09/03/2013 3:00PM

Del Mar: Michael Hammersly's Analysis September 4, 2013

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Michael Hammersly's Analysis [BEST BET: Diamond Bachelor (3rd race)]

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1 GYPSY ROBIN dueled and fizzled here July 18 but there are 2 major mitigating circumstances: first, she was making her first start in 9 months and 2nd, she was facing Reneesgotzip, a monster who may well be the early favorite for the G1 BC F&M Sprint. She faces no one like that here and off some superb works since looks ready to go. That July 18 loss was her first in 5 tries on synthetic footing. WEDNESDAY comes here in sharp form (won 3 of last 5) and while she's not as quick as the top pick does have enough speed to keep 'ROBIN in her sights so if that gal falters this gal may be in the right spot to take advantage. CURVY CAT was no factor in her last 2 here but those came after a couple months off an don both occasions she was chasing the aforementioned beast, Reneesgotzip. Closer Looks >>
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2 EXPLOSIVE ARGUMENT just posted a 22-1 upset over a few of these for $40K here Aug. 11 and there seems no reason to believe she can't do it again. That was her first run in 2 months and her first run here, so it shows she likes this place, and a big bullet 3f move here Aug. 31 (:34) says she holds her edge. LADY ROSAMOND ran on smartly as the 8-5 favorite to finish 2nd to the top pick in that Aug. 11 race. That was a nice bounce-back after a couple so-so stakes tries so she certainly fits here. She blew the start in that Aug. 11 race and had shown ample speed in prior races, so she can be in it from the get-go. ROVEING PATROL takes a significant drop for her first start in over 6 months. She's worked well and it's most encouraging Gutierrez takes the call when he likely could have stayed on BAS, who he's ridden in her last 7 starts including a win here Aug. 14. Closer Looks >>
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3 DIAMOND BACHELOR was much ballyhooed prior to his debut in a turf route here Aug. 8 and the advance warning was spot on as he pressed the pace, took over and drew off. He's worked well since and looks like a comer for Biancone. He cost a pretty penny, too ($570K) so there are expectations here. STATION HOUSE likewise came out smokin' in his debut, also a turf route, here July 24, leading all the way to win well. Mandella doesn't usually debut them going long, and if he does they don't usually fire big so this guy has talent. ONTOLOGY as good enough to be a sharp 2nd in the Hollywood Juvenile July 13 and 4th in the G2 Best Pal here Aug. 4. so he has a touch of class. He tries grass for the first time and a route for the first time, but he's bred top and bottom for both. Closer Looks >>
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4 FINAL STEP, on the AE list, brings plenty of strong works into his debut for Miller who continues his strong work first time out (23%). It's noteworthy, too, that the 2yo colt is Gomez's 1st call. Two of his 3 sibs are winners including Impass (4 wins, $65K).SAWYER'S HILL is another who's been impressive in the a.m. including a bullet 5fs here Aug. 18 (:59). BIG MEDICINE MAN acts like a runner for Harty (bullet :46.40 here Aug. 19) and lures Bejarano for this first run. Three of his 4 sibs to race are winners including Red Lead (13 wins, $795K, multiple SW and G3 SP in the Southwest). KARMA KING has worked strongly for this first run (bullet :59.20 here Aug. 23) for a trainer (Dollase) who's been superb first out (8 for last 22, 36%). He's Gomez's 2nd call. Closer Looks >>
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5 ROMAN THREAT has been dazzling in 3 starts, winning 2 of them, finishing 2nd to then-sprint champ Amazombie in the other, earning Beyers of 106, 104 and 107. Only trouble is, that all came in the winter/spring of 2012 - he hasn't been seen since. The good news is he's working splendidly for Baffert, who of course is superb off the bench, and while he drops it's nice to see he does NOT return with a tag attached. That being said, it's a tough spot and a guy like CHILOQUIN with his recency edge may take advantage. He was a sharp 2nd to No Silent (last seen dueling and fading to 11th in the G2 Pat O'Brien). He's done good work here. SO BRILLIANT gives Baffert 2 big looks at this as he came back after 8 months to win a strong sprint at BHP June 30 (102 Beyer). RAIL TRIP has loads of back-class and while he may not be that horse any longer he can still summon up enough to beat these. Closer Looks >>
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6 Not only has MAGIC CHANNEL made a super impression since coming from England (won his first 2 U.S. starts, both over this course this meet) but off a strong $50K win Aug. 11 Hollendorfer saw fit to claim him. It's most enocuraging Hollendorfer does not risk losing him for a tag here. QUIET FORCE finished strongly to win his debut on the SA hillside grass course Feb. 23. He hasn't run since but Mandella isn't in the Hall of Fame by accident so he can get 'em ready. Besides the layoff it's first time vs. winners and first routing so there are hurdles, but Bejarano rides and the works say this guy is doing well. TE RAPA, on the AE, looks very much back on track with the return to racing here. Three of his 4 wins have come on this course. Closer Looks >>
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7 CRYSTALLINE INDY blew the start in her turf sprint debut at BHP July 13 and was no factor. Remember, that was just her debut and somebody saw something they liked (she was sent off at just 5-1). She's been freshened and has worked splendidly since including a bullet 4fs here Aug. 31 (:46.80, best of 50 that day). That shows she handles this track and D' Amato is a sharp 3 for his last 7 (43%) 2nd time out. Three of her 4 sibs are winners including Cat Talk (4 wins, $183K) and Major Smoke (4 wins, $120K, SP).HANSERELLA has had plenty of chances to be sure (22) but some of her best work has come recently including a nice 2nd here Aug. 7 and Bejarano sees fit to give it a go. Maybe the 23rd time's the charm? THAT'S A BINGO was no factor in her first 3 but she came back with a superb bullet 3f blowout here Aug. 28 (:34.40) and Talamo sees fit to ride. Maybe that work is a sign a light's gone on for her. Closer Looks >>
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8 A nice bunch goes for the 2yo male title here. ALBERTS HOPE and CELTIC MOON were just a smart 1-2 in the G2 Best Pal Aug. 4. They look absolutely legitimate and figure tough again, and maybe today CELTIC MOON can turn the tables. ALBERTS HOPE got first run on him into the lane in the Best Pal but 'MOON kept to his task gamely to dog 'HOPE to the wire. A super 1:11.40 6f work since says he's doing well. ALBERTS HOPE is 2 for 2 and the one to beat as he showed courage rebuffing 'MOON's challenge in the lane. CAN THE MAN gives Baffert a shot at his ridiculous total of 11 Futurity wins as the $320K son of Into Mischief came out firing to win his debut Aug. 17. That being said, the Beyer wasn't any great shakes (71). GUNS LOADED was 3rd not far behind the top 2 in the Best Pal, while Cal-bred CALIFORNIA CHROME comes off a smashing win in the Graduation where he got a big Beyer (83). INDEXICAL actually brings the best Beyer fig (84) into the race as he whipped maidens here Aug. 17 with blinkers added. Closer Looks >>
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9 OMEGA STAR ran on nicely to be 4th in the Real Good Deal after a slow start. It was his first outing in over 3 months so he can certainly improve. Remember, he was a SW at SA sprinting in the spring so he's got quality. Bejarano stays put, too. AMAZING HEARTED is a perfect 2-for-2 for Baffert and his comeback win here Aug. 3 was very nice (94 Beyer). That being said, Baffert offered him for a tag that day - there were no takers and now he does not risk him for a tag, but he was willing to lose him that day. And while this guy has shown talent he's facing a much tougher task and figures to be shorter than the 9-2 or 5-1 he was in his other 2 starts. RAISED A SECRET was a nice 3rd in the Real Good Deal Aug. 2 and then came back to beat a good group of Cal-bred optional claimers Aug. 21. He faces open foes today but he's sharp and fires every time. SPRING UP looks like a new horse here as he won both starts here in July for fun. Still, he's facing some toughies and while he looked good in those 2 wins the Beyers didn't come back all that strong (80, 74). Closer Looks >>
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10 LAKE MARACAIBO was knocking on the door with 4 straight 2nds on turf to start her careeer. She then tried BHP's main track but wasn't as sharp. Spawr has freshened her, moves her back to turf and has put plenty of nice works into her. Looks like the right way to end the meet. NICEGIRLSFNISHLAST showed talent in her only 2 starts, both on turf, last fall/winter. She hasn't run in a long time but Eurton is strong off this type of layoff (19%), Bejarano rides and she's worked well. FANTICOLA tries turf for the first time after chasing budding star Socialbug (won again here Saturday) July 21 and chasing the nice Tayrone Aug. 11. Her pedigree says turf and this trip should be no problem. See you all at the Fair. Closer Looks >>
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