04/19/2006 11:00PM

Derby Watch rankings for April 21



Who's Hot, Who's Not


Sinister Minister, who roared to victory in the Blue Grass Stakes last Saturday at Keeneland, is the most significant of the four newcomers to this week's top 25 of Derby Watch. His race so impressed Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form's national handicapper, that Watchmaker installed Sinister Minister at 15-1 on his Kentucky Derby future line, making him the co-sixth choice in the race. Sacred Light was put back on the list this week because he still has an outside chance to make the field if there are enough defections above him on the graded-stakes earnings list. He is 40-1. Showing Up, who runs in the Lexington Stakes this Saturday at Keeneland, is 50-1, and Blue Grass runner-up Storm Treasure comes in at 60-1.


Four horses were dropped from the list. Discreet Cat, First Samurai, and High Cotton were removed from Derby consideration this past week by their connections. Strong Contender, who was third in the Blue Grass in his stakes debut, is simply too far down the graded-stakes earnings list to make the Derby field, so he was dropped. Bluegrass Cat, a disappointing fourth in the Blue Grass, is now 30-1 on Watchmaker's line after being 15-1 a week ago. Watchmaker also handed out his longest prices yet, 200-1, to both Seaside Retreat and With a City following their uninspiring efforts last weekend.


There are 25 horses on the list, and only 20 can run in the Derby, so there's little left. Greeley's Legacy or Hemingway's Key could leapfrog onto the list with a victory in the Lexington.