09/17/2012 4:29PM

Delaware Co. Fair: Wednesday 9/19 Analysis


Best Bet: OASIS DREAM (8th)     Spot Play: DARENA HANOVER (13th)

Race 1

(3) NEAR THE LIMIT finds a field with no standouts and has the early zip to take advantage. (5) RITZ TRACKER was in over his head last time; prior form was fine; adds Miller. (2) BUCK I TIME has a shot if he can save ground and find clear sailing on the final turn.

Race 2

(5) MY GHOST BI catches a pretty questionable bunch and should be firing down the road. (4) PLAIN JESSE seems capable if he behaves. (1) GLOBAL POWER shows some wins on the fair circuit; not impossible, I guess.

Race 3

(1) BROTHER NICK hooks up with Tyler Smith, who is having a nice year. You have to think they’ll be looking to control the action. (2) JAILHOUSE FUNK has been stuck with outside posts and his only inside slot resulted with him getting impeded. (8) FUTURE NIGHT TRAIN certainly looks competitive on paper. With a bit of luck he could spice up the exotics.

Race 4

(7) MIKES HOPE won here on Sunday from post 8. This guy looks like the speed of the speed and should get the jump on them in this once-around event. (8) SAUCY BROWN has been facing slightly tougher competition in recent races and could sneak into the number. (2) KEY WESTERN hasn’t raced since February but fits on ability. Trainer driving is a minus. (4) LAVISH LIFE is not as bad as his last race would indicate.

Race 5

(7) ROCK N JESSIE looks to be the most talented trotter in this OBC division. The post presents some issues, but he should be able to find a seat early and grind out the win for Gingras. (1) COUNT ME IN has gotten very aggressive from the cones in the past and seems likely to make his presence felt in a big way. (2) CODY COY needs a smooth trip and some luck in the stretch.

Race 6

(2) MONEY AND ME has tackled some tough foes in her seven starts this year and gets a huge inside post advantage on some of the other main competitors. (6) ANDIE SOPHIA swept the field impressively at Lexington but hasn’t shown much speed. It is hard to say how he will handle the smaller track and the crowded field. (7) DEWEY LANE has displayed some early speed and could be interesting at a decent price if she minds her manners.

Race 7

(1) MASTER’S FLY TRAP seems unlikely to be doing any yielding from the cones. David Miller chose #3 but Brett is a strong substitute. (2) AL BROWN has been racing pretty well and gets a switch to Campbell this week; upset chance. (3) JESSE’S TOUCH certainly rates a chance; can’t toss.

Race 8

(3) OASIS DREAM jumps off the page as a standout in this field; hard to deny. (4) AMERICAN SAINT has some early zip and might be able to work her way into a sweet trip. (5) CANADIAN JUSTICE has been racing well but must find a way to get involved. I can’t see her rallying by the top choice from behind cover. (8) UPFRONT BYE BYE sports some nice lines but an awful post.

Race 9

(3) ENTICING BEAUTY has been fairly competitive lately and gets a nice driver change to Miller for today’s event. (1) ELEGANT MYSTIQUE has been stuck with outside posts of late; Pierce drives. (6) TARPON SPRINGS has more form than it might seem on paper.

Race 10

(6) MAVEN is one of the best trotting fillies in the country. There are some obstacles today (post, speed to her inside), but she should overcome. (4) BLUFF comes off a win. She should be flying to the front. (3) MISS CHIP K can certainly get a decent piece with a reasonable trip.

Race 11

(3) BINGO QUEEN has surely displayed some life in her recent races. She may be taking on mostly older foes but seems to have more ability than those contenders. (1) MYSTICAL ESCAPADE was making only her first start of the year last time and got stuck with an outside post. Notice that career mark at Lexington last year, which is the fastest any of these has ever travelled. (9) SCREAMIN DREAMIN sports a nice record and a new driver; maybe.

Race 12

(7) AMERICAN JEWEL got back on the winning track last time and is far and away the best in here when she is feeling right. Off her latest effort, I’d say she will overcome any trip. (1) MOONLIT DRAGON has the rail and a quick turn of speed off the gate. Miller should be taking charge. (3) BETTOR B LUCKY will have to grind out a place in the final first up or hope for cover. If she can easily get around the former, I’ll be impressed. (2) PERSISTENT certainly merits a look and could make noise with the right trip.

Race 13

(5) DARENA HANOVER is guaranteed to be flying off the wings of the gate, that’s how Yannick usually drives her. Let’s give her the narrow call over (7) ECONOMY TERROR, who comes off a huge mile but hasn’t been as consistent as I would like. (1) ANGEL SCENT was a respectable third last time in the Simcoe and Wallace isn’t shipping her down for the fresh Ohio air. (2) ROCKAROUND SUE could be a key to the race if she elects to bring out her early speed.

Race 14

(2) THAT FRISKE FEELIN suffered his first career defeat in the biggest race of his life. The early speedster should be able to get back on track on this speed-favoring surface. (4) FEELIN LIKA WINNER was the giant killer that beat the top one last time; major player. (8) DUSTO has some talent and could be there if they mix it up on the front.

Race 15

(1) TESLA didn’t have much of a chance from post 8 in a tough field last time. At 10 for 17 lifetime, she likes to win. I’ll take a shot. (11) ROSE RUN NELLIE looks like the clear one to beat, but it is hard for me to take a short price on a horse starting from the second tier in an 11-horse field at Delaware. (3) LADY AT BAT comes off a good effort and sports a win here last year. (4) WARDON’S DAUGHTER has high early speed.

Race 16

Much of the result of the $177,630 Jugette second heat is dependent on the outcome of the first heat. That said, I like American Jewel as my top choice.

Race 17

(5) DALCROFT BIG GUY got Chris Page’s call to drive over a few others and has some good recent form. (4) SUPERVISION almost wired them last time. (8) A PATCHY SUN drops way down but drew post eight; tough call.


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