05/01/2003 11:00PM

Derby runner profile: Ten Cents a Shine

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STRENGTHS: Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won the Derby four times, two times with longshots (Thunder Gulch, 1995, and Charismatic, 1999). But, Ten Cents a Shine's odds will rightfully exceed the prices on those two winners, who actually won Derby preps.

The only track he has thrived at is Churchill Downs. In addition to winning his maiden and finishing a close second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill last November, he has put in some razor-sharp workouts at five furlongs since his Blue Grass debacle.

WEAKNESSES: His current form is atrocious; his combined margin of defeat in his last three starts is nearly 81 lengths. Recent Beyer Speed Figures of 64, 78, and 34 aren't good enough to win some claiming races at major tracks. Even his best Beyers (low 90's) do not rise to the standard of being Derby material.

While there are a limited sample of runners with similar pedigrees, his 125 Tomlinson figure for the 1 1/4-mile distance is terribly low and nowhere near suitable.

Though two Ohio-breds have been favored in the Derby over the last two decades (Air Forbes Won, 1982, and Harlan's Holiday, 2002), no Buckeye has captured the roses since Wintergreen in 1909.

STRATEGY: The first three races of his career were his best, and he rallied from well behind the pace in each. In the Kentucky Jockey Club, he made up 20 lengths to briefly lead the field at the eighth pole before losing by a length.

VALUE: Deserves to be the longest shot on the board based on recent form, and while Lukas fans will undoubtedly be more inclined to back Scrimshaw, there may be enough supporters out there to keep this colt's odds below what they should be.

PEDIGREE PROFILE

SIRE LINE: The best runner sired by Devil's Bag, Devil His Due was a stakes winner at 3 and developed into a major handicap horse at 4 and 5. As a stallion, Devil His Due has produced horses who have been effective at middle distances. Devil His Due's grandsire Halo and great grandsire Hail to Reason have been very successful sires in the Triple Crown. Halo sired 1983 Derby winner Sunny's Halo, 1989 Derby winner Sunday Silence, and 1994 Derby runner-up Strodes Creek. Halo's son Saint Ballado (a full brother to Devil's Bag) sired 1997 Derby runner-up Captain Bodgit. Hail to Reason sired 1967 Derby winner Proud Clarion, 1965 Belmont winner Hail to All, and 1970 Preakness winner Personality.

FEMALE FAMILY: Aunt Mottz placed in a restricted stakes, and 1974 Wood Memorial Stakes winner Flip Sal and the top-class Clem come from this line. Clem won the Arlington Classic and Withers Stakes at 3 and the Woodward Stakes and United Nations Handicap at 4.

PEDIGREE PATTERN: Ten Cents a Shine is inbred 3x3 to the influential Halo, but this pedigree has more speed than stamina influences, including Devil's Bag, Raise a Cup, Double Jay, Roman, and Fleet Nasrullah.

- Pedigree profile by Lauren Stich