mark must remain, "INCOMPLETE". But get the book you are missing, he does have a "way" about him and his books are always worthwhile. Meanwhile, a NASCAR winner recently ran a 594 "Beyer."
Andrew Beyer's time has passed, racing has changed, you just can't keep living on reputation alone. The number is now the most worthless number there is in the Racing Form. Handicapping skills has past by Andy years ago.